Should Leon Draisaitl or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins play with Connor McDavid?

One of @Leon Draisaitl or @Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will play with @Connor McDavid. The Oilers forward depth demands it. Ken Holland said as much in an interview with The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent-Bowman near the draft in June. Dave Tippett echoed this in his introductory press conference, complimenting the McDavid-Draisaitl connection, but also said he’s not stuck on playing the two together in the same presser. Who should play beside McDavid? Draisaitl or Nugent-Hopkins?

Draisaitl and McDavid obviously work really well together. Both Todd McLellan and Ken Hitchcock played them together a ton, and it sounds like Dave Tippett plans to as well. Draisaitl has clearly been the preferred option across two, and likely three, head coaches.

Both Draisaitl and RNH spent at least 350 five-on-five minutes with McDavid last season. Draisaitl had the bulk of the minutes beside McDavid. Draisaitl, RNH, and McDavid also spent 35 five-on-five minutes total as a trio. They outscored the opposition 5-1 while significantly outshooting teams as well. A couple of those goals come from expiring power plays, such as this Draisaitl goal against Dallas in March that was technically five-on-five.

The Oilers can’t play McDavid, Draisaitl, and RNH together unless Holland wants Second Line Center Cooper Marody to become a thing. But down a goal or protecting a lead in the last minute is a good time to deploy this nuclear option.

McDavid faces the opposition’s best every night. There’s a good argument for giving McDavid the best winger to help win the toughest matchups in hockey. If McDavid and one of Draisaitl or RNH can give the Oilers a big edge against the top players in the league, the rest of the lineup just has to break even against secondary matchups to give the team a chance.

McDavid faces matchup centres and defencemen every night. His most common opponents feature tough-minute players from most Pacific teams and recent Stanley Cup champion Colton Parayko. McDavid is one of, if not the, best players in the league, but can you ask him to take on this kind of competition without Draisaitl?

The Oilers have opted to give McDavid either Draisaitl or RNH, but mostly Draisaitl, the past three seasons. You have to go back to McDavid’s rookie year to find a season where he didn’t spend significant five-on-five minutes with Draisaitl. McDavid and Draisaitl produce wonderfully together. They can take on the league’s best and win that battle most nights. The problem is the Oilers have hoped the rest of the roster won’t give it all back, a losing bet for the past two seasons.

McDavid, Draisaitl, and RNH all had fantastic seasons in 2018-19, but the Oilers didn’t fare as well as they normally have with McDavid on the ice, without Draisaitl, compared to previous years. That’s a huge issue. The Oilers played 216 minutes with McDavid on the ice and neither Draisaitl or RNH accompanying him. They were outscored 13-6 and outshot 129-97. The Oilers should be crushing the McDavid minutes and making sure he returns to 2016-2018 levels should be at the top of Holland and Tippett’s list.

Maybe McDavid does need some help to take on the opposition’s best. McDavid and Draisaitl outscored teams 57-44 five-on-five this season, but McDavid was fine without Draisaitl or Nugent Hopkins in prior seasons.

McDavid spent most of his rookie year with Jordan Eberle, Benoit Pouliot, Nail Yakupov, and Patrick Maroon. They outshot and outscored their opposition, although not to the same extent McDavid and Draisaitl have. Teams also had to game plan for a team with McDavid and Taylor Hall, RNH, Draisaitl, and Eberle other than just McDavid and who ever is running shotgun with him.

Edmonton’s been outscored when either Draisaitl and RNH are on the ice without McDavid. 2015-16 is the lone year the Draisaitl outshot and outscored teams without McDavid, but that was with nearly 900 minutes with Hall. Draisaitl and RNH manage some solid individual scoring rates, but neither can stay afloat in terms of shots or goals without McDavid. RNH’s 1.82 points per 60 at 5-on-5 last season is good considering the unimpressive supporting cast when McDavid and Drasaitl aren’t on the ice, but he still needs help. RNH spent a bunch of that time with Alex Chiasson, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Milan Lucic. Predictably, the Oilers were mostly outshot and outscored except for, surprisingly, the Lucic-RNH combination.

