Oilersnation will have no shortage of topics to discuss over the next five days.
There will be a trade (or two), qualifying offers, re-signings, and a few unrestricted free agent additions. And that’s not even mentioning the new Collective Bargaining Agreement and 224 players experiencing the joy of being selected in the NHL Draft.
Here are my thoughts on what to expect.
— Let’s begin with the easy one. Viktor Arvidsson will be traded. It might occur today, but I won’t be surprised to see him moved on day two of the NHL draft. The Oilers might get a late-round pick for him. They’d prefer not to have to retain any salary. There were other teams interested in acquiring Evander Kane, but a few wanted salary retention, while others were less assertive than Vancouver, which is why Stan Bowman made the trade as quickly as possible. The Oilers want to shed Arvidsson’s salary, and Arvidsson wants to go elsewhere. The deal will happen. It’s just a matter of when.
— Trent Frederic will be signed to an extension before July 1st. Expect it to carry a $3.8 million annual cap hit. It will be a longer-term deal. I can’t get a great read on Connor Brown’s situation, but I could see him going to free agency. The Oilers would like to retain him, but I’m not sure they will go higher than $2.2m AAV. Brown could get quite a bit more on the market. He settled for $1m this past season, but I don’t think he will take a discount again, which is totally understandable. The Oilers got incredible value on Corey Perry’s $1.4m cap hit ($250K which is a bonus overage for this season) last year. It would be foolish to expect a repeat of 19 regular-season goals and 10 in the playoffs. I can see retaining him for $1 million, but I’d try to avoid any potential bonus overages for next season when Connor McDavid’s new contract kicks in. Yes, I expect him to sign an extension later this summer. I’ll be floored if he doesn’t.
— The NHL will announce a new CBA this morning at 11 a.m. MT press conference in LA. Frank Seravalli broke this story and outlined all the details at DailyFaceoff. The highlights of the new deal include:
  • An 84-game regular season beginning in 2026-27, which includes a maximum of four preseason games with veterans of 100+ games playing up to two games.
  • Player contracts will have a maximum term of seven years for players re-signing with their current club, and six years when signing with a new team. Shorter-term contracts are better for all parties.
  • A playoff salary cap mechanism. It will essentially close the door on padding payroll in the playoffs due to LTIR. However, the formula to calculate this will be intricate.
  • Signing bonuses will be capped at 60%. If you have a $10 million AAV, the most you can get as a signing bonus will be $6 million.
  • Teams will have their own full-time Ebug (emergency goalie). They will travel with the team. Don’t expect this to be a young prospect, as they won’t play any games, but rather a former minor pro or college/junior goalie. It would be wise to allow them to practice with the team as often as possible. It will reduce the shots starting goalies take in practice.
  • Draft picks’ rights will be retained for a maximum of four years. If drafted at 18, you have four years to sign them. If drafted at 19, three years, and drafted at 20 gives you two years. This was brought in due to the new NCAA rule allowing CHL players to play NCAA. I expect this to be implemented right away, which is why they are having the announcement before today’s draft. I wonder if we will see the playoff salary cap implemented this year as well?
— The Oilers don’t have a first or second-round pick. Don’t expect the Oilers to trade into the first round like they did last year. While the Oilers don’t have a pick tonight, there is still a lot to watch for. The draft is always interesting, but too often it comes with lofty and often unfair and unrealistic player comparisons. I thought it was ridiculous when some tried comparing Connor Bedard to Connor McDavid. It was unfair to Bedard, as two years later, some people deem him to have underachieved because he isn’t lighting up the NHL like McDavid did. He was never going to be McDavid. Those who made the asinine comparisons should be the ones taking the heat, not Bedard.
Here’s a quick reminder of how hard it is to produce big numbers in the NHL.
In the last decade (2016-2025), the NHL has had 23 players score 100 points. Nine of them did it multiple times, and only McDavid (8x), Leon Draisaitl (6x), Nikita Kucherov (5x) and Nathan MacKinnon (3x) did it three times or more. It is damn hard to be an elite scorer. It is even more difficult to do it early in your career. The most recent draft class to produce a 100-point player was the 2017 class with Jason Robertson (109 points in 2023) and Elias Pettersson (102 points in 2023). Petterson has scored more than 68 points one other time in his seven seasons, while Robertson has produced 80, 80, 79 as his next best.
