“One issue that might be flying under the radar is how Connor McDavid’s play has been negatively affecting the team’s overall performance and could be dragging down his personal and the team’s overall results. He’s clearly been injured since the start of the regular season, as his numbers have been poor before and after his injury against Winnipeg in the fifth game of the year. It’s a tough situation for him and the team, as he needs time to recover from whatever bothers him. But because the roster has been constructed so poorly and because there’s so much pressure on the Oilers to compete for a championship, it’s difficult to shut down the superstar player.”

“McDavid’s on-ice share of expected goals is 10.5 percent lower this season than the last three seasons, currently sitting at 52.22 percent – the fourth lowest on the Oilers among forwards. Offensively, the Oilers have seen a drop in their rate of chances with McDavid on the ice, going from 3.42 expected goals per hour to 3.01 – a 12.0 percent decrease. And defensively, the team’s rate of expected goals against has increased by almost 13 percent with McDavid on the ice. Again – this is way out of expected ranges for McDavid and can negatively impact the Oilers’ odds of out-scoring opponents and winning games.”

“At an individual level, we’ve also seen a drop in McDavid’s ability to create and finish chances this season, with his own rate of shots per hour dropping by 34.0% compared to his previous three seasons and his rate of points per hour falling by 42.1% from 2.90 to 1.68 per hour. Put another way – McDavid has gone from a consistent superstar game-breaker to more of a third-line producer – a major issue considering the high levels of competition he regularly faces. The team spends less time with the puck, as reflected by his on-ice shot-share numbers. He’s not shooting as often as he does. And he’s nowhere near his scoring levels.”