Will the Oilers Trade Up or Trade Down?

5 years ago

The Oilers have the 10th pick in Friday’s draft. We know GM Peter Chiarelli is open to trading the pick to acquire a right-shot, puck-moving defender, but what about moving up a few spots, or possibly moving down to acquire more draft picks?

What would it cost?

There hasn’t been a lot of trades involving teams moving up in the top-ten recently, but since 2007 here are the deals that have unfolded on the draft floor.

2007: San Jose moved up four spots to #9 and took Logan Couture. They gave St. Louis the 13th, 44th and 87th picks.

2008: Toronto moved up two spots from seventh to fifth and took Luke Schenn. They gave the Islander the seventh and 68th picks in 2008 and the 37th pick in 2009.

Nashville then traded up two spots to get the #7 and gave the Islanders the ninth and 40th picks.

The Leafs ended up with Schenn, the Predators drafted Colin Wilson and the Islanders got Josh Bailey and the 37th, 40th and 68th picks. Pretty good haul for the Islanders, and they still ended up with the best player of the three, as well as three other picks.

We haven’t seen a team moving into the top-ten in a decade. We have seen teams trade NHL players to acquire a top-ten pick, but since 2008 no team has moved into the top-ten by just swapping draft picks.

What about trading down?

Again, we haven’t seen many teams trade down from a spot similar to the Oilers. In fact, no one in the 10th slot has, but a few between #11-#14 have moved down.

In 2008 the Buffalo Sabres moved back one spot from #12 to #13. They gave the Kings the 74th pick to move up one spot. It was a great move by the Sabres as they drafted Tyler Myers. The Kings took Colten Teubert at #13.

In 2009 Minnesota moved down from #12 to #16. They got the 77th and 209th picks from NYI to drop four spots.

In 2012 Calgary moved down from #14 to #21 and also received the 42nd pick from Buffalo.

In 2016 New Jersey moved down one spot from #11 to #12 and Ottawa gave them the 80th pick to do so.

In 2017 Winnipeg traded down from #13 to #21. Vegas got the 13th pick, and a 3rd rounder in 2019 and guaranteed they’d pick Chris Thorburn in the expansion draft.

Trading down from the tenth pick doesn’t happen very often, and if the Oilers want to get a second round pick along with the first pick they move down to, they likely have to move back at least five spots.

It is possible a team will be willing to move up to #10 and give the Oilers an extra draft pick, but if the Oilers really like a player at #10 is it worth it to pass on him, just to get a third round pick, or maybe a second if the Oilers drop back six or seven spots? I don’t think so.

If the Oilers do trade the pick, and I don’t believe they will, then I believe it is much more likely to be for an NHL player than trading up or down.

NHL AWARDS…

The NHL awards were handed out last night in a very emotional evening with some of the survivors of the Humboldt Broncos in attendance, as well as a focus on the horrible shootings in Vegas and Parkland.

Congrats to all the nominees. Getting nominated is a great honour and not everyone can win. It leads to great debates.

The Professional Hockey Writers Association votes on five individual awards as well as the All-Star teams.

Here is how I voted. The winner is in bold. It is important to remember at some point you have to list them in order. The gap for many slots was incredibly small. In some cases, the gap between one and five was very small for me, but at some point, you have to rank them. Feel free to disagree with me about my choices.

HART TROPHY: To the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team (five selections).

Taylor Hall
Nathan MacKinnon
Claude Giroux
Anze Kopitar
Connor McDavid

NORRIS TROPHY: To the defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position (five selections).

Drew Doughty
Victor Hedman
John Carlson
Seth Jones
PK Subban

CALDER TROPHY: To the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition (five selections).

(Note: An eligible player cannot have played more than 25 NHL games in any single preceding season nor in six or more games in each of any two preceding seasons. A player must not have attained his 26th birthday by Sept. 15 of the season in which he is eligible.)

Mathew Barzal
Kyle Connor
Brock Boeser
Yanni Gourde
Alex Debrincat

LADY BYNG TROPHY: To the player adjudged to have exhibited the best type of sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct combined with a high standard of playing ability (five selections).

William Karlsson
Alex Barkov
Morgan Reilly
Zack Werenski
Anze Kopitar

SELKE TROPHY: To the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game (five selections).

William Karlsson
Radek Faksa
Anze Kopitar
Sean Couturier
Patrice Bergeron

NHL All-Star Team

CENTER: (pick three)

Connor McDavid (Named to first team)
Nathan MacKinnon (named to second team)
Evgeni Malkin

**If you’re wondering why McDavid is higher here, but MacKinnon was higher in Hart, it is based on wording of the Hart. If the wording was most outstanding player (which is what the Ted Lindsay award is) then I would have voted for McDavid. He is the best player in the NHL.**

RIGHT WING: (pick three)

Nikita Kucherov (named to first team)
Blake Wheeler (named to second team)
Phil Kessel

LEFT WING: (pick three)

Taylor Hall (named to first team)
Claude Giroux (named to second team)
Alex Ovechkin

DEFENSE: (pick six)

Drew Doughty (named to first team)
Victor Hedman (named to first team)
John Carlson
Seth Jones (named to second team)
PK Subban (named to second team)
Roman Josi

GOALTENDER: (pick three)

Pekka Rinne (named to first team)
Connor Hellebuyck (named to second team)
Marc-Andre Fleury

NHL All-Rookie Team

FORWARD: (Pick three)

Mathew Barzal
Kyle Connor
Brock Boeser

DEFENSE (pick two)

Charlie McAvoy
Will Butcher

GOAL (pick one)

Juuse Saros

**All six of these rookies were named to the All-rookie team***

PARTING SHOTS…

1. Connor McDavid won his second consecutive Ted Lindsay trophy. He is the first player to win back-to-back since Sidney Crosby won in 2013 and 2014. Alex Ovechkin is the last player to win three in a row when he won between 2008-2010.

The other players to win back-to-back include Jaromir Jagr (1999-2000), Dominik Hasek (1997-1998) and Marcel Dionne (1979-1980). Guy Lafleur won three in a row (1976-1978) and Wayne Gretzky won four in row (1982-1985).

2. Only three years in his career McDavid has two Ted Lindsay awards. Only Gretzky (5), Mario Lemieux (4) and Lafleur, Jagr, Ovechkin and Crosby (3) have more.

3. I understand some Oilers fans are upset McDavid didn’t win the Hart. He is the heart of the Oilers, your favourite team, so I get it, but I’d also hope if you are one of the ones upset, you’d recognize you might have a slight bias. Nothing wrong with that, I’d expect every fan base to have some towards their team. It is part of being a fan.

The PHWA voted differently than many Oilers fans wanted, but so too did 1,500 fans in a survey you can see here.

There will never be a perfect system. Voters won’t all agree, nor will fans, and it makes for great debates.

I also read many saying the players know best and the Ted Lindsay is what truly matters. I get that sentiment, but I’ll leave you with this.

In 1986 Wayne Gretzky set the NHL record with 215 points in a season. He won the Hart Trophy that season, but NHL players didn’t vote him as the most outstanding player in the NHL. They voted Mario Lemieux, who had 141 points in 79 games. Gretzky had 215 in 80 games, a whopping 74 more points, but the players voted Lemieux.

Maybe they were tired of Gretzky winning —he’d won the previous four — or maybe they were tired of him dominating them. Either way, it illustrates there won’t always be complete agreement on players, regardless of who is voting.

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