After a comeback win in OT against the San Jose Sharks Saturday afternoon, the Edmonton Oilers are getting right back to work with a Sunday Funday matchup against the red-hot Ottawa Senators.
The Senators are such a weird team to me. Despite having plenty of solid players, they never seem to get any better. Every year, there’s hope, and every year, the Senators let their fans down in spectacular fashion, and it’s a tradition you can set your watch to. I would call them the Canadian Buffalo Sabres if it weren’t so mean. But I’ve evolved and matured as I’ve gotten older, and I would never suggest such hurtful things, no matter how much fun it is.
Sure, you could argue that missing the playoffs since 2018 is a very Sabres-like thing to do, but this year’s team in Ottawa looks different. Unlike the Sens of old, the 2024-25 version is heading into the new year in a playoff spot. I know it’s only the second wildcard spot, but they’ve thrown down a hell of a run just to get it. The Senators come into tonight’s matchup with an 8-1-1 record over their last 10 games, including six straight wins, and they’ve faced some steep competition along the way.
If the Oilers are going to extend their win streak to three games, they need to be way more ready to go than they were yesterday. There were moments early in the game against the Sharks that were a total yard sale, and I’d be wary of trying to get away with those kinds of blunders against a Senators team that is filling the net almost at will right now. As much it’s fun to make fun of Ottawa’s Infinibuild — it feels oddly familiar to me, tbh — they’re starting to come out of it right now, and no one in an Oilers uniform should be taking them lightly.
I know you’ll likely read at some point today that Edmonton has won 13 of its last 16 games against the Senators, including the 5-2 finish back on November 19th, but I’m expecting more fight out of Ottawa this time around. They’ve been gelling the last few weeks, and with the Christmas break coming up for both sides after this one is over, I could see the visitors wanting to keep their magical run alive and get off the road in style.
Of course, the great equalizer in this situation is that both teams played yesterday. The good news for the Oilers is that they didn’t have to go anywhere, while the Senators had to fly in from Vancouver after being in the late slot on Hockey Night in Canada. They might be a tired group, which makes the need for a quick start all the more critical for Edmonton. The boys would do themselves a world of good if they could get some jump early and maybe even a quick one to grab the lead.
Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

OILERS
SENATORS
RECORD
20-11-2
18-13-2
WIN/LOSS STREAK
W2
W6
LAST 10 GAMES
8-2-0
8-1-1
GOALS FOR
108
104
GOALS AGAINST
94
95
POWER PLAY%
21.7
23.9
PENALTY KILL%
74.4
77.2
AVG. SHOTS/FOR
32.5
30.3
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST
26.3
27.7
TEAM SAVE%
.912
.910
CORSI FOR%
54.07
51.16
PDO
0.993
0.991
TEAM SHOOTING%
8.02
8.07
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%
53.64
51.15
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)
  • Linus Ullmark will be getting the start for Ottawa and is on a personal five-game winning streak, complete with a 0.99 GAA, a .966 save percentage and one shutout over that span. The former Bruin has a career record of 3-3-1 against the Oilers and will go up against Stuart Skinner, who has won four of his five career starts against the Sens. If the Oilers are going to win today’s game, they have to make life miserable for Ullmark.
  • Should we do an updated Baggedmilk Heater Watch? No problem. With the three assists he picked up on Saturday, Connor McDavid has 17 points (3G, 14A) in his last eight games. Leon Draisaitl picked up the game-winner against the Sharks, extending his point streak to eight games with a mind-boggling 19 points (7G, 12A) over that span. Since being left off the Canadian roster for the 4 Nations tournament in February, Zach Hyman has nine goals and 10 points in his last eight games.
  • The Oilers have won 10 of their last 12 games, and currently sit one point behind the L.A. Kings and five points behind the Vegas Golden Knights for the Pacific Division lead.

LINE COMBINATIONS

Oilers ***UPDATED***

Arvidsson – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Kapanen
Janmark – Henrique – Brown
J. Skinner – Ryan – Perry
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Skinner
The Oilers didn’t skate this morning with the back-t0-back weekend, so we’ll have to wait and see what changes — if any — are made to the lineup outside of Stuart Skinner getting the start. I could see Derek Ryan getting back in somewhere for some fresh legs, but outside of that, your guess is as good as mine.
No Ryan Nugent-Hopkins tonight, which bumps Viktor Arvidsson up to the first line and draws Derek Ryan back into the mix. It also looks like Knoblauch is going back to his traditional defensive pairings after switching things up Saturday’s game against the Sharks.

Senators

Tkachuk – Stutzle – Giroux
Greig – Norris – Batherson
Cousins – Pinto – Amadio
Gregor – Ostapchuk – Gaudette
Chabot – Jensen
Sanderson – Hamonic
Kleven – Bernard-Docker
Ullmark
The Ottawa Senators are buzzing right now, and last night’s 5-4 overtime win over the Canucks makes it six straight wins for the . Jake Sanderson put up three points, including the OT winner that sealed the deal. Not to be outdone, Shane Pinto also racked up three points of his own, with a pair of goals and a helper. Claude Giroux and Josh Norris chipped in with goals, rounding out a solid night for the Sens’ offence. The point I’m getting at is that the Oilers need to be on top of the details with their puck management because the Sens are hot right now and they’ll burn you for any mistakes.

TONIGHT…

Tim Stutzle Ottawa Senators Photoshop
Photoshop: Tom Kostiuk from Handmade by Tom
Game Day Prediction: The Oilers get a quick start, two early goals, and cruise to a 7-2 victory heading into the break.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid both extend their point streaks.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Connor Brown picks up two revenge goals against his former club.

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