Detroit’s Farm 2003 to 2007

1. Did they have hugely successful farm teams? This five year period did see an improvement in performance for Detroit’s AHL team. They did make the third round of the Calder Cup playoffs two times during the 5-year period. 
2. Who were their best AHL players? This five year period was much stronger than the last one, with some outstanding NHL calibre players turning pro. Niklas Kronwall, Jimmy Howard, Valtteri Filppula and Johan Franzen are among the exceptional group of grads.
3. How did you establish the criteria for prospects who became NHL players? I used 200 NHL games as an entry to "actual NHL player" so some of the first round picks fell well below that (which is typical of any organization).
4. During these 5 years, which players (and player type) reached that level? In our previous look, only Jiri Fischer was drafted and reached the 200 NHL game level. This time the draft was a major source of useful NHLers for Detroit. All of Niklas Kronwall, Tomas Kopecky, Tomas Fleischmann, Valtteri Filppula, Johan Franzen and Jimmy Howard have gone on to quality NHL careers. Jonathan Ericsson and Kyle Quincey are extremely likely to pass the 200 game mark and will be included in the group as we discuss them for our purposes. From this five year period, only Matt Ellis and Brett Lebda were undrafted free agents and then went on to play in 200 or more games. 
5. Is that a large number of players in a 5-year period to have NHL careers? 10 players in a 5-year period who go on to have NHL careers as regulars would seem to be an average to above average total. Add to that the quality of these players and I think it’s reasonable to suggest that the Detroit farm system was pumping out at a high rate during this period of time. 
6. Did they have a lot of turnover at the coaching position? A little less turnover this time, Danton Cole and then Greg Ireland. Both went on to further coaching assigments, but neither emerged as an NHL head coach ala Mike Babcock in the previous 5 season stretch. 
7. What happened to all those draft picks once they arrived in the AHL? All of them (save Franzen) played in the minors–at least a season and usually two to three full seasons. The Red Wings appear to use the entry level contract as a three year audition in the AHL, with some callups here and there as a reward. Johan Franzen didn’t play in the AHL, but he also played in Europe until his mid-20’s (continuing the Zetterberg/Datsyuk development system we discussed last time). To make the point clear: Detroit held back the water on very good young talent (Jimmy Howard, Tomas Kopecky, Jiri Hudler) for years, and even men like Kronwall and Filppula played a year or more in the AHL. Of the 44 players drafted in the period 2000-04 (the same number exactly as the previous 5 year period) 12 players have made it to the NHL for at least a cup of coffee (one less than the previous group). 
8. How many first round failures did they have? None. Detroit had only one first round pick in the 5-year period 00-04 and it was Niklas Kronwall. If we’re ever looking for an outer marker for a nice run of second and third round picks in a 5-year span, Detroit’s 00-04 is a killer. 
9. Who were the best draft picks from the years 2000 to 2004? Niklas Kronwall, Valtteri Filppula, Johan Franzen and Jimmy Howard. None in the group are Z or Datsyuk, but we can only hope that a draft cluster like Marincin, Hamilton and Pitlick turn into that group. Detroit’s scouts deserve monuments–they’re really good.
10. Who went straight to the NHL without going to the minors? Same as last time, the Euro’s. In the last look, it was Datsyuk and Zetterberg, this time Johan Franzen. And even that is misleading, Franzen was 24 when he was drafted in 2004.
11. How old were these Euro’s when they came over and stuck with the Detroit Red Wings? Zetterberg was 21, Datsyuk was 23 and Franzen was 25. All stepped right in. 
12. Three Euro’s developed this way in 10 years isn’t much. Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen. It’ll do. 
13. Anything else? Red Wings were less active in free agency during this period, owing to the impressive grads and then later the cap system. Still, they did bring in free agents like Daniel Cleary on look-see’s and of course were great at that too. It sounds tiresome, but winning breeds winning and a guy like Cleary might have gotten two or three invites but the Detroit letter probably meant more.  
14. So, in the 10 year period we’re looking at, how many talents could be considered close to or de facto "impact" players? I’d argue Zetterberg and Datsyuk are both impact players, and that Kronwall, Franzen, Filppula and Jimmy Howard are above average NHL players. That’s six in-house top drawer "keepers" for Detroit.
15. Anything else? Yes. See below.

Ken Holland

• We don’t put an emphasis on size. If you look at Darren Helm, Zetterberg or Valtteri Filppula, they were all weak little kids, but they had hockey sense. We knew that they would get strong with time. They were all world junior-type players. Not all of our picks pan out, but the ones that do have skills and good hockey sense.
• Also, because our team is good, we don’t have to rush players. Filppula was a regular in the Finnish League and when he came over, we put him in the AHL for a year. He had a good rookie season there and the next year he makes it as a regular with our team. You only make our team when you’re ready. You don’t make it just because you were a second round draft pick and you have entitlement. You make our team because you are ready to play.
• We are always on the lookout for players who have attained a level of success, but might be a bit down on their luck or are looking for another opportunity. In that regard, we were fortunate to get the likes of Osgood, Stuart, Cleary and Darren McCarty among others, who helped us win the Cup this season.

