How about a bit of matinee action to get your Saturday afternoon going? That’s what we get today as the Edmonton Oilers square off against the Dallas Stars for the first of three meetings this season. As we know, our beloved Oilers knocked Dallas out of the playoffs last season, and I’d bet on them being a motivated group for this first matchup since.
The last time we watched the Oilers take on the Stars was in Game 6 of the Western Conference Final. It was the game where we watched Connor McDavid dangle in a phone booth, Zach Hyman pick up the game-winner, and Stuart Skinner hold the fort for 40 minutes while the Stars applied pressure in waves. It was as intense as it gets. I was lucky enough to be at that game, and I think the final minute may have been one of the loudest hockey moments of my life. It was electric.
Even though Saturday’s game won’t have the same vibes, pressure or heart-pounding stress that came with those playoff moments, what will be the same is the challenge at hand. As expected, the Dallas Stars are once again a very good team that finds themselves atop the Central Division standings. If the Oilers are going to extend their win streak to three games, they’ll need to be at their best or risk being burned by a Stars group that is expected to contend once again.
We saw it during the playoffs. Dallas’ game plan is to force their opponent to turn the puck over and move it back up the ice with pace. The strategy gets them all kinds of odd-man rushes and clean zone entries and will generally be a menace if you’re not prepared. It’s a plan that works well, and it’s a lock to expect some variation of the same idea here today. From an Oilers perspective, making good puck choices will be mission critical.
Through their first five games of the season, the Stars have a 4-1 record and a +6 goal differential, beating the likes of Nashville, Seattle, San Jose, and the New York Islanders before losing their last outing 3-2 to Washington. To this point, the 14 goals that the Stars have scored have mostly come at even strength and been contributed by nine different players. By comparison, the Oilers’ 11 goals have come from eight different skaters.
Looking at their team stats page, the thing that stands out most is that their top nine has point production littered all over it. Even though their first line of Hintz, Johnston and Robertson is responsible for nearly half of Dallas’ goals, there won’t be too many easy shifts for the Oilers’ defence, regardless of who’s on the ice. The Stars have players with points throughout the group, and when you combine that with a strong foundation in the form of their newly signed star goaltender, there’s little doubt this will be Edmonton’s toughest test yet.
If the Oilers are going to win this hockey game, they’ll have to be responsible at both ends of the rink. To this point in the early season, Edmonton has scored fewer goals while allowing more than twice as many as the Stars have, and you don’t have to be a rocket surgeon to figure out that’s tough math on the Oilers’ side of the equation. Not only will the boys have to find a way to score, but they cannot give the Stars free chances because of sloppy puck protection. This game is hard enough as it is without the boys finding ways to shoot themselves in the foot.
From the crease outward, we’re going to need everyone’s best. Time to level up.
Let’s see what the numbers say.

THE NUMBERS

OILERS
STARS
RECORD
2-3-0
4-1-0
WIN/LOSS STREAK
w2
L1
GOALS FOR
11
14
GOALS AGAINST
20
8
POWER PLAY%
7.7
5.9
PENALTY KILL%
57.9
94.7
AVG. SHOTS/FOR
32.2
26.4
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST
25.2
29.6
TEAM SAVE%
.888
.945
CORSI FOR%
61.31
49.77
PDO
0.946
1.039
TEAM SHOOTING%
5.84
9.43
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%
59.37
45.39
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)
  • Dallas took two of the three regular season meetings between the two clubs last year before the Oilers went on to win the 2024 Western Conference Final in six games. While today’s matinee is the first of three meetings between the Oilers and Stars, these two teams will not meet again until March when the Stars visit Rogers Place on the 8th and 26th respectively.
  • The regular season matchup between these two teams over the last handful of years have also been tight with the Oilers holding a 12-11-2 record over the last 25 meetings. Including last season’s postseason win, the Oilers have won four of their last six visits to the American Airlines Center.
  • Looking at milestone watch, Zach Hyman is only one point away of 400 in his career, while Leon Draisaitl is a single goal shy of 350 for his career.
  • The Stars are currently 1-for-17 on the power play through five games, meaning they’re struggling just as much as the Oilers are right not. But in the same way that I believe the Oilers will snap out of it, it seems like only a matter of time before the dam breaks for the Stars too.
  • Corey Perry leads all active Oilers in career games played (69) and points produced (48) against the Stars.

LINEUPS…

Oilers

Draisaitl – McDavid – Hyman
Janmark – Nugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson
Podkolzin – Ryan – Perry
J. Skinner – Henrique – Brown
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Skinner
Kris Knoblauch made an interesting line combo adjustment yesterday, putting Mattias Janmark up on the second line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Viktor Arvidsson. Who knows how well if at all this change will work in getting that second line going, but I still think the Oilers’ best lineup has McDavid and Draisaitl anchoring their own line instead of playing together. The worry I have is that Dallas will be able to keep our superstars quiet, and the rest of the lineup won’t be able to generate enough chances to break through. That’s a big problem when going up against a team as deep as the Stars.

Stars

Robertson – Hintz – Johnston
Marchment – Duchene – Dadonov
Benn – Bourque – Stankoven
Back – Steel – Blackwell
Heiskanen – Harley
Lindell – Lundkvist
Smith – Lyubushkin
Oettinger
With Jake Oettinger now signed for the next eight-seasons, the expectation in Dallas is that the team will be able to compete for the Stanley Cup on annual basis. As I mentioned above, the Stars are a hell of a hockey team and the Oilers will need to be at their best if they’re going to turn two straight wins into three. Unlike the opponents Edmonton has faced before them, the Dallas Stars are likely to do a much better job of capitalizing on mistakes, which tells me that the Oilers will need to take care of the puck more carefully than they’ve been able to so far.

TONIGHT…

Photoshop: Tom Kostiuk
Game Day Prediction: The Oilers and Stars trade goals early before Edmonton pulls away to a thrilling 7-2 win.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: The Oilers’ special teams will be a big part of the result regardless of which way the score goes.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Both Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Viktor Arvidsson will pick up their first goals of the year.

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