There are certain playoff moments that live on through history, and certain individual performances are remembered and discussed forever.
Don Larsen’s perfect game in the 1956 World Series. He mowed down all 27 L.A. Dodgers and led the Yankees to a 2-0 victory in Game 5. They won the series in seven, but Game 5 is the one people still talk about.
Wayne Gretzky’s hat trick in Game 7 of the 1993 Campbell Conference Final. It was his only playoff hat trick with L.A., but it came in Toronto. He scored shorthanded to open the scoring, assisted on the second goal, then scored the go-ahead goal to make it 3-2 and in the third period scored the game winner. L.A. won 5-4 and he had four points. His father, Walter, had suffered a stroke earlier that season, and he was in the crowd to watch his son’s performance.
Rookie Earvin “Magic” Johnson had to play centre in Game 6 of the 1980 NBA Final because Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was out with an ankle injury. The rookie point guard dominated at centre and finished with 42 points, 15 rebounds and seven assists to lead the Lakers to victory and clinch the Championship. Many still consider it the greatest NBA Finals performance.
Mark Messier’s infamous “guarantee game.” We can debate if his comment, “We’re going to go in and win Game 6,” was a guarantee or just a statement, but you can’t debate how he stepped up in that must-win game in the Eastern Conference Final. The Devils jumped out to a 2-0 lead on home ice and led until Alex Kovalev made it 2-1 with 1:41 remaining in the second period. Messier assisted on the goal, and then he scored a hat trick in the third period as the Rangers won 4-2. The Rangers won Game 7 at home and then defeated Vancouver in seven games in the Stanley Cup Final. Messier’s performance against an arch-rival for a team that hadn’t won the Cup in 54 years was unforgettable.
Connor McDavid has had many incredible individual performances thus far in his career. He was the fourth-fastest player to 1,000 regular season points. In Game 5 vs. Florida, he picked up his 150th playoff point in only 95 games. Only Wayne Gretzky (68GP) and Mario Lemieux (86GP) did it quicker.
Last year in the Cup Final, in a must-win Game 5, McDavid scored two goals and added two assists. It was a virtuoso performance punctuated by this amazing effort to set up Corey Perry.
The Oilers had scored one goal in their first two games in Florida, and they needed a win. This year it is Game 6, and the Oilers are once again facing elimination in Florida. They had their miracle comeback victory in Game 4, becoming the only road team in NHL history (between two official NHL teams, Montreal won in Seattle in 1919, but Seattle wasn’t an official NHL team then) to overcome a three-goal deficit and win a game in the Stanley Cup Final.
McDavid had one assist in Game 4 and didn’t factor in on any of the four 5×5 goals. No team can expect their best player to dominate every game but tonight is a game they need McDavid to lead them. He hasn’t had a truly dominant performance since Game 1 vs. L.A., when he produced four points to bring the Oilers back from a 4-0 deficit to tie the game at five. They lost 6-5.
He’s had some unreal moments including walking around Jack Eichel to set up Leon Draisaitl for the overtime winner in Game 2.
Or this stellar play dancing around Aleksander Barkov and Aaron Ekblad to set up Leon Draisaitl.
But he’s yet to have a truly dominant performance in a victory. He had multiple huge games last year picking up four points in Game 2 over Vancouver, three points in Game 6 vs. the Canucks, three points in Game 4 over Dallas and four point games in Game 4 and 5 vs. Florida. There are very few players on the planet who will dominate a game, and it won’t surprise you.
McDavid is one and the Oilers need him to lead them tonight.
It is time.

