The Edmonton Oilers haven’t won a game in Columbus in almost five years. Their last victory came on October 30th, 2019, when Mike Smith stopped 23 of 24 shots, and James Neal, Jujhar Khaira and Leon Draisaitl (two) scored the goals in a 4-1 victory. Since then, the Oilers, despite being a much better team in the overall standings, haven’t won a game. While they can’t lose to teams like Pittsburgh and Nashville, the Blue Jackets are a team they struggle to beat, especially in Columbus.

In the past three seasons, the Oilers have lost 5-2, 6-5 and 4-2. It is odd because in the past three seasons, the Oilers had the eighth-best record in the NHL while Columbus had the 27th. The Oilers had the seventh-best road record and were second in GF/GP at 3.44. Meanwhile, in those three seasons, Columbus ranked 25th on home ice and was 30th at home in GA/GP at 3.53. The Blue Jackets struggled against most teams in the NHL on home ice — except Edmonton.

That is why tonight’s game is far from a guaranteed victory for the Oilers.

The Blue Jackets haven’t been the most skilled team for years, but they work hard. This year, under new head coach Dean Evason, they play a more aggressive style. The forecheck hard with two forwards, and they don’t retreat when they defend, unlike last season. Evason outlined his approach recently, asking “Who wants to sit back and defend? It’s an easy sell to the players. We’ll correct stuff, but it’s a lot easier to pull back the reins than to have to push them forward.”

The Blue Jackets look quicker than previous seasons, and much of that is due to Evason’s aggressive approach. The benefit for the Oilers is it can lead to the Blue Jackets giving up odd-man rushes. The Oilers haven’t capitalized much on odd man rushes, after it being a major strength of their game last year. But we can say that about virtually every aspect of their offensive game: It lacks finish.

They could catch a break tonight as they face Elvis Merzlikins. Daniil Tarasov has started the past four games for the Blue Jackets, because Merzlikins struggled in his first two starts allowing seven goals on 48 shots (.854Sv%). Merzlikins has struggled the past few seasons. In his first three seasons (2020-2022) he’s played 120 games and posted a .913Sv% and 2.88 GAA. Many felt he was tracking to be a very solid starter, but in his 73 games since the start of the 2022-23 season he has an ugly .888sv% and 3.77 GAA. His struggles, albeit only two games, have continued early on this season.

The Oilers’ offence has struggled this season as much as Merzlikins has the past two years. Will one of them have a breakout performance tonight?

— The Blue Jackets are 3-3-1. They are currently on a L-W-L-W-L-W-OTL rotation. They’ve scored six goals in each of their three victories and have scored nine combined goals in their four losses. They enter tonight’s game fifth in the NHL in GF/GP at 3.86. The Oilers need to respect the Blue Jackets’ offence, mainly due to them having a lot of players feeling good offensively as they have the second highest 5×5 SH% at 14.47,

— Five Blue Jackets are averaging 1.00 point/game or higher. Kirill Marchenko (1.29), Kent Johnson (1.25, but now out with a shoulder injury), Sean Monahan, Yegor Chinakov and Zack Werenksi (1.00). They’ve had 12 different goal scorers through their first seven games. Edmonton has 10 players with one goal, but they’ve played nine games. The Oilers’ inability to finish continues.

— The Oilers rank 30th in GF/GP at 2.33. It isn’t from a lack of opportunities. The Oilers have the second-most shots on goal at 5×5 with 266. They rank first in SF/60, but they are 31st in shooting percentage at 5.26. The Oilers have 14 goals on 266 shots, while Columbus has 22 goals on 152 shots.

— The main reason the Oilers are 4-4-1 is because they aren’t giving up many goals. They are eighth in GA/60 at 5×5 at 2.13. In their last eight games they are fifth at 1.86.

— Stuart Skinner has been solid in his last five starts. The entire team stunk on opening night v. Winnipeg, and those 30 minutes really skew Skinner’s numbers. In his last five starts he has a .915Sv% and 2.38 GAA. On the season he sits at .890Sv% and 3.06. His last five starts have been impressive, yet some act as though the Matt Duchene goal means he isn’t consistent. I don’t see how one shot out of 141 carries that much weight, but it does for some, and it illustrates the power of negative memory. They will remember that goal more than his great save on Evgeni Malkin after Leon Draisaitl put it right on Malkin’s tape in the slot. For me, in his past five games Skinner has been very consistent.

— Despite creating a lot of shots, the Oilers haven’t been able to generate many power plays. They are 30th in PP opportunities/game at 2.56. They aren’t taking many penalties either, sitting 10th best at 2.78/game. So far this season the Oilers sit sixth in fewest total power plays (both teams) per game at 5.34. Edmonton isn’t an overly physical team, or a cheap team, and most of their games have played out that way. They don’t draw a lot of penalties, and when the PP doesn’t get many opportunities and is struggling like it is, it’s challenging to get in a rhythm.

RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl– Arvidsson
J. Skinner – Henrique – Brown
Janmark – Ryan – Perry

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson/Dermott

Skinner

Kris Knoblauch loaded up his top line in the third period and it worked as the Oilers scored the tying goal, and then won it playing 4×4 in OT. Columbus doesn’t have a dominant second line, and he might start them together tonight. He could also just keep the aforementioned lines together, as the Oilers did control the second period, but once again struggled to score. At this point, if he has to load up his two superstars to find some offense, it makes sense. Eventually this team should start scoring more. They have too much skill not to, but it is rather surprising it has stretched into nine games.

We could see Travis Dermott in the lineup, as Knoblauch often doesn’t like players sitting out both games in back-to-back situations.

Sillinger – Monahan – Marchenko
Chinakov – Fantilli – Pyyhtia
Van Riemsdyk – Kuraly – Labanc
Aston-Reese – Danforth – Olivier

Werenski – Provorov
Christiansen – Severson
Johnson – Harris

Merzlikins

After their morning skate, Evason said they have a few players dealing with illness and they will be game-time decisions. Depending on who it is, that could have a big impact on the outcome of the game.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers improve to 5-4-1 (which is what the previous 10 Stanley Cup losing teams averaged in their first 10 games) with a 4-2 victory.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Draisaitl extends his goal streak to three games.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Zach Hyman picks up his first career assist v. Columbus. He has 197 career assists, but Columbus is the only team he’s never had one against. Until tonight.