Edmonton’s Farm 2003 to 2007

1. Did they have hugely successful farm teams? Yes, but with an explanation. During htis period, Edmonton shared their farm team with other clubs, and in one of those seasons the shared team made the Calder Cup finals. The club also missed the playoffs twice during this period. 
2. Who were their best AHL players? High draft picks finding their way and guys they traded for like Raffi Torres. Edmonton had several first rounders on most of their AHL teams during this period. 
3. How did you establish the criteria for prospects who became NHL players? I used 200 NHL games as an entry to "actual NHL player" so some of the first round picks fell well below that (which is typical of any organization).
4. During these 5 years, which players (and player type) reached that level? A shorter but more impressive list than the previous 5 year period for Edmonton. Ales Hemsky, Brad Winchester, Matt Lombardi (who they didn’t sign), Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene, Zack Stortini, Kyle Brodziak, Tom Gilbert, Raffi Torres and Jeff Woywitka.
5. Which Oiler drafted players played in the AHL and then had 200+ NHL games? Winchester, Lombardi, Hemsky, Stoll, Greene, Stortini and Brodziak. 
6. Is that a large number of players from the AHL to have NHL careers? The number isn’t as impressive as the quality of player. I’d suggest that Hemsky, Lombardi, Stoll and Greene have emerged as quality NHL players.
7. Did they have a lot of turnover at the coaching position? Huge turnover, owing mostly to the shared teams. Geoff Ward, Don Lever, Todd Richards, Claude Julien and others spent time coaching Oiler kids in the AHL during the 5-year period. I do believe it had an impact on the young men drafted by Edmonton but have no idea how to quantify it. Suffice to say that Detroit didn’t have the same issues during this period.
8. What happened to all those draft picks once they arrived in the AHL? Edmonton drafted a gigantic number of players in the 5-year period 2000-04: 57 names were called plus Robin Kovar who was a hanging chad. 25 if them have appeared in an NHL game, and those numbers (57/25) are both superior to the previous 5 drafts (47/19).
9. How many first round failures did they have? The Oilers 95–99 had six draft failures, so there’s no way they could do as badly 2000-04. Right? Of the 6 first rounders between 2000-04, I’d say Ales Hemsky is a ringing success, Devan Dubnyk is tracking toward being a plus, and Alexei Mikhnov, Jesse Niinimaki, Marc Pouliot and Robbie Schremp are draft failures. So, it’s better but there’s definitely room for improvement. 
10. Who were the best draft picks from the years 2000 to 2004? Ales Hemsky, Matt Lombardi, Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene. I’ll mention Dubnyk because he may one day belong here.
11. How many draft picks went straight to the NHL without going to the minors? Ales Hemsky, although Matt Greene spent very little time in the minors too.
12. How many came right to the NHL at 20? Hemsky was 19.
13. Anything else?  As with the previous look, Edmonton rushes everyone, even the defensemen. Matt Greene left college a year early, spent 26 games in the AHL (on a shared team) and then started his NHL career. I’d bet you a 2-4 his development would have been miles different in Detroit, and those who remember the mistakes young Greene made during the deep run in 2006 spring can attest to a need for more experience. It’s no small item.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

1. In the post cap era, both Edmonton and Detroit rely on their farm teams. However, the Red Wings appear to plan on having their kids play most or all of their entry level deals in the AHL (with a callup or two during that period). The Oilers elevate their players as soon as (or before) they’re ready, and this is true throughout the study. There’s nothing specifically wrong with that (I firmly believe the Oilers should have kept Taylor Hall last fall and should keep RNH based on what we’ve seen so far this fall) but the Oiler rookies are less likely to be effective plug and play types upon recall to the NHL.
2. Detroit found a way to use minor free agency (the Draper group) in a way Edmonton and other bottom feeders were pehaps less able to do in the pre-CBA period. Although Edmonton did sign Rem Murray and MA Bergeron and Ty Conklin along the way, Detroit seemed better able to procure "plug and play" types like Draper (and in later years Daniel Cleary) that were rejected by other NHL clubs. Comment #3 from Ken Holland above speaks to this point. 
3. The salary cap made Detroit a more effective draft and procurement team. Their assembly line development system doesn’t care which of Justin Abdelkader, Cory Emmerton or Darren Helm develops into a keeper, just that one of them does or that another forward forces one of them down if required. It’s a great system if the scouts can keep the conveyor belt rolling. Edmonton is not at this level, although recent efforts by Stu MacGregor and staff have them headed in that general direction (we’ll discuss this more in the final installment).
4. Almost all of the really good players skip the AHL. That’s a league for developing vital role players, former scorers who need to learn the finer points and embrace a new role on their team, or late developing goalies in need of more sorties before maturing.
5. Developing kids in Europe is possible for Detroit, but they do things in a unique way. Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Franzen did not come to North America on the first available airplane. Detroit appears to (I have no evidence) have found a home for each player to develop on a specific time line. That’s a huge item, Oilers lost Jani Rita and one of the reasons might have been riding pine in the SM-Liiga.
6. Detroit built a huge part of their team with second and third round picks early in the 2000s. Whatever else we learn from this, "luck" and "Detroit" are in the same sentence enough that we have to suspect "luck" may have a friend called "skill" in Motown. 
7. In the 10 years I’ve looked at to prepare for this comparison, Edmonton selected 6th overall two times and had one dozen first round picks. Detroit had 4 first round picks, the highest being 25th overall. And yet it is Detroit that drafted Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk.

• I really could not think of a better development curve for either player. Entering the NHL at 23 and 22 respectively, Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg were both given the opportunity to mature in professional leagues before their rookie seasons in the NHL.