Will the Oilers keep this up?
4 years ago
Over a decade of failure has jaded Oilers fans. Understandably so. Even with a new regime in power and a great start to the season, there is still almost a sense of fear amongst some portions of the fan base.
No one is directly saying “they aren’t making the playoffs” but you get a sense that some still believe that this Oilers start might be a mirage. That it’s simply a matter of time until things fall apart. I don’t share that same view.
What are the reasons that the Oilers are winning? There are three that really stand out.
1 – Goaltending
2 – @Connor McDavid and @Leon Draisaitl
3 – Special teams
2 – @Connor McDavid and @Leon Draisaitl
3 – Special teams
That’s really been the recipe. That’s a pretty standard recipe as well. Most teams will win a lot of hockey games if their star players are rolling, their goaltending is strong, and both of their special teams’ units are in the top ten. Another big positive for the Oilers is that their one glaring weakness, depth scoring, looks to be improving.
Today, I want to focus on the areas that are working well for the Oilers.
First, I want to look at their goaltending. Both Smith and Koskinen were inconsistent in 2018/19 but are both off to incredible starts through the first month and a half of the 2019/20 season. Among goaltenders who have appeared in at least half of their team’s games, Koskinen is 7th in SV% (0.928) and 4th in GAA (2.16) while Smith is 9th in SV% (0.926) and 6th in GAA (2.22). They’ve been getting some of the best goaltending in the NHL.
It’s surprising but those of these guys had extended streaks last year where they were this good. @Mike Smith was the Flames best player during their playoff run and was excellent down the stretch with a 0.914 SV% and a 1.91 GAA.
@Mikko Koskinen had his hot streak at the beginning of the season. Through his first nine starts last season, he had a 0.923 SV% and a 2.29 GAA. Then down the stretch, he was overworked and his numbers reflected that.
This year, the Oilers need to do their best to keep both guys rolling and I really like the way Dave Tippett has handled things. I don’t believe that these two will both finish top ten in both major goaltending categories, there will be some regression, but the fact that Tippett is so committed to keeping both guys rested, there is reason to believe that the regression won’t be too bad.
Another thing that leads me to believe they’ll be better next year is the fact that they aren’t surrendering nearly as many chances as they were last season. In 2018/19, they were in the bottom-third in the league when it came to 5v5 shots againt/60 and scoring chances against/60.
So far this season, they have allowed the 8th fewest SA/60, the 17th fewest SCA, and are 15th in high-danger Corsi chances against/60. They still aren’t perfect but they’ve really improved in all three of those areas, even though they’ve been missing Adam Larsson for essentially the entire season. They finally don’t bleed chances against and that’s really helping out their two goalies.
At the end of the day, I still believe the goaltending will dip a little but I don’t think it will suddenly become the reason they are losing hockey games.
Both special teams units have been very good this season and after years of seeing how an inconsistent powerplay unit and awful penalty kill can sink a team, it’s great to see how positively it can also impact a team.
The penalty kill is in the top ten and while they do give up a lot of shots while shorthanded, they’re 21st in the NHL when it comes to SA/60, they are better when it comes to not giving up actual scoring chances. They rank 11th in SCA/60.
I give credit to both Tippett and Holland when it comes to this. The Head Coach clearly has a good system in place and the GM brought in a handful of players who are very good on the PK.
Their goaltending has really helped in that regard as well. Both Smith and Koskinen have top-15 save percentages on the PK and Smith also has a 0.950 high-danger save percentage, which is 6th in the league. Koskinen is 25th with a 0.778 HDSV%.
The penalty kill has been good as keeping chances to the outside and the fact that their goaltenders have been steady when needed is a massive benefit as well.
As for the powerplay, they’re second in the NHL right now and I just have zero reason to believe that they can’t continue to sit in the top five all season. They generate the most scoring chances of any team and the 8th most shots. On top of that, just look at them on paper. They do have the highest shooting percentage in the league but I think that’s just a product of having so many elite offensive producers on the ice at once. When they get chances, they don’t miss them very often.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are also producing at an insane clip right now at even-strength. It’s not nearly as surprising as the goaltending or special teams, but it’s without a doubt been just as big of a reason for their success. Without 97 and 29, the Oilers wouldn’t have a pulse in the offensive zone.
Draisaitl is first in points and McDavid is second. Is it sustainable? You better believe it.
Last year we saw Draisaitl score 50 goals with a shooting percentage of 21.6% and a lot of people thought he was going to see his goal scoring dip this year simply because a shooting percentage above 20% is viewed as unsustainable. He’s proving last year was completely sustainable and you could argue that he’s been more dominant and well-rounded than he was last season.
As for McDavid, you don’t need me to explain why his current play is sustainable. He’s Connor freakin’ McDavid.
Am I being too optimistic? Possibly. But I really don’t think that this hot start for the Oilers is a fluke. Their special teams is legit. As long as 29 and 97 are in the lineup, they’ll continue to produce offence. The goaltending will cool down at some point, but if the depth scoring can step up, that might negate any small step back from either Smith or Koskinen.
That’s my optimistic take on things, but give me your thoughts! Can the goaltending keep it up? Will McDavid and Draisaitl stay in the top five? Can the penalty kill keep this up all year?
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