McDavid and Draisaitl work very well together. Draisaitl’s scoring surges with McDavid and together they easily outshoot and outscore the opposition. Draisaitl has elite scoring rates when he’s with McDavid. Without McDavid, Draisaitl’s scoring isn’t elite but he’s still produced near a top-line level from 2015-2018. Some of 2015-16 can be attributed to the 890 five-on-five minutes attached to Hall, but Draisaitl had much less help in 2016-17 and 2017-18 away from McDavid and still produced at a top-six level. That’s while playing with Lucic, Drake Caggiula, Jujhar Khaira, Ryan Strome, and Mike Cammalleri.

McDavid and Draisaitl were united for the first time in 2016-17. The Oilers made the playoffs and were a game away from the Western Conference Finals. It feels like the Oilers have been chasing that magic ever since, relying on McDavid and Draisaitl to destroy worlds and hoping the rest of the roster can tread water while they’re resting on the bench.

Draisaitl’s scored a bit better without McDavid than RNH. RNH has marginally better shot and goal numbers. The Oilers aren’t good enough and need to supply either player with more help on line two.

Neither Draisaitl or RNH can do it by themselves when asked to form a line without McDavid. The Oilers have consistently been outshot and outscored with either player running their own line.

What about a second line featuring both Draisaitl and RNH? This would require McDavid to drag along two lesser players, although that’s something @Sidney Crosby is familiar with in Pittsburgh. It’s more difficult to structure in Edmonton now without a Caggiula, let alone an Eberle, to play the Bryan Rust role with McDavid. It’s still surprising a line featuring Draisaitl and RNH away from McDavid hasn’t been explored more in four seasons.

Draisaitl and RNH haven’t played much together during their time in Edmonton, but there is some history. Draisaitl appeared at right wing alongside RNH and Hall early in the 2015-16 season, then shifted to centre when McDavid broke his collar bone.

The 2015-16 results are heavily influenced by Hall’s presence, but Draisaitl and RNH showed decent results in 2016-17 and 2017-18 as well. Their numbers cratered in 2018-19, but even McDavid’s numbers were off without Draisaitl or RNH. The depth at forward has been significantly stripped away by Peter Chiarelli.

Playing Draisaitl and RNH on a second line gives the Oilers a second threat beyond McDavid they’ve sorely lacked. Running those two on a secondary line would be much easier if the Oilers acquired another winger this summer, but maybe James Neal will suffice. A complimentary player like Brett Connolly or Joonas Donskoi acquired through free agency or a player like Andre Burakovsky through trade would help allow the Oilers to run two lines without sacrificing too much offence from the McDavid line.

Holland chose to re-sign @Alex Chiasson and bring @Markus Granlund, @Tomas Jurco, and @Josh Archibald via free agency. Neal for Lucic gives Tippett another chance at a potential scoring option, while Joakim Nygard is a speedy wildcard from Europe that could produce. Asking McDavid to drag along two lesser players is a tall task, although the Oilers haven’t shied away from putting an extraordinary amount of hope on McDavid alone. McDavid is McDavid, but I don’t know if even he could play against the toughest competition with, say, Nygard and @Zack Kassian flanking him and come out on top. Although, Granlund did score 19 goals a few years ago and Nygard was tied for the league lead in even-strength goals in the Swedish Hockey League last season.

McDavid’s succeeded with lesser players in the past, save for 2018-19. It’s a lot to ask, but the Oilers need scoring beyond McDavid and Draisaitl and the current formula hasn’t worked the last two seasons. RNH only has two more years on his contract. Time’s ticking.

The Oilers will likely start the season with Draisaitl playing beside McDavid, and Kassian as the third option. Edmonton lacks the veteran winger to compliment McDavid without Draisaitl or RNH. McDavid and Draisaitl are too attractive of a duo for head coaches to pass up, even if it means leaving RNH with minimal help on the second line.

Will RNH and Draisaitl see time together on line two away from McDavid? That might be Tippett’s best option for an effective second line.