Waiver Eligibility & the Bakersfield Condors

As the Edmonton Oilers enter the back half of the 2016-17
season, it’s going to be worth watching how they handle a number of prospects
currently in the AHL. Most of the team’s significant minor-leaguers are in
their last season of waiver exemption—which means it’s either impress now, or
go into training camp next fall as an outsider.

Jujhar Khaira is
now playing his third season of pro hockey, which means that he will need to be
either kept on the NHL roster next fall or exposed on the waiver wire. The
22-year-old is a natural centre who has spent time on the wing. He isn’t overly
fast but does have the size (6’3”, 214 pounds) to potentially succeed in the
NHL anyway.

His offensive game appears to have developed well over his
time in the minors, too:

There would be risk in putting Khaira on waivers, though it
isn’t unprecedented for big 22-year-olds with this level of scoring to go
unclaimed. Chicago’s Mark McNeill, a 6’2”, 212-pound centre and first-rounder
back in 2011, slipped through waivers this year after scoring 0.75 points/game
last season.

I doubt it comes to that. Khaira’s a pretty reasonable fit
in a fourth-line/end-of-roster role, and I’d guess the Oilers find space for
him. It would be nice to see him land a call-up before the end of the year to
see what he can do in the majors, and it could happen: He’s probably in the mix
with Taylor Beck and Anton Slepyshevas the top trio of recall possibilities up
front.

David Musil cleared
waivers this fall. He started the year as a healthy scratch in the AHL, and
while he’s worked his way into a significant role with the Condors it’s hard to
imagine him being in the Oilers plans. He’s big and smart, but in the modern
NHL it’s pretty hard for a guy with subpar skating and puckmoving to make the
grade. At least as importantly, though, he’s one of approximately a bazillion
left-shot defencemen applying for work and unlike the others he has already
cleared waivers.

There isn’t room for all of Griffin Reinhart, Jordan Oesterle and Dillon Simpson on next year’s roster, which means some combination
of promotions, waivers and/or outright departures.

Reinhart’s point production isn’t good, though Bakersfield
coach Gerry Fleming suggested in an interview on 630 CHED Thursday that he’s
been snakebitten lately despite joining the rush and getting some chances. In
some ways, Reinhart’s strengths/weaknesses are the same as Musil’s, with the key
distinction being that his weaknesses are less pronounced.  

Edmonton paid a premium to land Reinhart, which suggests
real belief in the player; I’d guess he gets his shot next year. Importantly,
his entry-level deal runs out this summer, meaning that next year he can be
signed cheaply and the Oilers won’t have to worry about bonus cushion issues.

Oesterle is almost the opposite of Reinhart as a player. His
speed and ability to move the puck are his primary strengths; the big weakness
is size/strength. He showed really well during an NHL run in 2015-16 but has
had issues this year (he’s only played 14 games) and so far his season has to
be regarded as a disappointment. It’s going to take some work to squeeze him on
to next year’s roster—both with the abundance of left-shot defenders and with
some smaller guys (Matt Benning for sure, Kris Russell likely) in the mix
already. Of the three, he’s the guy who seems most likely to be trade bait,
especially with the entry of Las Vegas into the league straining defensive
depth around the NHL.

Simpson falls somewhere between the extremes of Oesterle and
Reinhart. He’s progressed like clockwork every season prior to this one and is
like Brandon Davidson in the sense that he does a lot of things well without
having a standout quality, though skating is more of a concern with Simpson
than it was with Davidson.

Again, the problem is as to where he fits. There’s at least
some chance he clears waivers, but he can move the puck while playing a smart
defensive game and that’s a guy a bunch of teams might have time for.

Finally, Laurent Brossoit is having a tough season. He’s been outperformed of late by
college addition Nick Ellis in 2016-17, though after two very strong AHL
campaigns it would be the height of silliness to write Brossoit off after fewer
than 20 games. He’ll need to clear waivers to be demoted next season, so as
long as his play improves down the stretch he stands a very strong chance of
landing on the Oilers’ NHL roster.

Cam Talbot’s play this year probably helps his case, in that it makes the No. 2 goalie role a bit less crucial. Jonas Gustavsson
hasn’t been very good when used, but hasn’t been used much, and if that’s the
bar for backup goaltender it’s a bar that Brossoit should be able to clear.