After wrapping up their week at home with a win over the Penguins, the Edmonton Oilers are hitting the road for four, with the first game in the set coming against the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena.
The Oilers are hitting the road for the second time this season for four games in seven days, culminating in a Battle of Alberta at the Saddledom on Sunday, November 3rd. First up is a trip to Detroit for the first of two meetings against a Red Wings team that is looking to get back in the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Detroit comes into today’s contest with a 4-4-0 record through eight games, including a 5-3 loss at the hands of the Buffalo Sabres yesterday.
To this point in their season, the Red Wings have struggled with consistency. They either score goals in bunches or give them up as freely at the other end, and the results have understandably been mixed. One night, they’ll come up with a big win over the New Jersey Devils, while on another, they’ll get stomped by the Pittsburgh Penguins. In so many ways, the Red Wings really are a mixed bag. So, when we look ahead at this afternoon’s game, the approach for the Oilers should be to expect anything and everything.
One area where the Red Wings have struggled so far is with producing offence at 5v5. If you look at the shot metrics, their CF% is sitting at a paltry 41.11, which basically means that they’re bleeding shot attempts at even strength. And after reading through a handful of posts on the Detroit Subreddit, what sticks out is that their fanbase is frustrated that the Wings aren’t putting enough on net. That makes a lot of sense when you look at the broader shot number and see they’re averaging only 24.6 shots per game. It’s a number that bodes well for an Oilers team already doing a good job of not giving up many shots on goal.
Where we could see some real chaos, though, is on special teams. The Red Wings and Oilers come into today’s game ranked 31st and 32nd in PK percentage, and that leads me to believe that what happens on the power play will likely play a major role in the outcome. The problem, of course, is we don’t know who will be on the right side of that line yet. Edmonton’s power play is only running at a 14.3% clip right now, whereas Detroit’s is doing better at 19.2%. How much will that difference matter? Does it matter?
All I know for sure is that the Oilers will need to come up with another strong effort if they plan on turning Friday’s win into a pair. Even with the Red Wings playing yesterday in Buffalo, there are no givens in the NHL, and it’s going to take effort and execution to get the job done. Thankfully, the Oilers got plenty of both in their last time out, and I’m hopeful that some of that momentum will carry over to Little Caesars Arena this afternoon.
Let’s see what the numbers say.
THE NUMBERS
OILERS | RED WINGS | |
RECORD | 3-4-1 | 4-4-0 |
WIN/LOSS STREAK | w1 | L1 |
GOALS FOR | 18 | 23 |
GOALS AGAINST | 27 | 25 |
POWER PLAY% | 14.3 | 19.2 |
PENALTY KILL% | 58.3 | 64.3 |
AVG. SHOTS/FOR | 34.6 | 24.6 |
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST | 26.3 | 35.0 |
TEAM SAVE% | .916 | .938 |
CORSI FOR% | 58.90 | 41.11 |
PDO | .967 | 1.028 |
TEAM SHOOTING% | 5.13 | 8.97 |
EXPECTED GOALS FOR% | 57.90 | 41.23 |
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)
- The Oilers took both games against the Red Wings last season by a combined score of 11-6 and earned at least a point in each of their past five games against Detroit (4-0-1). After this afternoon’s contest, we’ll wrap up the season series on January 30th at Rogers Place.
- Corey Perry leads all active Oilers in career games (48) versus Detroit and is tied with Connor McDavid for most career points (23) against them.
- Since he was acquired by the Oilers from the Nashville Predators at the 2023 trade deadline, Mattias Ekholm has a +73 +/- rating in 108 games, which is the best plus/minus rating amongst all players in the NHL in that span. I know we don’t care about that stat much anymore, but I still thought it was too good not to share when I found it this morning.
- Happy 29th birthday, Leon!
LINEUPS…
Oilers
Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
Skinner– Henrique – Brown
Janmark – Ryan – Perry
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
Skinner– Henrique – Brown
Janmark – Ryan – Perry
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Pickard
It’s no surprise that Kris Knoblauch is keeping his line combos together after Friday’s win, but we will get a change in net, with Calvin Pickard getting his third start of the year. I’m a little bit surprised that Pickard is getting the call given that Skinner just locked in his fifth career shutout, but I’m also assuming that this rotation was already part of the plan.
Red Wings
DeBrincat – Larkin – Raymond
Tarasenko – Compher – Kane
Rasmussen – Copp – Fischer
Veleno – Kasper – Berggren
Tarasenko – Compher – Kane
Rasmussen – Copp – Fischer
Veleno – Kasper – Berggren
Edvinsson – Seider
Chiarot – Petry
Gustafsson – Holl
Chiarot – Petry
Gustafsson – Holl
Talbot
Looking at the Red Wings’ stats page, what sticks out immediately is that the bulk of Detroit’s offence is coming from their top line of Raymond, DeBrincat, and Larkin. Those three have combined for nearly half of the goals scored so far, and it will be crucial for the Oilers to be aware when those three are on the ice. Next up is the Veleno, Compher, Kane second line that has four goals between them, but enough skill to break out at any moment if given the opportunity.
TONIGHT…
Game Day Prediction: The Oilers start their road trip with plenty of pace, leading them to a 6-1 win.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: The special teams play a significant factor in the result. Whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing remains to be seen.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Viktor Arvidsson had his best game as an Oiler on Friday night against the Penguins, and he follows it up with his first goal of the season to give the boys some insurance.
