Will the Edmonton Oilers Make It Five?

Tonight’s a magical, potentially wonderful night in the NHL.

The Alexis Lafreniere lottery is set for 4 p.m. MST and one team, potentially probably likely the Oilers, is going to get a chance to draft him first overall. If you remember, the league did a two-phase draft lottery this year. During the first phase, a team still in the play-in round drew the chance to select first overall.

Eight teams — the Edmonton Oilers, Flordia Panthers, Minnesota Wild, Nashville Predators, New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins, Toronto Maple Leafs and Winnipeg Jets — will all have an equal 12.5% chance of winning the lottery. If the Oilers win the lottery, chaos will ensue and that’s where the Oilers will draft.

If any team but the Penguins win the lottery, they will draft 15th and if Pittsburgh does win, Edmonton will be bumped up to 14th. So best-case scenario, the Oilers win the lottery. Second best is Pittsburgh wins giving Edmonton an ever-so-slightly better draft spot, and worst case would be the Oilers lose out and have to select 15th.

The truth of the matter is that Lafreniere is the true winner of this years draft no matter what happens. He has a 37.5% chance of lining up alongside Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby or Auston Matthews next season.

And that’s not accounting for other stars on the above team like Alexsander Barkov, Artemi Panarin, Patrik Laine and Mark Scheifele, or to a lesser extent guys like Filip Forsberg and Kevin Fiala.

Unlike 1st overall selections in the years past, Lafreniere is going to be going to a much more established team than a first overall pick would’ve in the past. There were some surprise play-in exits, Edmonton included, that impacted this.

With the lottery set for 4 p.m. this afternoon, and Lafreniere (who scored 112 points in 52 QMJHL games last year) is going to see his future unfold before his eyes.

Surely, if the Oilers win and get the chance to draft Lafreniere everything chances. Edmonton would have the chance to draft an incredible talent, but they may also be wise to explore trade options for the first overall selection. The Ottawa Senators may be a team willing to do something so drastic.

The Oilers have a chance to Make It Five tonight in securing their 5th ever first overall selection.

Nonetheless, buckle up as it’s going to be a fun night.

On Twitter: @zjlaing