In 1991, the New Jersey Devils selected Scott Niedermayer 3rd overall. He is one of the best #3 picks in history along with Denis Savard, Pat Lafontaine and Henrik Sedin, and Jonathan Toews should be in the conversation when his career is over.

I’ve said for months I didn’t expect the Oilers to trade up or down, and I suspect they will use their pick tonight. 

But how good will their pick be? It is impossible to say, but here is a history of the #3 pick, as well as all the top-four picks over the past 35 seasons.

I have included the top four picks, because some have dubbed this class “The Fab Four”, although not all of the draft publications have Sam Reinhart, Aaron Ekblad, Sam Bennett and Leon Draisaitl rated in the top-four.

Here is a look at the top four picks since 1979.

Mike Foligno was a solid NHL player and he ended up having the 13th most points in his draft class and played the 14th most games. Not a bad pick, but Mike Gartner 4th, Rick Vaive 5th, Ray Bourque (8th), Brian Propp (14th) and Michel Goulet (20th) all went after him in the first round. There were some very good finds in the later rounds as well, like Mark Messier and Glenn Anderson, but I’m going to stick with first round picks in this article.

Denis Savard became a Hall of Famer. Only Paul Coffey (6th) and Jari Kurri (69th) had more points than Savard from his draft class. He was an outstanding pick at #3. Habs and Jets fans must still cringe when they think about this draft.

Bobby Carpenter finished 5th in points and 6th in games played amongst his class, so this was another strong pick. Of course Ron Francis turned out to be better, as did Grant Fuhr (8th) and Al MacInnis (12th), but this was a solid pick by the Capitals. You can’t expect to always pick the best player, you just hope your scouts don’t completely swing and miss.

All four of the top teams missed on Scott Stevens (5th), Phil Housley (6th) and Dave Andreychuk (16th). Kluzak’s career was cut short due to knee problems, while Nylund had a solid, but not spectacular career. Taking rugged D-men early in the draft rarely works out. Nylund was tough and he had 66 points in 65 games the year he was drafted. He had four 20-point seasons with Toronto, but he was never going to became the player you’d like to get when you pick #3.

Lafontaine was an excellent player, and if concussions hadn’t shortened his career he likely would have had 1500+ points. Only Yzerman ended up with more points than Lafontaine. As a Whalers fan, this draft always disgusted me. Why they choose a winger over two high scoring centres has always annoyed me. I miss the Whalers. *sheds a tear.* Great pick at #3 for the Islanders.

The only first rounder taken after Olczyk with more points was Gary Roberts (12th). Some would argue they’d take Shayne Corson (8th) who played more games, was tougher and close in points, or D-man Kevin Hatcher (17th), but Olczyk carved out a solid career and finished 10th in scoring amongst his draft class. A solid pick.

The only first rounders who played 1,000+ games were Dave Manson (11th) and Calle Johansson (14th). It wasn’t a banner class, and Clark and Simpson still finished amongst the top-ten scorers from 1985, despite injuries cutting their careers short.

Wolanin only played one season in the OHL before being drafted. He was a stay-at-home D-man in junior and he was the same in his 13 NHL seasons. Injuries plagued him throughout his career, and when you compare him to the rest of the first round he was an okay pick, in a weak draft class.

Neil Brady had the distinction of being the worst #3 overall pick in the past 35 years, but it wasn’t solely his fault. The Devils never should have been taken that high. He only scored 81 points in 72 WHL games in his draft year. The top-ten scorers in the WHL that year ranged from 126-173 points. He was only an average scorer in junior, and he never made the jump to the NHL. I wonder if the pressure of being the #3 pick got to him, or if he just peaked as an 18 year-old. 

Wesley was a great pick by the Bruins. Only Shanahan played more games than Wesley, and he was a top-pairing defender for many years and also was 10th in scoring from his draft class. Joe Sakic went 15th that year, but the Bruins got a solid player. Every team between 4th and 14th missed the boat. The Bruins had the 14th pick and took Stephane Quintal (played 1,037) games so he was a strong pick, but it is strange that they took two D-men 3rd and 14th. They could have left that draft with Sakic and Wesley.

Leschyshyn played the 11th most games in his draft year. He was a steady, but not spectacular D-man. Jeremy Roenick, Rod Brind’Amour and Teemu Selanne went 8th, 9th and 10th respectively so the Nordiques missed out on some quality scorers, but the only D-men to play more games than Leschyshyn were Rob Blake (70th pick) and Bret Hedican (198th).

