What could the Oilers expect in a Jesse Puljujarvi trade?

Jesse Puljujarvi appears to be headed back to Bakersfield after a disappointing start to the season in Edmonton. His one goal in 11 games isn’t what many expected from him in a season where the Oilers are desperate for scoring wingers.

Puljujarvi’s development hasn’t gone as planned, but Oilers haven’t set him up for success since drafting him fourth overall in 2016.

I’m sure both Puljujarvi and the Oilers aren’t happy with the situation.

Puljujarvi hasn’t averaged more than 13:22 a season in parts of three years in Edmonton. It’s clear Todd McLellan doesn’t trust Puljujarvi, opting for players like Ty Rattie, Drake Caggiula, or Alex Chiasson instead.

The Oilers haven’t received the type of talent they thought they picked fourth overall in 2016. Players drafted near Puljujarvi have surpassed him at this point. Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine are bonafide stars. Pierre-Luc Dubois is on track in Columbus. Matthew Tkachuk and Clayton Keller, both picked after Puljujarvi, are already talented scorers in the NHL. Mikhail Sergachev had a stellar rookie season with the Tampa Bay Lightning last year, scoring 40 points in a limited role.

The Oiler must get value out of Puljujarvi. Spending time in the minors at 20 doesn’t write him off as an NHL player, but it wouldn’t be surprising if both the player and agent wanted a fresh start elsewhere with the way Edmonton’s handled Puljujarvi.

What could the Oilers get in return for Puljujarvi? Former high-draft picks have been traded before, so we can refer previous trades of to gauge a potential return.

Puljujarvi is in his third season after being drafted. For the purpose of this exercise, I’m limiting comparisons to top-10 drafted forwards traded no later than during or after their fourth season after being drafted with scoring like Puljujarvi (0.25 points per game).

Gilbert Brule
Drafted:6th (2005)
PPG before trade: 0.22
Traded for: Raffi Torres

The Blue Jackets picked Brule sixth overall in 2005 and moved him four years after later. Brule didn’t score much in his time with Columbus and only played 16 AHL games. Columbus traded Brule after a 9-point campaign to Edmonton for Raffi Torres. Torres had just scored 15 goals and 34 points the year before and had a 27-goal season to his name.

James Sheppard
Drafted:9th (2006)
PPG before trade: 0.22
Traded for: Third-round draft pick

Minnesota traded Sheppard four years after drafting him. He had a strong year in the QMJHL after being drafted but couldn’t translate that beyond a couple mediocre seasons in Minnesota. The Wild got a third-round pick from San Jose in return for Sheppard.

Nikita Filatov
Drafted: 6th (2008)
PPG before trade: 0.30
Traded for: Third-round draft pick

The Blue Jackets traded Filatov just three years after drafting him. Columbus got a third-round pick from Ottawa. Filatov didn’t have much success in Ottawa either. Filatov scored well in the minors but not in the NHL. He eventually returned to Russia, leaving the NHL with an infamous quote.

Magnus Paajarvi
Drafted:10th (2009)
PPG before trade:0.36
Traded for: With a second-round draft pick for David Perron

Paajarvi had more success than Puljujarvi before being traded to St. Louis, but most of that came in his 15-goal rookie season. Paajarvi scored 0.28 points per game the next two seasons combined. Edmonton traded Paajarvi along with a second-round pick to St. Louis for David Perron after his third NHL season. Paajarvi was in the fourth year after being drafted but the Oilers still got solid value for a disappointing pick.

Nino Niederreiter
Drafted:5th (2010)
PPG before trade:0.05
Traded for: Cal Clutterbuck and a third-round draft pick

The Islanders completely mismanaged Niederreiter. After scoring 1 point in 55 games in 2011-12, the Islanders kept him in the AHL for 2012-13. Niederreiter’s camp was understandably upset at the Islander’s treatment and requested a trade. The Islanders traded Niederreiter to Minnesota for Cal Clutterbuck and a third-round draft pick the following summer. Clutterbuck was a decent bottom-six guy who hit a lot. Niederreiter developed into a two-way guy capable of 40-50 points in Minnesota.

Niederreiter was traded three years after being drafted, the season Jesse Puljujarvi is currently in.

It’s hard to get value for a high draft pick after they’ve struggled to score in the NHL. The good news is most of these players (Brule, Sheppard, Paajarvi) were traded a year from where Puljujarvi currently is in his career. There’s time for him to turn it around. If the Oilers wanted to make a move soon, they could expect a decent middle-six guy or perhaps a top-six guy if they packaged a draft pick with Puljujarvi. Peter Chiarelli needs to win now. A veteran forward who can score 40 points might be attractive to him.

Patience could be the best option. Jonathan Drouin requested a trade three years after being drafted by the Tampa Bay Lightning. Drouin scored 0.45 points per game at that point, far more than Puljujarvi, but the Lightning didn’t trade him. Drouin returned next season and scored 53 points. The Lightning traded him the following summer for Mikhail Sergachev, who was a year removed from being drafted ninth overall by Montreal.

I’d look for other young players who haven’t established themselves, like a diet version of the Maxi Domi-Alex Galchenyuk trade.

Wait too long and you’re looking at a third-round draft pick or bottom-six forward in return.