WHO IS THE BEST GOALIE IN THE 2016 DRAFT?

7 years ago

As much as we love hockey, sussing out goalies and their ability to stop the puck is a mystery to pretty much everyone. If you skim over past drafts trying to find successful patterns, the reasonable conclusion is for your favorite team to ‘get lucky’ and count it as a skill. Let’s look at last year’s projections and figure out this season.

Last spring, I posted my picks for the best goalies in the 2015 draft. For me, save percentage is the best way to assess goalies (EV strength SP being ideal).

Source

LAST YEAR’S PROJECTION AND WHERE THEY WERE CHOSEN

Daniel Vladar (Cze2) 8GP, .933 (No. 75 to Boston)
Matej Tomek (NAHL) 33GP, .928 (No. 90 to Philadelphia)
Evan Smith (NAHL) 15GP, .923 (No. 205 to Nashville)
Adin Hill (WHL) 46GP, .921 (No. 76 to Arizona)
Ilya Samsonov (MHL) 18GP, .918 (No. 22 to Washington)
Veini Vehvilainen (SML-JR) 17GP, .918 (undrafted, eligible this year)
Denis Godla (Slovakia U20) 16GP, .915 (undrafted)
Michael McNiven (OHL) 24GP, .914 (undrafted)
Ryan Bednard (NAHL) 37GP, .913 (No. 206 to Florida)
Jordan Papirny (WHL) 59GP, .910 (undrafted, eligible this year)
Chris Birdsall (USHL) 30GP, .910 (undrafted, eligible this year)
Felix Sandstrom (Swe Super Elite) 14GP, .907 (No. 70 to Philadelphia)
MacKenzie Blackwood (OHL) 51GP, .906 (No. 42 to New Jersey)
Rylan Toth (WHL) 56GP, .904 (undrafted, eligible this year)
Callum Booth (QMJHL) 41GP, .900 (No. 93 to Carolina)
Luke Opilka (USHL) 14GP, .900 (No. 146 to St. Louis)
Samuel Montembeault (QMJHL) 52GP, .891 (No. 77 to Florida)

These goalies are ranked by save percentage. If you recall, a goalie like Samsonov was rated much higher than any of the men I have listed ahead of him.

Source

Samsonov was chosen out of the MHL—a fairly new Russian junior league. Six of my 17 names in 2015 were not drafted, and 12 names not on the list were chosen:

Joren Van Pottelberghe, Detroit No. 110 overall
Ales Stezka, Minnesota No. 111 overall
Karel Vejmelka, Nashville No. 145 overall
Kris Oldham, Tampa Bay No. 153 overall
Markus Ruusu, Dallas No. 163 overall
Garrett Metcalf, Anaheim No. 169 overall
Erik Kallgren, Arizona No. 183 overall
Adam Huska, NY Rangers No. 184 overall
Ivan Fedotov, Philadelphia No. 188 overall
Jake Kupsky, San Jose No. 193 overall
Joey Daccord, Ottawa No. 199 overall
Miroslav Svoboda, Edmonton No. 208 overall

Good grief that is a lot of goalies. I count 23, two more than in 2014. Finding goalies is a moving target, guess we shouldn’t be surprised so many get selected each summer.

2016 LIST

I am once again using SP to select the list’s order, but this season have separated them by leagues and or levels.

PRO LEAGUES

Veini Vehvilainen (SML) .925
Filip Gustavsson (SHL) .910

JUNIOR LEAGUES

Jeremy Helvig (OHL) .929
Mikhail Berdin (MHL) .928
Tyler Parsons (OHL) .921
Daniel Marmenlind (SuperElite) .920
Julio Billia (QMJHL) .919
Carter Hart (WHL) .918
Zach Sawchenko (WHL) .916
Rylan Toth (WHL) .912
Jordan Papirny (WHL) .910
Stephen Dhillon (OHL) .908
Brody Willms (WHL) .906
Joseph Woll (USHL) .898
Logan Thompson (WHL) .898
Evan Fitzpatrick (QMJHL) .896
Joseph Raaymakers (OHL) .891
Evan Cormier (OHL) .890
Evan Sarthou (WHL) .888
Cody Porter (WHL) .885
Troy Timpano (OHL) .878
Filip Larsson (SuperElite) .872
Dylan Wells (OHL) .871

TIER TWO LEAGUES

Niilo Halonen (SML Jr) .931
Adam Brizgala (Cze 2) .929
Jack Lafontaine (NAHL) .921
Leevi Laakso (SML Jr) .910
Matthew Murray (AJHL) .910
Wouter Peeters (Austria U18) unavailable

SUMMARY

Who would you take first? I tell you, those fellows playing pro in Europe must be pretty damned good. And while I like Helvig in the OHL (great league), he played fewer than 30 games. Here is my list:

Veini Vehvilainen (SML) .925
Carter Hart (WHL) .918
Mikhail Berdin (MHL) .928
Filip Gustavsson (SHL) .910
Tyler Parsons (OHL) .921

I like Hart, but Berdin had a stronger season than Samsonov did a year ago in the same league. Not a lot of chatter about him, he is a rail (6.02 163 according to Elite Prospects). Then again, maybe the Swedish pro is the right choice—or Parsons from the OHL.

The Finn? Well, my goodness that is a tremendous save percentage. One thing I am fairly comfortable in saying: Evan Fitzpatrick will probably go before most of those five names. Evaluating goalies is a moving target. As was the case last year, I suggest you bet Nashville. Which goalie do you like the most?