2024 has certainly been an eventful calendar year for the Edmonton Oilers.
The highlight of this year for Edmonton was their playoff run this past season, when the Oilers became just the third team in NHL history to rally back from a 3-0 series deficit to force a Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Finals. Unfortunately, although Connor McDavid won the Conn Smythe, the Oilers lost the seventh game to the Florida Panthers, coming just one game shy of winning it all.
The team also had one of its busier off-seasons in recent history, with Ken Holland stepping down as Oilers general manager, the St. Louis Blues signing Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg to offer sheets, Leon Draisaitl signing to an eight-year extension, and much more.
Thus far in the 2024-25 season, the Oilers hold a 21-11-2 record, sixth in the NHL and second in their division. After an underwhelming start to the season, the Oilers are heating up once again, with an 8-1-1 record in their past 10 games.
As the new year approaches, here are five key questions for the Oilers that must be answered in 2025.
*All stats via Natural Stat Trick and EvolvingHockey unless stated otherwise
Could the Oilers win the Pacific Division?
The Oilers have ranked second in their division in each of the past five seasons. Interestingly, four different teams have ranked ahead of them – Vegas in 2019-20, Toronto in 2020-21 (in the Canadian division), Calgary in 2021-22, Vegas again in 2022-23, and Vancouver in 2024-25.
The Oilers have won the Smythe Division six times throughout franchise history, but they have yet to rank atop the Pacific Division. Will that change this season?
Here is a comparison of Edmonton’s record at the end of December this season to prior seasons:
*2020-21 is omitted as the season took place from January 13 to May 15
The Oilers are a team notorious for having early-season slumps.
In 2019-20 and 2020-21, the Oilers performed well in October and November but collapsed in December. In 2022-23, the Oilers were fairly mediocre all-around for the first three months before becoming the second-best team in the league for the second half. 2023-24 is infamous for Edmonton’s worst start in franchise history, as they began the season with a 2-9-1 record, ultimately leading to Jay Woodcroft’s dismissal as head coach and the hiring of Kris Knoblauch.
This season, the Oilers once again had some struggles at the very beginning of the year, losing the first three games and having some rough moments throughout late October and early November.
Still, this Oilers team currently has their best record at New Year’s Eve during the McDavid and Draisaitl era; it’s not a high bar, but considering the team’s consistently proven ability to heat up during the second half of the season, it’s an encouraging sign. They’re in a much better position to win the division than seasons prior.
Last season, the Oilers were fourth in the Pacific Division on December 31st, 12 points behind first place. They ended the season second in the division and 5 points behind first place.
This season, the Oilers are currently tied for second in their division at the end of December and 6 points behind first place. This team has a much stronger chance of ranking atop their division this season, especially if they can continue their recent play.
What happens with Jeff Skinner?
It’s safe to say that Kris Knoblauch is not the most avid fan of Jeff Skinner.
Skinner was signed on July 1st to a one-year contract at an AAV of $3M, hoping he could be an effective top-six scoring winger next to Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. But, the signing has yet to pan out for the team.
Skinner has spent the vast majority of his TOI in the bottom six. On the season, he ranks 8th among the team’s forwards in TOI per game, and 11th in the month of December. He is expected to be a healthy scratch in today’s game against the Anaheim Ducks.
In fairness, it is difficult to argue that Skinner has played well. No Oilers forward has been on ice for more goals and scoring chances against at 5-on-5 than Skinner, and he possesses the worst goal differential on the team. His production hasn’t been nearly enough to make up for it.
But at the same time, can we really be surprised by his play, considering his deployment? Historically speaking, Skinner has always performed best as a scoring winger next to skilled centers. He has never been a bottom-six grinder.
It must be noted that Skinner has a no-move-clause clause in his contract. We’ll see if Kris Knoblauch eventually decides to give him an extended look in the top-six to see if can provide some value, or if both sides decide to mutually move on at the trade deadline (given a team is willing to take him).
Are Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard consistent enough to be a tandem for a cup contender?
Oct 9, 2024; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers goaltender Calvin Pickard (30) replaces goaltender Stuart Skinner (74) after he gave up five goals on 13 shots against the Winnipeg Jets at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images
Back in November, Pierre Lebrun reported that pursuing a goaltending upgrade is not a priority for Edmonton and that they will “sink or swim” with Stuart Skinner.
To put it lightly, Skinner has been a quite inconsistent and streaky goalie for the Oilers over the past three seasons.
