Edmonton hasn’t won a game in Minnesota in 70 months. Their last win was in February, 2019. Tonight might be their best hope of winning as they skate into Minnesota playing their best hockey of the season. The Oilers and Wild met three weeks ago in Edmonton when Minnesota won 5-3, but since then the Oilers are 6-1 and have outscored teams 26-13. Minnesota is 6-2-1 since that game and has won close games, outscoring teams 26-24. The Wild have been good all season and have the most points through 28 games in franchise history with 42. They are tied with Winnipeg for the most points in the NHL, but have the best P% as they’ve played two fewer games.

The Oilers play Minnesota, Vegas and Florida in their next three games, and those teams currently lead the Central, Pacific and Atlantic divisions, respectively. Leon Draisaitl is excited for the challenge. “We have some good teams coming up. Those games are fun,” said Draisaitl. “We want to be one of those teams, we are one of those teams and it should be a good week for us.”

The Oilers are indeed one of those teams. In their last 25 games they have the fourth-best record in the NHL at 16-7-2. Minnesota is the only Western Conference team better at 18-5-2. The Oilers’ slow start means it will take time for them to climb into the upper echelon of teams in the standings, but they are one of those teams. Here’s where the Oilers ranked after each five-game segment.

Game #5: 25th in NHL with .400P% and 2-3 record.
Game #10: 25th with .450P% and 4-5-1.
Game #15: T-15th with .500P% and 7-7-1.
Game #20: 15th with .550P% and 10-8-2.
Game #25: 15th with .560P% and 13-10-2.
Game #28: 12th with .607P% and 16-10-2.

As mentioned above, the Oilers are 6-1 since losing to the Wild and they’ve looked great in many of those games. They continue to be solid defensively, and they’ve reduced scoring chances off the rush. Their offence is more productive, and not surprisingly their power play has been great at 31.3% (5-of-16). The problem is they still don’t generate many power plays. They’ve only averaged 2.29 PP opportunities/game in that time which ranks 29th. Only Vegas (2.25), Minnesota (2.00) and LA (1.88) are lower. Not getting PP chances isn’t hurting these teams, as they sit among the top five in P% since November 22nd. The Kings are 7-1, Vegas is 6-1-1 and Minnesota is 6-2-1.

The Wild are winning lately due to their 5×5 defensive play. They’ve only allowed 10 goals at 5×5 in nine games. They’ve outscored teams 16-10 while Edmonton has outscored their opponents 17-11 at 5×5. The reason the Wild are squeaking out close wins lately, is because their special teams are suddenly brutal. Their PP is 16.7% over their last nine games and their PK is an ugly 60.9%.

They’ve allowed nine power play goals on their last 23 kills. Their saving grace is they don’t take many penalties. They’ve been shorthanded 2.56 times/game which is 9th best over that time. The Oilers rank fourth at 2.14 TS/GP. On the season the Wild and Oilers are tied for fourth fewest TS/GP at 2.39. Don’t expect many power plays tonight, but the Oilers could really benefit if they are able to draw three or more.

— Kirill Kaprizov is second in scoring with 43 points behind Nathan MacKinnon (46), and he’s also second in +/- at +21 and trails his teammate Jake Middleton (+22). When people say +/- doesn’t matter, and GF% is better, keep in mind that at EV Kaprizov has outscored teams 41-19 (+22) and Middleton is +21 (34-13). They are both +17 at 5×5. It takes a few seconds to look it up, but +/- can still give you a fairly accurate look at a player. Yes, there will be some that change due to empty net goals, but it doesn’t change as much, for most players, as some claim.

— Middleton’s rise to becoming one of the Wild’s top defenders is a great story. He was the last pick, 210th overall, in the 2014 NHL draft. He was born in Wainwright, Alberta, lived there until he was six or seven and moved on Ontario. His path to the NHL was far from smooth, but he’s become a huge asset for the Wild. GM Bill Guerin absolutely fleeced San Jose when he acquired Middleton for goalie Kaapo Kahkonen in November of 2021. Here is a great video on Middleton’s journey to the NHL.

— Leon Draisaitl leads the NHL with 20 goals. It is his ninth consecutive 20-goal season. Alex Ovechkin has 19 consecutive seasons with 20+ goals and needs five goals when he returns from injury to make it 20 seasons. Other active players with 10 consecutive seasons of 20+ goals include Patrick Kane (13), Brad Marchand and John Tavares (11). Alex Barkov and Mark Schiefele need 11 and four goals respectively to extend their streaks to 10 seasons.

The Oilers’ franchise record is 10 consecutive seasons held by Jari Kurri and Mark Messier. Draisaitl can tie them next season and so can can Connor McDavid, who needs six goals to tie Draisaitl this season with nine straight 20+ goal seasons.

