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TOO MUCH BLUE

Lowetide
7 years ago
Jordan Oesterle is in the final year of his entry-level deal with the Edmonton Oilers. His superior foot speed and ability with the puck makes him an intriguing player—while his defensive shortcomings have him outside the NHL trying to refine his skills. Oesterle represents a group of prospects in Bakersfield who are reaching a crossroads, and most or all of these men could be exiting the system. Why? There are new pro’s coming from previous drafts and some of the current pro prospects will be washed away. Let’s have a look.

THE LOCKS

  1. Andrej Sekera—signed through 2020-21
  2. Oscar Klefbom—signed through 2022-23
  3. Adam Larsson—signed through 2020-21
  4. Darnell Nurse—signed through 2017-18, then RFA
Currently available intel suggests these four men represent the Oilers defense rolling out through the end of the decade. 

THE NHL OPTIONS

  1. Kris Russell—signed through 2016-17, then UFA. The Oilers may wish to sign him long term, but that probably comes after the expansion draft and after the McDavid/Draisaitl contract numbers are known.
  2. Brandon Davidson—signed through 2017-18, then RFA. A vulnerable player for expansion draft purposes, also possible Edmonton has him on their protect list. One growing concern: Injury.
  3. Eric Gryba—signed through 2016-17, then UFA. He was accommodating of the Oilers and that may result in another contract. Again, as in the case of Russell, that probably happens after expansion. 
  4. Mark Fayne—signed through 2017-18, value is at a low ebb. May be on the roster through the end of the term without a buyout—although veteran defensemen have increased value at the deadline.
  5. Matt Benning—signed through 2017-18, then RFA. I have listed him last among the current Oilers group, but in reality he is probably the closest to joining the sure things above. His making the team out of camp is a tell—management is betting it’s go time with Benning.
  6. Andrew Ference—signed through 2016-17, then UFA. He will not be re-signed.
    The Oilers in 2017-18 (at a guess) are likely to have the top four names, plus Benning, Davidson and Fayne (unless they can offload him). If the team signs Russell? That would make eight defensemen—and all of the AHL men staying put for another winter.

    CONDORS

    1. Griffin Reinhart—signed through 2016-17, then RFA. Unlikely the organization would give up on him so early, so expect a second contract and possibly an NHL job next fall. He would be waiver eligible in October 2017.
    2. Dillon Simpson—signed through 2016-17, then RFA. One gets the feeling Edmonton likes his progress, but finding a spot for him may be an issue. There could be a ‘value contract 7D’ spot for him next season, but that could also be Gryba’s spot.
    3. David Musil—signed through 2016-17, then RFA. He is in a tough spot, based mainly on the fact Edmonton has his skill set duplicated by top 10 picks in Nurse and Reinhart. I cannot see a way clear for him and would guess this is absolutely his final year in the organization. Hope he catches on somewhere, very smart defender.
    4. Jordan Oesterle—signed through 2016-17, then RFA with arb rights. I thought this would be a big camp for him, but the Oilers sent him down early and one wonders about his future. He has terrific foot speed, could return depending on how things go with the rest of this group. 
    5. Joey Laleggia—signed through 2016-17, then RFA. He is in a helluva spot moving forward with the organization (as you will see in a moment). As much as he can help with the puck, Laleggia is an undersized defender in a sea of giants. Does he bring enough offense to keep around? I don’t think he will get another contract.
    6. Ben Betker—signed through 2017-18, then RFA. Has an advantage in that he is a year behind the rest, and could survive based on that alone. He is not the most talented in the group, but has size and some skating ability.
    7. Mark Fraser—signed through 2016-17, then UFA. A one year solution, may sign another deal a year from now but it will be late (again) and is less likely next time.
    If we can agree the NHL Oilers will retain eight names (depending on expansion and the trade deadline), then culling the herd will happen here. I will guess that Reinhart, Simpson, Oesterle and Betker make the grade, giving Edmonton 12 names before their kids turn pro.

    SIGNING POSSIBILITIES AND TURNING PRO

    1. Caleb Jones—signed through 2019-20 (slide rule). He is having another strong junior season and displays the mobility NHL teams value. He has a chance.
    2. Ethan Bear—signed through 2019-20 (slide rule). Struggling offensively early this season, Bear is a righty and will no doubt get major chances in Bakersfield beginning next fall.
    3. William Lagesson—A 2014 draft pick who has progressed well and may be ready to turn pro in 2017. He will be 21 in the spring and after two college seasons, this would be a natural graduation.
    4. Ziyat Paigin—A 2015 draft pick who spiked offensively in year one after the draft, but has been injured for much of this season.
    5. Filip Berglund—A 2016 draft pick who turns 20 in May, he is playing in the SHL (Sweden’s top league) this season (10gp, 0-1-1). A righty, Edmonton may choose to bring him over and spend 2017-18 in the AHL.

    OILERS D NEXT SEASON

    Edmonton has 19 defenders on their 50-man list this year, but it is really 16 because:
    • Andrew Ference is inactive
    • Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones have been slide ruled
    So, if the Oilers decide to sign Lagesson and Paigin—meaning four new defensemen—then the NHL depth chart might look like this next fall (excluding additions):
    Oilers
    • Klebom—Larsson
    • Sekera—Davidson or Russell
    • Nurse—Benning
    • Fayne
    Condors
    • Reinhart—Oesterle
    • Paigin—Simpson
    • Caleb Jones—Ethan Bear
    • William Lagesson—Ben Betker
    • One additional AHL defender
    Meaning David Musil, Joey Laleggia and Mark Fraser are likely to move on. This is before trades, et cetera, and in my opinion means we may see some real turnover of the prospect group in Bakersfield one year from now. For men like Jordan Oesterle and David Musil and Joey Laleggia, this is a massive season. If Edmonton adds Dylan McIlrath tomorrow, the plot thickens.
    (Oesterle photo by Mark Williams)

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