The 2018 class has seen three players surpass 80 points. Quinn Hughes had 92 in 2024, Brady Tkachuk had 83 in 2023, and Evan Bouchard had 82 in 2024.
The 2019 class has had three players surpass 70 points. Jack Hughes had 99 in 2023 and 74 and 70 the past two seasons, while Matt Boldy (75) and Cole Caufield (70) did it in 2025.
The 2020 class has two players over 70+ points. Tim Stützle scored 90 in 2023, 70 in 2024 and 79 in 2025, while Lucas Raymond scored 80 this past season and 72 in 2024.
Wyatt Johnston (71 in 2025) is the only player from the 2021 class to surpass 70 points thus far.
No one from the 2022, 2023 and 2024 classes have reached 70 points yet. Bedard could this year in his third NHL season.
There is a very good chance no player from tonight’s first-round draft class will play more than nine games in the NHL this season. That is totally fine, and while you watch the draft, it is best to have realistic expectations of players and try to avoid comparing them to Hall of Fame players or elite players in today’s game.
Jun 15, 2024; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard (2) skates with the puck against the Florida Panthers during the third period in game four of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
— The Oilers have five players who need a qualifying offer by Sunday evening to retain their rights. Evan Bouchard and Noah Philp will be qualified for sure. Olivier Rodrigue could be qualified, but the Oilers already have Connor Ungar (23), Nathaniel Day (20) and Samuel Jonsson (21) signed for next season. Rodrigue has had good, but not great, numbers in the AHL the past four seasons. I wonder if the Oilers opt to go in a different direction. Cameron Wright and Jacob Perreault will not be qualified.
— Arvidsson is one trade I expect to occur. There has been plenty of online chatter about trading for a goalie. It sounds like the Canucks are getting close to signing Thatcher Demko to an extension. I never felt he’d be a realistic trade option for the Oilers, but with a looming extension, he for sure isn’t. John Gibson’s name has been out there for months. I wouldn’t trade him for Stuart Skinner. I could see those who would want to have him share the crease with Skinner, but even at 50% retained, he’d be a $3.2 million cap hit. I’m leery of his health.
Could he get traded to Columbus for Elvis Merzlikins? Both guys need a change of scenery. Columbus already traded one goalie, Daniil Tarasov, to Florida (for a fifth rounder), and Merzlikins could benefit with a fresh start. Merzlikins hasn’t been the same since his good friend, and former Blue Jackets goalie, Matiss Kivlenieks died in a freak fireworks accident on July 4th, 2021. Merzlinkins has two years and a $5.4 million AAV remaining on his deal, while Gibson has two years at $6.4 million. It isn’t ideal for Anaheim to have a $5.4 million backup, never mind a $6.4 million one in Gibson, but it’s an option. The Blue Jackets want to change their goaltending.
— GM Stan Bowman outlined he will look at a change in goal. I’ve written many times why I wouldn’t give up on Stuart Skinner. He’s only 26, and he’s been to two Stanley Cup Finals. Historically, goalies find their grooves in their late 20s. There is always a chance that Bowman makes a significant goalie trade, but I think it would be very difficult. Ilya Sorokin, Jusse Saros, and Ukko-Pekka Luukonen are names that get tossed around, but how interested are the Islanders, Predators and Sabres in moving those guys? I think it is more likely the Oilers sign an unrestricted free agent goalie like Alex Lyon or Anton Forsberg.
— Evan Bouchard at four years with a $9.8 million AAV? I could see it. I think we will see more high-end players opting for shorter-term deals as the salary cap rises significantly.
— My pick for a contract that will not age well is Vladislav Gavrikov. He’s a solid defender, but seven or eight years (if he stays in LA) at $7.5 million to $8 million will not age well. He turns 30 in November. The final few years of that deal could get ugly. It reminds me of Marc-Edourd Vlasic’s deal with San Jose. He signed the extension when he was 30, but it didn’t start until he was 31. The Sharks just bought out the final year of his deal, but the past four years, he’s really struggled. He didn’t just hit the wall; he slammed into it.
Gavrikov is a defensive defenceman who is starting to slow down. His top skating speed at NHL edge in 2022 was 23.03 with 91 bursts of 20+mph. This past season, his top speed was 21.9 mph with 30 bursts of 20+mph. When a defensive defender starts to slow down, he gets exposed more. The first few years of his deal will be okay, but don’t be surprised to see him take a similar path as Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who was recently bought out by the San Jose Sharks.

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