Thornton finished 13th in games played, but he was never more than a solid 3rd liner. He did have one 26-goal season in San Jose, and was always a popular player in the room. Stu Barnes and Bill Guerin went 4th and 5th respectively while Bobby Holik went 12th. Seven of the 21 first-round picks played fewer than 70 NHL games. It was the start of the European dominance. The four best players in this class were Nick Lidstrom (53rd), Pavel Bure (113th), Sergei Federov (74th) and Sundin.

All four teams missed out on the eventual best player, Jaromir Jagr went 5th to the Pittsburgh Penguins and he is 45 points shy of becoming only the 4th player in NHL history to score 1800 points. Primeau was a solid pick, but concussions cut his career short. He still finished 19th in GP and 13th in points despite his concussions.

The Devlis selected a Hall of Famer in Niedermayer. One of the best 3rd overall picks ever. The San Jose Sharks must have had nightmares for years over passing on Niedermayer and taking Pat “Potato Head” Falloon.

It was the year of D-men and Europeans. Rathje was a good NHL player, but Darius Kasparaitis (5th), Sergei Gonchar (14th) and Jason Smith (18th) became better NHL defenders. This draft produced no Hall of Famer and Gonchar is the points leader with 797.

The Senators regret taking Daigle first overall. Gratton became a solid NHL player, 13th in points and 12th in GP, but Tampa missed out on Kariya and Jason Arnott (7th). Fun fact for Oilers fans, Arnott finished with the second most points from his draft class, 938.

Radek Bonk’s mullet was better than Ryan Smyth’s (6th pick), but Smyth became a better player. Bonk finished 8th in GP and 10th in points. The Oilers took Bonsignore instead of Jeff O’Neill (5th). That pick still stings Oiler fans today. The Nation’s Jason Strudwick was drafted 63rd this year, and he overachieved playing the 29th most games in his class. Atta boy Struds.

The Kings choose a big, steady D-man over offensive skilled player like Damon Langdow (5th), Shane Doan (7th), Radek Dvorak (10th), Jarome Iginla (11th) and Petr Sykora (18th). Berg was not a great pick for the Kings.

This was a very low scoring draft class. Dumont ended up with the 5th most points in his class. Daniel Briere (24th) was the best offensive player, 684 points, but overall this draft didn’t produce much offence. Dumont was a very good pick in an otherwise average draft class.

That is a solid top-four. The Kings had drafted goalie Jamie Storr, 7th overall in 1994, and likely why they passed on Luongo. Marian Hossa(12th) is the only first round skater taken after Jokinen who became better. Jokinen is 3rd in GP and 4th in points. Solid pick.

Stuart became a solid NHL defender. I don’t see any other first rounders the Sharks could have taken who would have been better. He had a very good career and the only D-man who people would rank higher from this class is Andrei Markov (162nd). Solid pick for the Sharks and they used Stuart as the main piece in the Joe Thornton trade.

The Canucks announced Daniel and Henrik at the same time, and I think Henrik ended up third because due to the alphabet. Either way the Canucks made two outstanding picks. Henrik has the most points and GP thus far. Henrik Zetterberg (210th) is the only player in the same category as the twins. The only other players taken in the first round with 200 career points are Martin Havlat (26th), Tim Connolly (5th) and Taylor Pyatt (8th). Barret Jackman (17th) became the best D-man from this year.

Gaborik has become the most dynamic player of his class. Heatley had a great start to his career, back-to-back 50-goal seasons, but he’s slowed down considerably the past four seasons. Nation overlord Brian Sutherby was the 26th pick this year. Even with his back and concussion issues he is still 32nd in GP. Not bad Suds, not bad at all.

Svitov was a bust, he also was a spitter. He spat in Sutherby’s face in the world juniors, “It almost went in my mouth. Gross.” Sutherby explained. The Bolts missed on out Weiss, Mikko Koivu (6th), Dan Hamhuis (12th) and Ales Hemsky (13th). The Oilers made a great pick with Hemsky. He is 5th in points and 12th in GP thus far.

The Panthers made a great pick in Bouwmeester. He’s played the most games, is 9th in points and the only player taken after him who is better is Duncan Keith (45th). Every player in the top-15 has played 445 games or more so far except two. The Panthers hit a home run with Bouwmeester but struck out on Petr Taticek (9th), while the Oilers inexplicably took Jesse Niinimaki 15th overall. Ugh.

