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GDB 5.0: A real test
By Jason Gregor
Oct 20, 2016, 15:02 EDTUpdated:
The Flames, Sabres and Hurricanes were in the same non-playoff boat as the Oilers last year, and have been for the last five years. The Sabres, Hurricanes and Oilers haven’t made the playoffs in the past five years, while the Flames only have one playoff appearance.
The Oilers needed a good start against those teams and they did, going 3-1, but tonight they will have a much tougher test against the St.Louis Blues. The Blues made the playoffs each of the past five seasons and they have the most wins of any NHL team in that span, going 230-110-36.
The Blues have done a great job adapting to the changes in the league, and no one has been better than them in the regular season. Tonight should give us a look into how much the Oilers have improved, or how far they need to go to compete with playoff teams.
The Blues’ blueline is huge, and Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester, Colton Parayko and Joel Edmundson are also very mobile, which makes it even more difficult for forwards to penetrate the zone and create offence. They also have Kevin Shattenkirk, who is a great skater and extremely dangerous in the offensive zone.
The Oilers need to be strong on the puck, and they can’t afford to just throw the puck away in the offensize zone, because the Blues will kill them on transition.
Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny and Alex Steen have combined for seven goals and 17 points, while Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Jordan Eberle have produced eight goals and 17 points.
Through four games the Oilers’ depth has produced nine goals while the Blues have scored four. The Oilers’ offence has been good, but they’ve allowed 15 goals in four games while the Blues have only allowed eight.
The Oilers can’t beat the Blues in a defensive battle just yet, so they will need to play smart and fast and win a 4-3 or 5-4 game instead of 2-1. Of course the Oilers will need to improve their D zone play during the season, but I don’t expect them to magically be able to play a shut down game.
LINEUPS
Eric Gryba is in for Mark Fayne who is now on the IR. Ben Betker was recalled, but he’s not an option to play. I don’t see the Oilers making any changes in their top six unless an injury occurs. Betker was a healthy scratch in Bakersfield’s first game on Tuesday and he wasn’t going to play tonight either.
Betker wasn’t going to play tonight for Bakersfield, so it made sense to let Benning play again. He’s only played one AHL game in the past two weeks. He needs to play.
I could see the Oilers swapping Betker with Benning for this weekend. I could also make an argument for recalling Mark Fraser to have him as your #7, since his prime development days are over, and let Benning play big minutes in the AHL. But don’t expect Betker to be here much longer. He isn’t NHL-ready.
***Late addition*** The main reason for Betker recall is it puts the Oilers closer to the cap, and will allow them to maximize LTIR relief when they eventually move Ference from IR to the LTIR.
BLUES
Jaden Schwartz will play his first game of the season, and Nail Yakupov got promoted to the second line with Stastny and Fabbri.
QUICK HITS
- Last year the Oilers started the season 0-4 and were outscored 13-5. No player had more than one point through four games. This year the Oilers are 3-1 and have outscored the opposition 17-15. Nineteen players have registered one point and nine have two or more. Their entire team should have confidence in the offensive zone.
- Cam Talbot and his wife Kelly welcomed twins, Landon and Sloane, into the world yesterday. They were born at 8:17 and 8:20 a.m. Talbot spent all day with them, but he went home last night and said he had a great sleep. Fatigue will not be a factor for him tonight. He will stay at the hospital with his new family tonight, and like any new father he was beaming this morning.
- “I still think we have work to do as a team and I don’t think anyone is comfortable yet. We have some things we really need to work on. It keeps us on our edge, and maybe I’m being way too critical of our group, but I just think we have to improve in a number of areas,” said coach Todd McLellan.
I don’t think he’s being too critical at all. I think he’s being very judicious. The Oilers are winning, which is huge, but they’ve been very sloppy at times and keeping his group accountable is very much needed at this point.
- “We are playing fairly good as a team, it’s just the individual details and moments that have to get polished up. When you are a team you should be able to cover for each other, but sometimes you have to have faith that guy will get his job done at that moment and we’ve got to get better (at doing the job) there,” McLellan replied when I asked what small details need to be improved.
It was an interesting response, and he brought up the Jordan Staal chance on the first shift of the game on Tuesday. “It was a missed assignment, and when you are ten seconds into the game you need to be able to handle that situation.” Talbot made a huge save, and you wonder how much that save altered the course of the game. If Staal scores, many are wondering if Talbot is set for another off night, and the Oilers might be questioning themselves. He stones Staal and the team ends up having a 3-0 lead later in the game. That was a huge save for Talbot and the team, but McLellan is bang on — you can’t have a five-star mental mistake so early in a game.
- Parayko might have the hardest shot in the league. Watch how rarely a goalie handles it cleanly. They struggled controlling it due to the velocity and it creates havoc around the goal. The Blues are encouraging him to use it more often.
- If you have tickets to tonight’s game bring them down to the Pint Downtown, park your car for free, and enter your name into the free draw to ride to and from the rink in the Nation Limo!
- We are having another hockey draft for Sunday’s gamess. It is free to enter and you win cash if your team has the most points. It is exclusive for Gregor Show listeners and Oilersnation readers. You can enter to play at draftkings.com/gregor1260. You can reserve a team and they will send you a reminder to set lineup on Saturday so that way injuries less likely to impact your team.
WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…
Connor McDavid is pretty good at this hockey stuff. He has three goals in four games, including two against the Calgary Flames on opening night. So far, the Oilers are off to a good start on the season, going 3-1-0. It’s early still, obviously, but there’s a lot of hope in Edmonton that this is the season where the Oilers finally turn the corner. Of course, this is also a season where the front office has ditched two first overall draft picks in Taylor Hall and Nail Yakupov.Speaking of Nail Yakupov, he’s been thriving in St. Louis. He’s been eased into the lineup over the Blues’ first four games, playing 13:30 in the Blues’ overtime loss to the Vancouver Canucks. This is his first chance to see the Oilers after the trade; let’s hope that he makes them regret their decision.
TONIGHT
GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers are 2-12-1 in their last 15 games versus the Blues, dating back to January, 2012. However, the Oilers won 6-4 in their last meeting, March 16th in Edmonton. The Blues have scored 3+ goals in 12 of those games, 10 of them being 4+. They are a bad matchup for the Oilers and they’ve only allowed two goals against in each of their four games this year. Hitchcock won’t love it, but this game evolves into an exchange of scoring chances and they go to OT where the Blues win 4-3.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Last year McDavid went pointless in two consecutive games, but he’s never played three games without a point. He scores a goal tonight, in the second period.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: None of Yakupov, Perron or Brodziak score a goal. Ex-Oilers love scoring against the Oilers, and while Yakupov doesn’t get a goal, he picks up an assist. Yakupov is fired up for the game, and he gets a nice round of applause from the crowd. After the game he tells the media he had a very special goal celebration planned to salute the fans, but it will have to wait until the Blues return to Edmonton next year.
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