Skinner became a full-time NHL goalie for the Oilers in 2022-23. Jack Campbell was the projected starting goalie, but after his struggles, Skinner won the starter role. That season, Skinner saved 18 goals more than expected, ranking 11th in the league in GSAx. Unfortunately, he struggled in the playoffs against the LA Kings and Vegas Golden Knights, producing a 0.880 SV% and allowing seven goals more than expected in 12 games as the Oilers were eliminated by Vegas in Round 2.
In 2023-24, Skinner was atrocious to begin the season and was a big part of why they had their worst start in franchise history. Up until mid-November, he ranked last in the league in GSAx, alongside a 0.868 SV%. However, he bounced back in a huge way, posting a 0.915 SV% ever since November 24, 2023, and ranking 3rd in the league in GSAx, saving 21 goals more than expected.
In the 2024 playoffs, he was a roller-coaster. Skinner was subpar in the first round against LA, awful against Vancouver in the second round, excellent against Dallas in the conference finals, and then roughly net average against Florida in the cup finals.
Once again, this season, Skinner has struggled with consistency. Up until November 16, Skinner ranked third last among all goalies in GSAx, with a 0.876 SV%. Ever since, Skinner has generally played fine, with a 0.911 SV% and a +4 GSAx.
As for Calvin Pickard, he has been slightly below-average overall on the season (-2.4 GSAx), but like Skinner, Pickard has played well as of recently. However, the main doubt with Pickard is that he (arguably) remains unproven; Pickard has a negative GSAx against playoff teams in the past two seasons and was initially signed as a third-string goalie.
If/when Skinner struggles, can Pickard reliably step up?
Of course, the Oilers can still win with their goaltending tandem; after all, they were just a single game away from the cup with the Skinner/Pickard duo just a few months ago.
However, betting on this tandem still carries significant risks. Only time will tell if it pans out.
Will Darnell Nurse sustain his current level of play?
Perhaps the biggest development of the 2024-25 season has been the play of Darnell Nurse.
Those who have followed my articles know that I have often been quite harsh on Nurse throughout the past two seasons, primarily because of his struggles throughout the playoffs. But, I will always give credit when it’s due, and Nurse has been fantastic as of late.
Since the beginning of November, Nurse leads the team in 5-on-5 goal differential, alongside an excellent 54% expected goal share.
Kris Knoblauch and Paul Coffey deserve a lot of credit here for their unique deployment of the defensive pairs. Brett Kulak and Troy Stecher have rotated as Nurse’s partners depending on the situation, which has worked tremendously well. In fact, the Nurse-Kulak pair holds a 65% expected goal differential, fifth among all defensive pairs with a minimum of 150 TOI at 5v5.
Considering his contract, Nurse’s play in the 2024 playoffs was arguably one of the greatest reasons why they ultimately failed to go all the way, as the Oilers were out-scored 14 to 25 with Nurse on ice.
But if Nurse’s current play can sustain for the 2025 playoffs? It’s a game-changer.
What type of player will the Oilers pursue at the trade deadline?
There is an argument that the Oilers could use help at essentially every position. Edmonton could use another middle-six forward, a defenceman to round out their defensive core, and a more reliable backup option than Pickard.
However, with limited cap space and limited assets, it’s likely they’ll only end up addressing one of those areas.
Heading into the season, it was obvious that acquiring a top-four right-defenceman was at the top of Edmonton’s to-do-list. But, Nurse’s strong play and the emergence of the Nurse – Kulak pair significantly changes things.
Lebrun’s reports and the weak goaltending market likely mean that a goaltending upgrade is unlikely. With Jeff Skinner’s underwhelming season thus far, it is possible that the Oilers acquire a top-nine winger. They may also consider acquiring a defensive partner for Ty Emberson on the third-pairing, allowing Nurse and Kulak to be a full-time pair.
Let’s wait and see what Edmonton’s management ultimately decides to do.
Find me on Twitter (@NHL_Sid)
Nation Gear Boxing Day Sale
From December 26th to 29th, we’re dropping our biggest sale of the year—and trust us, you don’t want to miss it. Here’s the lineup: 20% off all gear—yes, all gear. Hoodies, tees, hats—whatever you need to rep your team in style. Plus, free shipping on orders over $200, so you’re saving on both gear and delivery. This is your chance to stock up and save big while looking sharp in the best gear out there. But don’t wait—when this sale ends, it’s game over. Head over to nationgear.ca right now to take advantage of these deals. Gear up. Save big.