In most draft years Horton would be considered a very good pick, and he still was, however, the 2003 class was incredibly deep. Tomas Vanek (5th), Ryan Suter (7th), Dion Phaneuf (9th), Jeff Carter (11th), Dustin Brown (13th), Brent Seabrook (14th), Zach Parise (17th), Ryan Getzlaf (19th), Ryan Kesler (23rd), Mike Richards (24th) and Corey Perry (28th) have all become very good. The Panthers made a solid pick.

Barker was highly regarded coming out of junior, but his junior game never transferred to the NHL. Ladd and Blake Wheeler (5th) would have been better, but the rest of the early picks weren’t great. Ladislav Smid at #9 was the best D-man in the top-20. Boris Valabik (10th) played 80 games while A.J. Thelan (12th) played none. Barker was rated high, but never panned out and the worst part for the Blackhawks was that Washington won the lottery and pushed them down to third.

Johnson was a solid pick. The Hurricanes had taken Cam Ward in 2002 and that could have been a factor in not choosing Carey Price (5th). Johnson is a good but not great and Marc Staal (12th), is the only amongst the top-20 picks who is better. Decent pick.

Outstanding pick by the Blackhawks. Toews is the best player in his class. Had Pittsburgh taken Toews instead of Staal, how many Cups would they have right now? Scary to think of Crosby, Malkin and Toews on the same line.

Turris will be a serviceable pick, but right now it looks like more of a miss than a hit. Karl Alzner (5th), Sam Gagner (6th), Jakub Voracek (7th), Logan Couture (9th), Ryan McDonagh (12th) and Kevin Shattenkirk (14th) have all become better NHL players. Phoenix, LA, Washington, Edmonton, Columbus and Boston (3rd-8th) all wish they had seen what the Sharks did in Couture. The Sharks traded up to take Couture.

I think this is a great example of why you shouldn’t rush D-men into the NHL. Bogosian played as an 18-year-old, while Alex Pietrangelo spent two more years in junior before becoming a regular in 2010/2011. I’ll always wonder how much, if any, rushing Bogosian to the NHL impacted his development. He is a solid top-four D-man, but Pietrangelo is an Olympian. It is still too early to evaluate the overall class, but Bogosian looks like a solid pick.

Barring a major injury Duchene looks like an outstanding pick at #3. Right now the only major mistake in the top-10 looks like Scott Glennie who was taken 8th by Dallas.

Johansen was the classic late bloomer. He was 19th on Bob McKenzie’s mid term ranking and 6th on his final one. His NHL career mirrored what the projections were. He would need some time to develop, but his overall raw skill was very high. We saw that this past season. My concern with the Gudbranson pick then and now was that everyone said he had offensive limitations. He was big, strong and physical, but I don’t take a defensive D-man with a top-three pick. I think Gudbranson will have a long NHL career, but he’s more like Jason Smith than Chris Pronger. A valuable player on your team, but not someone I’d use a #3 pick on.

Too early to evaluate this draft. All of the top ten picks have played in the NHL already, and early on Jonas Brodin at #10, looks like a better NHL D-man than Larsson. It will be fun watching this draft class unfold over the next ten seasons.

Again, too soon to say. Eighteen of the 30 first rounders have already played in the NHL.

MacKinnon had an outstanding rookie season. Seth Jones was ranked #1 or #2 for most of his draft year, so time will tell if Florida and Tampa made errors or if choosing a forward was the right move.

History suggests the Oilers will get a good NHL player, and if they develop him properly they could end up with a franchise player.

Over the last 35 years we’ve only seen three “busts at #3:” Brady, Barker and Svitov.

The rest have all played 600 games (picks from 2005-2013 excluded), but unless they suffer a major injury most are projecting to do the same. They varied in degrees of ability, and the remaining forwards all became pretty decent NHL players. 

There is no consensus number one player in this year’s draft, so it very likely that the player picked first tonight won’t be the best in the future. Unless these top four players have fooled all of the scouts, the Oilers should get a solid player at #3.

I would take Leon Draisaitl, but I won’t be shocked if Buffalo grabs him either. They could use a big, skilled centre as much as the Oilers.

Good luck to all the players drafted. It is a huge accomplishment just to be drafted, and hopefully they enjoy it regardless of where they are selected.

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