— “You guys should talk about him more. He’s been really, really good, like high-end. He’s been amazing, maybe our best D for a while now. It is fun to see. He is such a horse. You can’t beat him on the rush, and when he is making plays like that (pass to spring Draisaitl for the breakaway that led to his goal, and reversing the puck that led to McDavid’s goal) and settles the puck down and makes strong plays, it is fun to watch,” said Leon Draisaitl about Darnell Nurse.

Nurse has been the Oilers’ best D-man since November 1st. He’s been one of the best defencemen in the entire NHL over that span.

Of the 181 D-men who have logged at least 170 minutes at 5×5, Nurse leads them with the lowest GA/60 at 0.45, he leads with an 80GF% (8-2) and he’s been on the ice for the fewest goals against. He’s been huge for the Oilers especially when the Ekholm/Bouchard pair has been on for 15 goals against together in that time.

— Connor McDavid is one assist shy of becoming the seventh player to have 200 assists on one teammate’s goals. He’s assisted on 199 of Leon Draisaitl’s 367 career goals thus far.

— Draisaitl and McDavid have been involved on 456 goals, where either one of them scored, the other assisted or both assisted on a teammate’s goal.

They will likely pass Rod Gilbert and Jean Ratelle and Marcel Dionne and Dave Taylor this year and move into 6th. I expect Connor McDavid to sign a contract extension with the Oilers in 2025, and that will give them a very good chance to catch Wayne Gretzky and Jari Kurri for first on this list.

— The Oilers claimed Alex Regula on waivers from Boston yesterday. Regula has many Oilers connections.

For one season in junior he played with Evan Bouchard in London. In fact they were D partners and Regula played the left side. When Stan Bowman was the GM in Chicago he acquired Regula from Detroit for Brendan Perlini. Perlini would later play for the Oilers. Bowman left Chicago and the next summer the Blackhawks dealt Regula to Boston as part of the Taylor Hall trade. And now Bowman claimed him off waivers from Boston.

I received this scouting report from an NHL manager.

“He’s very poised with the puck and he makes plays.  He’s big, obviously, but he’s not a bruiser.  He’s more of a skilled guy who has patience and can pass the puck.  He doesn’t just throw it away under pressure. If anything, he will sometimes hold it too much, always looking for the best play instead of just unloading it when under pressure. Having patience is a great quality to have. It’s not that common to find big right shot defender who has that willingness to find a better play and be patient with it and look for the best outlet play. Last season in AHL he was one of top +/- defense in the league and he emerged as a PK guy for Providence AHL.  I used to see him more as a PP guy, but he’s evolved and shown he can be on the PK. Obviously NHL is different than AHL but he’s definitely got upside.”

Regula turns 25 next August. He’s the same age as Ty Emberson and one year younger than Bouchard. Max Wanner is the only other defender in his early 20s playing pro in the Oilers organization, and Bowman has been a fan for a few years. He’s yet to play a game this season, due to injury, so they might want to really push him in practice a few days before putting him in the lineup. But the Oilers like him and will give him a chance.

RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl– Kapanen
J. Skinner – Henrique – Janmark
Brown – Ryan – Perry

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson

Pickard

The Oilers will be going with the same lineup tonight in Minnesota, with the the sole exception that Calvin Pickard will get the start.

Kaprizov – Rossi – Boldy
Foligno – Hartman – Johansson
Lauko – Gaudreau – Trenin
Shore – Khusnutdinov – Jones

Middleton – Faber
Chisholm – Spurgeon
Merrill – Bogosian

Gustavsson

The Wild are banged up with Joel Eriksson-Ek and Jonas Brodin joining Mats Zuccarello on the sidelines. Eriksson-Ek usually plays against McDavid, but now it will be either Marco Rossi or Ryan Hartman, who isn’t a natural centre. McDavid and Draisaitl should have a big advantage down the middle tonight.

The Wild play hard and fast, and the Oilers will need to be ready for an uptempo game, or they will get skated out of the rink. The Oilers are 3-8-1 in the McDavid/Draisaitl era in Minnesota. They haven’t won there since February 7th, 2019. They’ve lost their last six visits.

Thanks to Bob and Frank for their bids on our two packages yesterday.

DAY 8: 🎁 Package #1: Dinner for Six at Chop Steakhouse Ellerslie or Downtown

You and five of your guests will dine with Kevin Karius, Eddie Steele, Brandon Douglas and Ladislav Smid from the Sports 1440 Morning Show.

🎁 Package #2: Improve Your Golf Game with Fitted Golf.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers end their drought in Minnesota and skate away with a 4-2 win.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid, Draisaitl and Kaprizov all pick up points.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Adam Henrique plays his first game in Minnesota as a member of the Oilers. He extends his point streak in Minny to five games (six points in previous four games) and scores his third goal of the season.