There is no need for mass panic. The Edmonton Oilers are 5-2-1 in their last eight games. They are in a playoff spot after another slow start to the season. Things could be worse, but they also could be better. Mass panic is unnecessary, but there are multiple areas of their game that need to improve from a team standpoint and individually.

The good news is they play one of the NHL’s worst defensive teams tonight in Montreal.

The Canadiens rank 31st in goals against at 3.89 per game. They’ve allowed three or more goals in 14 of their 18 games. They are 2-10-2 in those games, while they are 4-0 in the four games they allowed two goals or fewer. All four of those games came on home ice, so the Oilers can’t just lace up their skates and expect to win, but the Canadiens are a weak defensive team, and the Oilers should create lots of offensive chances tonight. They will need to bury them and then avoid blowing another third-period lead.

Edmonton is 3-0-1 in its last four games, but has blown third period leads in the past three games and was forced to play overtime. The Oilers defeated the Islanders and Predators in OT, while losing to the Maple Leafs on Saturday. Additionally, they blew a lead against Vegas on November 6th which means in four of their last five games, they’ve blown a third period lead. It is a trend they need to stop immediately.

The Oilers were 29-3-1 when leading after 40 minutes last season. They are 6-1-2 so far this season. They lost a total of four games last year when leading after 40 minutes and have already dropped three games in their first 18 games. It is an issue they need to rectify. Quickly.

They aren’t getting outworked or dominated for long stretches in the final frames — it has been the major gaffes that have cost them.

Against the Islanders, they couldn’t get the puck out, then Jeff Skinner and Corey Perry made a weak defensive play that led to Anders Lee scoring. The tying goal was actually a very nice play off a face off win, with three quick passes and Lee ripped home his second goal in 4.5 minutes to tie the game.

Against Nashville, the Oilers gave the Predators’ fourth line a breakaway.

And against Toronto, Evan Bouchard had complete control of the puck just to the right of his goal and tried a cross-ice pass that hit Connor McDavid and went right to Matthew Knies in the slot.

The trend is more attention to detail rather than lack of effort. It is up to the players to be more focused as a group.

— Viktor Arvidsson will miss his third-consecutive game. Clearly his injury is more severe than the team initially suggested. Darnell Nurse is out tonight and tomorrow, and likely a week after Ryan Reaves’ shoulder smashed into Nurse’s head and left him bloody. Kris Knoblauch said he’d be out 5-10 days, which means he likely will miss two games for sure and up to four or five. Josh Brown has been recalled, and the Oilers will dress 11 forwards and seven D-men again. Brett Kulak and Ty Emberson will be the second pair, while Troy Stecher, Travis Dermott and Brown will rotate in the third pair.

— Terrible timing for Nurse. He had played very well the past month. The Oilers play tonight, tomorrow, Thursday and Saturday, but then they have five days off. It would seem Nurse will miss at most four games, based on Knoblauch’s 5-10 day range.

— The Oilers need more 5×5 goals from their top-six wingers. They need more assists as well. Zach Hyman has two. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has one. Vasily Podkolzin has zero. Jeff Skinner has three, but he’s played the fewest minutes with either McDavid or Leon Draisaitl.

— Here’s a look at the five wingers who have played the most in the top six.

Nugent-Hopkins has one 5×5 point in his last 10 games. They need much more from him. Hyman has produced four points in his last eight games, but that is still well below his 5×5 production the last two seasons when he produced 48 and 52 points. He has five through 18 games. Skinner has played the least minutes in the top-six but has produced the most points. His turnovers are why he was demoted, not his production, but Kris Knoblauch might have to consider giving him another look, because the top-six winger production has not been remotely good enough through 18 games.

— One guy who is producing is Mattias Janmark. He is third among Oilers forwards with seven points 5×5. All of them have been assists, and five have been primary assists. He’s giving the Oilers excellent production in the bottom six.

— Evan Bouchard had two ugly consecutive shifts in Toronto that resulted in two goals against. It wasn’t good, but it doesn’t mean he’s awful overall. The stunning part was his errant pass on the first goal against. Passing is his best asset, so to see him make that play without being pressured makes the play stand out even more. I get it. It is frustrating to watch, and his past five games haven’t been as good as his first 13. That is fair, but I’d cautious those who want to bury him. He’s still a very important player on the team. It might sound odd, but Bouchard not having a dominant season will help the Oilers on his next contract negotiation. It is why I said there was no rush to sign him after he has a career year. The odds of him matching 82 points were low, not to mention his 31 playoff points, so why not wait? If he repeated it, he’d still command $10m. But if he doesn’t, then there is a chance his AAV comes in lower, and right now that could happen. Regardless of his contract status, Bouchard can’t have more 59 second stretches like we saw in Toronto if he hopes to command a $10m AAV.

— Since October 18th, Stuart Skinner has allowed 18 goals 5×5 and has an expected GA of 18 and he has a 2.35 GAA and .908Sv% at 5×5. His numbers aren’t as awful as some suggest, over the past month, but it is also fair to say you’d like a few more stops. Skinner’s game, while not where he wants it to be, has improved over the past month, more than the 5×5 scoring from the top-six wingers have, but he can still get better. In the same span, Calvin Pickard has allowed six goals 5×5 and has an xGA of 7.21. Pickard will get the start tonight against Montreal.

RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Perry
Janmark – Henrique – Brown
J.Skinner – Ryan

Ekholm – Bouchard
Kulak – Emberson
Dermott – Stecher
Brown

Pickard

As outlined above, at some point Knoblauch needs to give Jeff Skinner another opportunity on either of the top two lines. You can’t have your two left wingers in the top six scoring one goal in 10 games and thinking it is acceptable. It isn’t. Either RNH or Podkolzin start producing 5×5 or Skinner has to get a look. He’s never been a great defensive player, and yes, he had a few too many giveaways when playing with McDavid, but at some point, production has to be part of the equation, doesn’t it?

The Oilers are 8-3-2 in the McDavid/Draisaitl era in Montreal, but they’ve only outscored them 38-35. Edmonton won 2-1 last season but got crushed 6-2 in 2023 after beating the Habs 7-2 in 2022. Odd stat of the day: McDavid is -9 in his last seven games in Montreal. He was even in his first six trips to Montreal.

Slafkovsky – Suzuki – Dach
Newhook – Evans – Caufield
Anderson – Dvorak – Gallagher
Heineman – Condotta – Armia

Guhle – Matheson
Hutson – Savard
Xhekaj – Struble

Montembeault

The Canadiens’ offence has some weapons. Cole Caufield has 12 goals while Nick Suzuki has 18 points in 18 games. The Habs have struggled against Western Conference teams going 1-3-1. They defeated St. Louis 5-2, but lost 8-2 to Seattle, 4-1 to LA, 3-0 to Minnesota and lost 3-2 in OT to Calgary. The Oilers are 4-2-2 v. the East.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers extend their point streak to five games with a 6-3 victory.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid and Draisaitl continue to roll as they combine for five points.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Janmark picks up his first career assist v. Montreal in his 15th game played against them.

Thank you to everyone who came to the 6th annual Pizza Pigout. It was our first year at the Icehouse and it was awesome. As always, the pizza was amazing, and there was a great mix of returning pizzerias and new ones. We raised over $25,000 for KidSport. Thank you so much.

Here are the winners. Please support them when you order your next pizza. You won’t be disappointed.

Hope to see you next year for the 7th annual.