The Oilers and Canucks both play their final preseason game tonight in preparation for starting the regular season next Wednesday. Edmonton will host Winnipeg, while Vancouver has Calgary in town.

Both teams will dress mainly NHL players tonight, and it will be the final opportunity for players on the bubble to impress their coaches, although the decision on who will make the roster is likely already decided.

The main decision/debate/discussion surrounding Edmonton focuses on its right defence. Evan Bouchard is locked in on their top pair, but Ty Emberson, Troy Stecher, Josh Brown, and Travis Dermott are battling for the second and third pair spots as well as the seventh defender. Emberson, Stecher and Brown shoot right, while Dermott is the lone lefty. Dermott also doesn’t have a contract, which impacts his chance of making the team.

Emberson has been paired with Darnell Nurse through much of the preseason, and those two will play their first game together tonight. Emberson will be on the roster and get the first chance to secure the second pair slot. For today, I’m not including him in the battle for the final two spots.

The other three all played for Arizona last season. Brown played 51 games, Dermott 50, and Stecher 46 before being dealt to Edmonton, where he played another seven. Here’s a quick tale of the tape for all three.

Stecher: 494 GP. 5’10”, 185 pounds. 19-91-110 with 225 PIMs. He is 30 years old.
Brown: 290 GP. 6’5″, 220 pounds. 11-23-34 with 296 PIMS. He is also 30 years old.
Dermott: 329 GP. 5’11”, 200 pounds. 16-46-62 with 128 PIMs. He turns 28 in December.

Here are stats in Arizona last season.

Brown actually outscored both of them. Brown took one more minor than Dermott and two more than Stecher. Brown is more physical, but he also didn’t take any more hits than them.

Here are their analytics via NaturalStatTrick.

Brown had the worst stats in regard to possession as he was outshot and out chanced the most.  But he was even in GF-GA, while Dermott was -16 and their xGF% was similar. Stecher was +4 at 5×5 and had the best stats, which doesn’t surprise me.

We can dig a bit deeper and see who they played against courtesy of PuckIQ.com. Here’s a look at them v. Elite competition, middle and grit.

Brown played the fewest minutes and had the same DFF% and GF% as Dermott. Stecher was the best, by a significant margin.

Stecher played the most minutes, and again had the best numbers. Dermott leaked goals badly getting outscored 17-4.

Brown played the most minutes and had the best GF-GA. He is best suited to play a third-pair role against bottom-nine forwards, and that is how he was deployed in Arizona.

If I was ranking them, I’d have Stecher first, Brown second and Dermott third. I have Dermott third because he’s a left shot, and moreso because what does he offer that is different than Stecher?

Dermott doesn’t skate as well as Stecher, and Stecher is a natural right defender. Stecher can also play the left side and did so for around 35% of his minutes the past few seasons in Arizona. I see many have already written Brown off. Brown is limited in what he can do, but I don’t understand all the anger towards him. He is what he is — a big, physical defender, who can fight and block shots. He has never been a good puck mover, so expecting him to come to Edmonton and do that is odd. If Brown doesn’t move the puck well, then be upset at management who signed him. He is the same player today as he was the past few seasons.

I also wouldn’t overreact to a few preseason games. I don’t expect Brown to be a regular in the Oilers’ playoff lineup. He likely won’t be an everyday defender in the regular season either, but the reason I expect him to be on the roster over Dermott is because he brings a different element of toughness to the team. And the Oilers will need that during the regular season, especially with Evander Kane injured and Vincent Desharnais playing in Vancouver. The Oilers don’t have many physical players, and while you might not like Brown’s analytics, which is valid, he brings an element the team will need, at least until the trade deadline. I’d expect them to add a right-shot defender who can defend, has some skill and is bigger and more physical than Dermott and Stecher.

I wonder if the Oilers and Dermott agree to have him stay around and skate with the team, similar to how Chris Kelly did in 2017-18. Kelly was a bit different, because he wanted to practice and stay in shape so he could make the Olympic team. And he did. I’m sure Dermott will want a contract, but would he sign a two-way deal? Edmonton would like him in the organization for more depth, but will he agree to that? He might wait a week and see if other offers pop up, or if a team has an injury early in the season. There are a few options for the Oilers and Dermott to consider. Or maybe he is just released.

The other roster decision will be if they carry 12 or 13 healthy forwards. They might start with 12, to accrue cap space, but it is only a matter of time before a forward gets banged up, even short term, and they will need another body. Will they want Noah Philp in the lineup, or do they prefer to accrue cap space?

I watched FACEOFF: Inside the NHL episodes five and six earlier this week. It is very good. I think Oilers fans will appreciate the behind-the-scenes footage, a mic’d up Evander Kane and more. We can discuss it more next week, as I don’t want to write more about it until fans have a chance to see it themselves. The Oilers didn’t hold much back, which is how it should be, if you agree to do a project like this.

RNH – McDavid – Hyman
J. Skinner – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
Janmark – Henrique – C. Brown
Podkolzin – Philp – Perry

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Emberson
Kulak – Stecher

Skinner

We will see Nurse and Emberson for the first time in a game. They have practiced together for the past three weeks, so they do have some familiarity, just not during game action. Noah Philp gets another look and I believe he’s earned a spot on the opening night roster.

Heinen – Miller – Boeser
Debrusk – Pettersson – Sprong
Hoglander – Raty – Garland
Bains – Blueger – Sherwood

Hughes – Hronek
Soucy – Myers
Forbort – Desharnais

Silovs

JT Miller will play his first preseason game. He has been practicing, but similar to Nurse, they were cautious with his return to the lineup. Quinn Hughes will play his second game. I’m curious to see if the Canucks keep him and Hronek together all season or split them up. I think they will be a better team if they are in separate pairs. Keifer Sherwood has had a very strong camp and has likely earned a spot on the roster. Youngsters Aatu Raty and Arshdeep Bains have also played well and are right in the mix.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers won’t allow six goals for the fifth time this preseason. They can’t, can they? Oilers and Canucks play a safe preseason game that ends 3-2 in Vancouver’s favour.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers score a power play goal.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Jeff Skinner scores.