Edmonton has allowed 18 goals in its current three-game losing streak. It is fair to say that three of those goals you’d like your goalie to stop, but that still leaves 13 goals (I didn’t include the two empty net goals) allowed in three games. It is way too many, and the quality of chances they gave up to Washington and Philadelphia were horrendous.

I’ve mentioned many times the lack of second-line winger production is concerning, mainly because Edmonton doesn’t have enough guys who are comfortable around the net and go there regularly, but their biggest concern is they still give up too many goals and too many chances off the rush at 5×5. Since November 15th, the Oilers are 27th in 5×5 odd-man rushes against and 24th in high-danger rush chances against. It is a problem they need to fix or returning to the Cup Final is a pipe dream.

You can’t overlook their porous penalty kill either. It is either really good or awful. There hasn’t been any in between.

In their first 15 games, the PK was dreadful, allowing 14 goals on 40 kills for a league-worst 59%.

Then, over their next 30 games, they had the best PK in the league at 87.1%, allowing eight goals on 62 kills.

But now they are awful again. In their last 12 games, they’ve allowed 10 goals on 30 kills and rank 30th at 66.7%.

On the season the Oilers rank 26th at 74.1%, which is pretty damning when you consider for over half of this season they had the best PK in the NHL. You can’t pinpoint one main area. Goaltending, defence and the forwards have all played a part in the struggles.

They need to stay out of the box or magically rediscover their penalty-killing prowess. If not, they will get lit up by the fifth-best power play in the NHL.

The PK accurately depicts how Edmonton has been this season. They are either great or terrible. There hasn’t been much in between.

Tampa Bay has only had one PP opportunity in its past three games (the Lightning scored on it in Montreal). Detroit and Seattle didn’t take a penalty v. the Lightning, so it is possible to be disciplined against them, but Edmonton has only had two games where they didn’t take a penalty. It is unlikely the PK won’t see the ice, and lately, they’ve allowed too many passes through the seam.

Washington scored on both PP chances last game. Your odds of winning when you allow two PP goals aren’t good, unless you are the Winnipeg Jets.

Teams are 39-112-16 when allowing two power goals against. This isn’t surprising. The Oilers are 2-5 when they allow two and they are 10-10-1 when they allow one PP goal. Tampa Bay is 1-1 when allowing two and 12-9-2 when they allow one.

On the other side, Tampa Bay’s PP is good.

Teams are 122-26-12 when they score two PP goals in a game. The Oilers have only had six games with multiple PP goals. They had 16 games last year and 25 in 2023 with multiple PP goals. They don’t get as many PP chances this season at 2.53/game down from 3.35 in 2023 and 2.96 last year. The Oilers’ lack of speed and lack of traffic around the goal is a reason they draw fewer calls, at least in my opinion. They don’t force teams into bad positions as often as they did in previous years.

The Oilers aren’t as bad as they’ve shown their past three games, but those games did expose how bad they can be when they don’t play the right way. They are entering the stretch run, and need to start tightening up their defensive play and PK. Tonight will be a really good test vs. Tampa Bay.

Arvidsson – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Savoie
Janmark – RNH – Brown
Kapanen – Henrique – Perry

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson

I don’t understand the Jeff Skinner scratch. Skinner has been very productive offensively since we began 2025. Skinner is tied for second in 5×5 goals with five and he’s tied for third in points with eight. He’s also only played 15 of the 20 games. And he outscored the opposition 9-4 at 5×5. Only Corey Perry (14-2) is better among forwards.

Early in the season, Skinner was giving away the puck, but he’s significantly reduced his giveaways, and it is reflected in his GF-GA. I wouldn’t have scratched him for tonight. Granted, I also don’t think Skinner can help the Oilers in the playoffs. So, long term I don’t see it as a big deal, but based on recent play it is a bit perplexing to me.

Also, something to watch: Connor McDavid has been getting crushed 5×5 in the past four games. He’s been outscored 8-0 and outshot 38-23. His xGF% over that time is 33%. Those are stunning numbers for him and illustrate how rough of a stretch he’s had. In 18 minutes with Draisaitl they’ve been outscored 2-0. However, Draisaitl has outscored opponents 4-1 in 48 minutes without McDavid. Wild stuff.

John Klingberg gets a night off. I suspect this is more about getting Troy Stecher in a game than Klingberg’s play. Stecher hasn’t played since February 1st, and this does allow Klingberg to not play three games in four nights after his lengthy time off.

Guentzel – Point –Kucherov
Hagel – Cirelli – Girgensons
Chaffee – Paul – Gonclaves
Eyssimont – Glendening

Hedman – Moser
McDonagh – Cernak
Lilleberg – Raddysh
Perbix

Tampa is rolling, winning five in a row. Edmonton is 1-7 in Tampa Bay during the McDavid/Draisaitl era. At the best of times, this has been a bad matchup for Edmonton, and their recent play makes it even more challenging. They have to slow down the top line to have any chance of success.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers lose four in a row for the first time this season. Tampa wins 4-3.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers don’t get much traffic in front of the net.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Savoie scores his first NHL goal.