The Edmonton Oilers are back at Rogers Place on Sunday night for Game 68 against the Nashville Predators, and if the last week taught us anything, it’s that this team still simply cannot make things easy on itself. The road trip ended at 2-1-1, which is perfectly respectable if you’re only looking at the standings, but the way it wrapped up left a sour taste. Losing the way they did in Dallas was frustrating enough, but coughing up a two-goal lead late in St. Louis felt like a massive missed opportunity for the extra point. With the schedule winding down and the Pacific Division still tighter than anyone would like, the Oilers are wasting a lot of time learning the same lessons.

Nashville rolls into town sitting at 29-27-9 and very much in the middle of their own fight for a playoff spot. They’re not lighting the world on fire offensively, putting up 2.98 goals per game, but they’re skilled enough that mistakes can still easily wind up in the back of the net. Diving into the spreadsheets, Nashville controls over 51 percent of the shot share and expected goals at five-on-five, which means they’re not some pushover at 5v5 despite the leaky goals against. Their penalty kill is running at 80.7 percent as well, so even with Edmonton’s 32.1 percent power play being ever dangerous, this isn’t necessarily a matchup where whistles automatically swing things in the Oilers’ favour.

What makes this game interesting is how similar the two teams look in a few key areas, and I’m not sure I mean that as a compliment. Both clubs sit just over 51 percent in expected goals at five-on-five and generate close to the same number of shots on goal, which tells me that tonight’s game is likely to come down to execution. I know I’m repeating myself a little bit here, but it bears repeating that this is a winnable game, provided that Edmonton can lock down its details. Nashville isn’t going to overwhelm anyone with offence, but they’re more than capable of burning you for mistakes. And if there’s one thing the Oilers have had a masterclass in so far this season, it’s ghastly mistakes in their own end.

The black cloud, of course, is that as much as the Oilers’ offence continues to deliver, the defensive side of their game still feels like it’s stuck in the pre-season. Edmonton has already scored 235 goals and is pumping in 3.51 per game, which should be more than enough to win most nights. The problem is that they’re also allowing 3.45 goals per game while carrying a team save percentage of .886 at even strength. When the goaltending rollercoaster keeps flying up and down, the only real way to stabilize the problem is by tightening up defensively in front of them. Cleaner breakouts. Better puck management. Less chaos in the defensive zone. It really is that simple, isn’t it?

The Oilers are still in a playoff spot, but the Pacific Division is too tight to keep leaving points on the table in games like this. Nashville sits below Edmonton in the standings, and with every game getting more important by the day, these are the exact nights where the boys need to show they can still take care of business. The offence will get its chances. It always does. The real question is whether the Oilers can lock things down in their own end before the runway disappears completely. There’s still time to get this train back on the rails, but it sure would be nice if the turnaround wasn’t left right down to the wire.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

Savoie – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Kapanen
Samanski – Dickinson – Roslovic
Jones – Henrique – Frederic

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Murphy
Walman – Stastney

Ingram

Above are the line combos that Tony Brar tweeted after the morning skate. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins remains a notable absence from the group, as word came down that his wife was having their second child over the weekend. According to Kris Knoblauch, Nuge will be a game-time decision. The larger point, of course, is that the group that is playing needs to find a way to pick up two points today.

Forsberg – O’Reilly – Marchessault
Stamkos – Haula – Evangelista
Schaefer – Wood – L’Heureux
Jost – Svechkov – Wiesblatt

Skjei – Josi
Hague – Barron
Perbix – Ufko

Saros

Even though the Oilers have scored 41 more goals than the Predators have this season, let’s not forget that they have plenty of players who can fill the next if our side stays sloppy with the puck. As much as I want to call a lopsided beatdown because of Edmonton’s historical results against Nashville, the reality is that the Oilers are so inconsistent these days that there are no sure things this season. All I know for sure is that the Predators are a beatable team for sure, but that the Oilers will need to bring their best for as close to 60 minutes as possible if they plan to collect the two points.

Game Day Prediction: The Oilers needed to rebound after that dreadful collapse in St. Louis, and a visit from the Predators was precisely what the doctor ordered. Final score: 5-2 Oilers.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: Leon Draisaitl multi-point game? Yes. Indeed.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: He hasn’t been a Predator for quite a while now, but Mattias Ekholm still picks up a revenge goal anyway.