Does anyone else have a feeling that tonight’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and St. Louis Blues will be a spicy one? I do. I mean, at least for the crowd anyway. Let’s get into it.
Who would have guessed that the Oilers and Blues would develop a budding rivalry despite having no real history against each other in recent memory? That all changed when Doug Armstrong submitted offer sheets to both Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg, forcing Stan Bowman and the Oilers to make a decision that was not in their plans for the summer. As a result, many of us have had this game circled on our calendars, and I cannot wait to see what the vibe is like at Rogers Place.
As much as I understand why Broberg and Holloway signed their new deals — they would never get that kind of money from Edmonton at this stage — that doesn’t mean we don’t also have the right to feel slighted. Both players played key roles in getting the Oilers to the Stanley Cup Final, and the expectation was that they would do it again in the spring. In the weeks leading up to the drama, most of us had Broberg pencilled in as a top-four option, and Holloway potentially slotted beside Leon Draisaitl in the top six. The story wrote itself.
That plan changed when the Oilers walked away from the offer sheets, accepting mediocre draft picks as compensation instead of having two cost-controlled, homegrown prospects contributing in key positions. What we’ll never know is how close the Oilers came to matching. To clear the space, they would have needed to move a significant roster player, and it would be fascinating to know how strongly they considered that. Would it have happened if Evander Kane wasn’t as hurt as he was? What if they had passed on the Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner experiments? Those are the questions I’ve been asking myself lately.
None of that matters when it comes to this first of three meetings between the Oilers and Blues, though. All that counts is who gets two points when the buzzer sounds, and you’d have to think there are a bunch of players in orange and blue gunning for that result against the Blues. Of course, they want to win and need the points, but I’d also bet there’s a little bit of a “screw you, man” element at play here as well.
Sure, the NHL is a business and players need to do what’s best for them, but the Oilers had something special building, and you’d think there’s some annoyance that those two didn’t want to be a part of it. Then again, maybe I’m the petty one here, and no one actually cares. Either way, I can promise you the fanbase hasn’t forgotten, and I’m legitimately intrigued by how spicy the building will be for their arrival. Do they get booed for a night, and that’s all? Or will this feud go on for the next decade?
What I know for sure is that there’s more drama leading up to a matchup between the 14-10-1 Oilers and the 13-12-2 Blues than I ever would have expected. Even though both squads are clearly in the mix for playoff spots, the last thing I saw coming was a night the fanbase — and social media — would be buzzing about this much. Toss in the Jim Montgomery storyline after he was let go in Boston, and you’ve got the makings of a fun little Saturday night.
Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

OILERS
BLUES
RECORD
14-10-2
13-12-2
WIN/LOSS STREAK
W1
W2
LAST 10 GAMES
6-3-1
6-3-1
GOALS FOR
78
71
GOALS AGAINST
77
83
POWER PLAY%
19.4
15.9
PENALTY KILL%
73.0
79.2
AVG. SHOTS/FOR
33.1
26.8
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST
25.7
29.5
TEAM SAVE%
.905
.910
CORSI FOR%
55.13
47.39
PDO
0.977
0.991
TEAM SHOOTING%
7.20
8.11
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%
54.12
46.33
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)
  • Tonight’s matchup marks the first of three meetings between the Oilers and Blues. These teams will next square off on February 4th in St. Louis before wrapping up the season series back here in Edmonton on April 9th. The Oilers went 1-1-1 against the Blues last season, winning their lone game at home in OT and dropping the two road visits.
  • Corey Perry leads all active Oilers in career games played against the Blues (53) while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins leads all active Oilers in career points (27).
  • Connor McDavid has recorded at least one point in his last five matchups against the Blues (2G, 7A) and has registered a point in eight of his last nine games (5G, 9A). Looking at the other side of the Dynamic Duo, Leon Draisaitl has 15 points (6G, 9A) in his last 12 games against St. Louis. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who leads all active Oilers in points vs. the Blues, has five points (2G, 3A) in his last five games against them.
  • The Oilers’ penalty kill has gone 23/24 in the last 11 games, and it really is remarkable to see how much it’s changed since being basically a coin flip early in the year.

LINE COMBINATIONS

Oilers

Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl– Kapanen
J. Skinner – Henrique – Janmark
Brown – Ryan – Perry
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Skinner
Kasperi Kapanen is taking on his former team for the first time since being claimed off waivers by the Oilers back on November 19th. Kapanen scored his second career hat trick versus the Blues on December 22nd, 2022, while he was a member of the Pittsburgh Penguins, and I would love nothing more than a little revenge game magic. The only change I could find for the Oilers’ lineup at the time of posting was that Stuart Skinner will be getting the start after having the night off against the Blue Jackets.

Blues ***UPDATED***

Saad – Thomas – Neighbours
Holloway – Schenn – Kyrou
Bolduc – Sundqvist – Bolduc
Toropchenko – Faksa – Walker
Broberg – Parayko
Suter – Kessel
Joseph – Perunovich
Binnington
I cannot wait to hear what the barn sounds like when Holloway and Broberg touch the puck tonight. Whether or not the players care is almost irrelevant because this market does not forget the feeling of betrayal that comes with something like signing an offer sheet. Props to them for securing the bag — I’ll never begrudge players for getting their money — but I am certainly excited to hear the frosty (???) welcome they’re sure to receive.

TONIGHT…

Edmonton Oilers Zach Hyman photoshop
Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk from Handmade by Tom
Game Day Prediction: The Oilers build upon Thursday’s win over Columbus with a second straight 6-3 victory.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg each get a point in their first revenge game back to Edmonton.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Derek Ryan picks up his first goal of the season, giving the Oilers a lead they would not give up.

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