In the first round of the playoffs, the Los Angeles Kings didn’t forecheck very hard, were quite passive in the neutral zone and played man-to-man in the defensive zone. The Vegas Golden Knights are completely different. They will forecheck and roll four lines, rarely sit back in the neutral zone and play more zone defence — and were the best team in the regular season at scoring off the rush.
What makes the playoffs so great, outside of the increased intensity of the games, is how teams match up. The Kings have been a great matchup for the Oilers for four years. The only times the Oilers got in trouble were usually self-inflicted wounds from glaring giveaways. The Oilers are a puck possession team, and when you give them time and space, they will make you pay.
Vegas will try to take that away in this series. They will pressure the Oilers’ defence much more than LA did. Vegas is also much bigger and longer on defence. The Oilers will have to skate through them more than they did against LA, but I think the Oilers’ forward group can have success against Vegas. Now that they are healthy, the forwards group has a great mixture of skill, size, speed and physicality. They can crash and bang with Evander Kane, Zach Hyman, Trent Frederic, Adam Henrique and Vasily Podkolzin, and four of those forwards can finish. Corey Perry excels playing in tight spaces, same with Viktor Arvidsson, especially when he can stay on his feet. Mattias Janmark, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Connor Brown have speed and check more with their feet and sticks, and then there’s the elite skill of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
The Oilers wore down LA mainly due to the brutal decision by the Kings coaches to rely heavily on nine forwards and four D-men. Vegas rolls four lines and six D-men. They won’t tire as quickly as the Kings did.
Vegas’ forwards aren’t as quick as LA’s but Vegas is actually much more dangerous off the rush. Jack Eichel and Mark Stone are very effective off the rush, mainly with Eichel carrying the puck, and then Stone finding the open area in the offensive zone. Where Vegas can exploit the Oilers is in transition. Kris Knoblauch outlined what his team needs to be aware of.
“They scored more goals than any team in the NHL (regular season) off the rush,” said Knoblauch. “Whether it is a change of possession inside their defensive zone and they have quick transition going the other way, their forwards can make good plays off the rush if you give them space. They can beat you many different ways off the rush.”
Matt Boldy and Kirill Kaprizov gave Vegas fits in their first round series. No offence to them, they are very good, but they aren’t as skilled as McDavid or Draisaitl. Knoblauch will start them on the same line, and I see that as the main story line of for tomorrow night.
McDavid and Draisaitl didn’t have any points 5×5 in Game 5 or 6, yet the Oilers still scored six 5×5 goals and won both games. That speaks to the depth of the Oilers, but history suggests McDavid and Draisaitl are rarely held in check very long, especially in the playoffs. They can take over a game at any point.
Rewind to Game 1 of the 2023 series between these two clubs. Draisaitl scored four goals in the Oilers’ 6-4 loss. Vegas had no answer for the Oilers’ top line, and while I don’t expect another four-goal performance from Draisaitl, the first line has the potential to dominate any team, including Vegas. I’m curious how many shifts Perry will play with the dynamic duo. He can’t play as many minutes as they do, so Knoblauch rotates in Hyman, Kane, Frederic and others at times. Vegas isn’t as quick as LA, and that plays into Perry’s style. He excels in small-area battles, and his size and length will help him against Vegas’ larger blueliners.
Vegas ended its series against Minnesota with William Karlsson playing with Eichel and Stone, and I’d guess they will see a lot of McDavid’s line to start the series. I suspect Knoblauch will not be shy to have McDavid face Eichel. In 2023, Jay Woodcroft opted not to play McDavid against Eichel, and that played a big role in the Oilers losing. Eichel crushed the Oilers, outscoring them 7-1 at 5×5, and I was perplexed by the decision not to have McDavid out against him more often, especially on home ice.
In 2023, Eichel and Stone were on separate lines, with Eichel flanked by Ivan Barbashev and Jonathan Marchessault while Stone played with Chandler Stephenson and Brett Howden. This year, Stone and Eichel are together while Tomas Hertl is on the second line with Brandon Saad and Pavel Dorofeyev. Dorofeyev was injured for Game 6, and GM Kelly McCrimmon said this morning he is still day-to-day. Keagan Kolesar moved up to his spot in Game 6, and that is a clear drop in finishing skill.
Vegas, like the Oilers, has a solid bottom six, but the Oilers’ bottom six was much more productive in the opening round. As a team, the Oilers scored 15 goals 5×5 v. LA, while Vegas had 10. Howden (2) and Barbashev were the only bottom-six forwards with goals, while Janmark (2), Brown, Henrique, Frederic and Arvidsson scored. Not to mention Darnell Nurse’s huge goal in Game 6 with the Janmark line.
Now that they are healthy, the Oilers’ bottom six is very strong, and they should be able to match up well against any of the remaining eight teams. The challenge for the Oilers will be limiting the glaring errors.
“Outside of Game 6, I thought we defended well,” said Knoblauch. “There is a difference between making a mistake and defending. I thought we didn’t give up many opportunities from the other team making plays, because I thought we checked well. We gave up many opportunities from self-inflicted mistakes. A lot of those off the breakouts, just not making a play, maybe a turnover in the neutral zone. Those kinds of things are more of an offensive-type play that went wrong. I thought that as the series went on, we got a lot better in those types of plays. We will have to defend very differently due to how Vegas plays to LA, but we want to defend as well as we did, for the most part, but limit the key mistakes.”
QUICK HITS…
— I expect this series to be much more emotionally charged. Vegas is more aggressive than LA, and the Oilers have a lot of tough, gritty players who are physical. There wasn’t one LA player who really annoyed the Oilers or the fans. That will change this series. I bet after Game 1 Oilersnation will have more disdain for a few Vegas players than it had the entire LA series.
— What a weekend for the NHL playoffs. Two Game 7s and both saw multi-goal comebacks in the third period. In the 100+ years of the NHL, there had only been three previous Game 7 winners to overcome a two-goal deficit in the third period. Unreal.
— Rob Blake and the LA Kings agreed to part ways. Under Blake’s tenure, the Kings never won a playoff series in eight seasons, and the organization has never changed its approach. The Kings have always had a defence-first mentality. They will have a new GM, and they could have a new head coach, as usually the new GM likes to hire his own guy. I’m curious to see if the organization will continue with the defence-first mentality or opt to be more aggressive offensively.
— The Avalanche will feel the pain of not wanting to pay Mikko Rantanen for years to come. To let him go over the alleged small difference of $500K/year (or less) is wild. He crushed the Avs in the final three games, scoring 11 points. Be careful what you wish for when you opt to move an elite player instead of signing him.
— I’m happy for Winnipeg Jets fans. That would have been a devastating series loss. Scoring two goals in the final 1:56 and then winning in OT on home ice was massive for a franchise that hasn’t had much success. To win without their best forward (Mark Schiefele) and their best d-man (Josh Morrissey, only played two minutes before leaving with injury) showed their grit and desire. However, if Connor Hellebuyck doesn’t show up, they have no chance against a deeper Dallas team.