SNAPSHOTS…

— The Oilers need more traffic in front of Sergei Bobrovsky. I’ve felt it has been an issue most of the series. Often, they will have someone standing beside him looking for a tip, instead of getting in front of him and impeding his vision. I asked Kevin Woodley to dig up some numbers on screen shots. I asked him about the play in the second period where Connor McDavid walked down the left side and shot high blocker. Corey Perry was in front of Bobrovsky, but then he moved to his blocker side and the shot him.
“It was you that brought this up earlier in the series, and I hadn’t really looked at it, but since then I have. Man, would I like to see a more engaged and purposeful taking away of Sergei Bobrovsky’s eyes. You’re right about that play where there was a screen where Perry cuts through, and that’s where a shot glove side is better or he should stay in front of Bobrovsky. When you think of the Perry goal later in the game, it’s interesting that Perry is the one who scores from the blueline.
“Because if I’m being honest, he’s been one of the guilty culprits in the game when he goes to the front of the net he then moves out of the lane to try and tip a puck. Whereas if you stay in his (Bobrovsky) eyes, you have a better chance to score rather than sliding off to the side as the puck’s released, trying to tip it end up letting Bob see the release.
“The Oilers have 20 screenshots in five games. It isn’t terrible, but eight of those are defensive screens where they’re just shooting pucks and the Panthers are in the lane. And usually, they’re in the right lane because they have a pretty good system and they stick to it. It is really 12 offensive screens in terms of actively taking away Bob’s eyes, and that’s not good enough against a goalie like Bob. I understand the tendency to think when playing an elite goaltender, you think you have to beat him by creating dynamic offensive east-west plays.
“The Oilers are so good and so dynamic offensively and have the ability to create high danger chances, but you have to score other ways at times. Evan Bouchard hammers the puck, obviously, but Bob hasn’t had a problem with it when he can see it.  I’d like to see a little more traffic in his eyes. They’re getting into good shooting areas, but if you let Bob see it, he has a good chance to stop it. I think it was Game 3 where he makes this incredible save off a shot that is deflected off a kneecap right in front of him. But if you really break down the play, because there was nobody in his eyes off the release, he’s shifting his whole body into that space. He’s not a goaltender that drops to his knees and then reaches. He moves his body into space, and you’re giving him the chance to do that by allowing him to have a look at the release. They need to be more purposeful when going to the net.
“At least if they’re standing in one of the lanes it will force Bob to make a decision which lane he wants to see around. And again, it’s not like it’s been nonexistent, but too many times, there’s a body there, and he’s not actually screening the goaltender. Or he’s rolling off before the release, which from a timing perspective, if you roll off before then his eyes are still on the release. Timing is key and being in his eyes at the time of release is very important.”
— In the McDavid/Draisaitl era the Oilers are 4-1 in Game 6 when trailing 3-2 in a series. They beat Anaheim in 2017, LA in 2022, lost to Vegas in 2023 and beat Vancouver and Florida in 2024.
— As great as the Panthers have been the past two playoffs, they have had some hiccups when they have a chance to clinch on home ice. They lost to Toronto 2-0 this year in Game 6, lost to Boston (2-1) and Edmonton (5-3) last year. They did beat Edmonton in Game 7 and defeated Tampa Bay and the Rangers at home in 2024. They went 2-2 on the road in clinching games. Being 5-5 in a clinching game isn’t terrible, especially because they’ve eventually won, but in that same time Edmonton is 6-1 when they have a chance to clinch the series. Florida has shown an ability to give their opponent a second chance. Edmonton defeated them three times last year in that scenario.
— I really believe Edmonton needs the first goal. They haven’t forced Florida to play from behind very often. The Panthers have only trailed for 33 minutes of the 358 played thus far.
— This is only the second time in Oilers history they have played a game on June 17th. The first game was also Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final and Edmonton defeated Carolina 4-0 in Edmonton.
— Connor McDavid has the highest points-per-game average (1.64) in NHL history (minimum five games) when facing elimination. Leon Draisaitl is tied for seventh at 1.36. They will need both to produce tonight.
— Brad Marchand and Sam Bennett have crushed the Oilers through five games. Marchand has six goals while Bennett has five and one assist. They are the first set of teammates to have five+ goals in the Stanley Cup Final since Yvan Cournoyer (6) and Frank Mahovolich (5) did it with Montreal in 1973.
— Marchand is the first player in history to score 5+ goals with two different teams in the Cup Final. The previous six players to do it twice all did it on the same team. Mario Lemieux (1991, 1992 with PIT), Jean Believeau (1956 and 1965 w/ MTL), Bernie “Boom Boom” Geoffrion (1955 and 1958 w/ MTL), Maurice “The Rocket” Richard (1944 and 1951 w/ MTL), Jack Darragh (1920 and 1921 w/OTT) and Frank Foyston (1919 and 1920 w/ SMT).

LINEUPS…

Oilers

RNH – McDavid – Perry
Kane – Draisaitl – Kapanen
J. Skinner – Henrique – Frederic
Podkolzin – Janmark – Brown
Ekholm– Bouchard
Nurse – Kulak
Walman – Klingberg
Skinner
Kasperi Kapanen and John Klingberg draw back in for Viktor Arvidsson and Troy Stecher. I don’t fret too much about lines or D pairings. If the Oilers aren’t ready to play in the first period, it won’t matter who is dressed. They need to be ready. They’ve been brutal the past three games in the first period getting outscored 7-0 and outshot 37-20. I also think we will see different D pairings throughout the game than listed above. Tonight is a night I’d play McDavid and Draisaitl 25+ minutes, but I’d like to see them play on their own lines more often at 5×5.
Stuart Skinner is back between the pipes, and I thought he was their best player in the first period in Game 4, even though they trailed 3-0. He will need to make a few big saves, but the skaters need to do a much better job not getting outplayed in front of him. Skinner hasn’t allowed a bad goal or even a goal on mid-tier scoring chance. The Oilers have to find the game they played against Vegas and Dallas, and much of it was predicated on a good start and playing with the lead.

Panthers

Rodrigues – Barkov – Reinhart
Verhaeghe – Bennett– Tkachuk
Luostarinen – Lundell – Marchand
Greer – Nosek – Gadjovich
Forsling – Ekblad
Mikkola – Jones
Schmidt – Kulikov
Bobrovsky
No lineup changes for the Panthers. Florida capitalized on the Oilers’ mistakes in Game 5. Brad Marchand got the jump on Vasily Podkolzin at the centre ice faceoff and then split the Oilers’ defence. On the second goal, Ekholm skated to centre and simply flubbed his dump-in attempt. The Panthers knocked it down, went back in the zone and Sam Bennett scored after Matthew Tkachuk’s initial shot was blocked. Their third goal was another bad blunder by Edmonton. Draisaitl won the offensive zone faceoff, but Marchand poked the puck back to Jake Walman. Walman fanned on his cross-ice pass to Evan Bouchard and the Panthers tipped it out to centre as Marchand grabbed it. He then beat Walman one-on-one and scored five-hole on Pickard.
Credit the Panthers: They made their goals happen, off of mental and physical lapses by the Oilers. Edmonton’s attention to detail has to be higher tonight.

TONIGHT…

Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk
GAME DAY PREDICTION: Numerology suggests the Oilers win. Tonight is McDavid’s 96th playoff game. Game 7 would be his 97th with a chance to win the Cup. Oilers find a way to bring it back to ‘Berta.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid makes an impact with two points.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers score first and at one point have their first two-goal lead of the series.

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