The Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers are in the Stanley Cup Final, due largely to their respective success on the road. After their Game 2 overtime victory, the Panthers are 9-3 on the road this postseason, while the Oilers roll into Florida winners of six of their last seven road games.
Edmonton isn’t intimidated on the road. In their last seven road games the Oilers have outscored LA, Vegas and Dallas 25-16 and outshot them 219-165.
The Oilers have bludgeoned teams at 5×5 outscoring them 19-7. Their penalty kill has been the issue, allowing eight goals on 19 kills, and if they can tighten up the PK, they will have an excellent chance to get a split in Florida, or possibly win both games.
The Panthers have been very average on home ice going 4-3. They’ve been shutout twice and both games came when they had an opportunity to win the series (Game 4 v. Carolina and Game 6 v. Toronto). However, they’ve also had convincing victories beating Carolina 6-2 and blanking Toronto 2-0.
Edmonton’s road success is due to its lineup depth. In their last seven road games 15 different Oiler players have scored a goal and all of them scored at even strength. The Oilers have been winning on the road despite a lethargic power play which is 3-for-19 in that span, however, the PP has scored in three-consecutive road games (3-for-10) and it is has a goal in seven-consecutive games overall.
Kris Knoblauch trusts his players. He uses all four lines on the road, with every forward averaging at least 11:21/game in the last five road games and 10:32/game over the last seven. He doesn’t worry if his fourth line of Vasily Podkolzin, Mattias Janmark and Viktor Arvidsson are out against the opponent’s top line. His top players have averaged fewer minutes on the road than at home.
Despite all of the positives, it is important to point out that none of their road success occurred in Florida. The Panthers are much more aggressive than LA, Dallas or Vegas. The Oilers have struggled getting out of their own zone cleanly so far this series. They’ve averaged 19 turnovers through two games v. Florida after having 13.9/game in the first three rounds. Florida will continue to forecheck aggressively and dump the puck in repeatedly, often on rims that force the D-man to play the puck on his backhand.
The Oilers’ D-men, and forwards, kept trying to dump the puck up the boards and Florida continually would knock it down or intercept the pass. The Oilers need to reduce their turnovers. It won’t be easy, but they’ve shown in the past they can adapt to how teams play and minimize their strengths.
That will be the key if they want to continue their success on the road.
SNAPSHOTS…
— You can’t get much closer than the first two games of this series. Both went to OT with each team winning once. This is the sixth time in Stanley Cup Final history the first two games went to OT. The first five occurred in 1946, 1951, 2012, 2013 and 2014. The 1951 series between Toronto and Montreal is the only series that had OT in each of the first three games (and the fourth).
— Six previous series have had at least three games go to OT — in 2014 (Kings won all three in OT), 2013, 1993, 1951 and 1946. The 1951 series is the only one with four OT games.
— Weird stat: Sam Bennett set an NHL record with his 12th playoff goal on the road in Game 1. However, he only has one goal at home. I don’t think he plays much different at home or on the road, but this year he is thriving on the road.
— Bennett has become public enemy #1 for Oilers fans, and the Oilers players, with his play around the net. Well, to be honest, Maple Leafs fans and Hurricanes fans despised him as well. He has the Oilers’ attention. “You don’t like it when guys are purposely falling into your goaltender. You hope that gets noticed, but I think both teams are making it a point to go hard — and go even harder as the series goes along — to their net,” said Evander Kane.
— Bennett was called for goalie interference in Game 2 when he fell on Stuart Skinner. The refs are aware of it, but I don’t expect Bennett to stop going to the net. If he “falls” it will be closely monitored by the official.
— I appreciate players when they give honest answers. Aaron Ekblad was asked what the biggest challenge is when facing McDavid on the power play. “He’s got multiple options, so that’s the biggest challenge. You are trying to block a shot, trying to block a low pass, a backdoor pass and a walk-on-water toe drag, so yeah, McJesus.” Ekblad was referring to McDavid’s ridiculous play to set up Leon Draisaitl.
— Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will be a game-time decision. He didn’t practice yesterday, but he did skate this morning. Knoblauch said he will take warmup and they will make a decision. However, it was reported by many in Florida that Jeff Skinner, who skated in RNH’s spot yesterday, and would be the player dressing if RNH can’t play, did remain on the ice after most players left. Usually, that is a sign he won’t be playing.
LINEUPS…
Oilers
RNH – McDavid – Perry
Kane – Draisaitl – Kapanen
Frederic – Henrique – Brown
Podkolzin – Janmark – Arvidsson
Kane – Draisaitl – Kapanen
Frederic – Henrique – Brown
Podkolzin – Janmark – Arvidsson
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Kulak
Walman – Klingberg
Nurse – Kulak
Walman – Klingberg
Skinner
I sense RNH will play. In the first two games, Knoblauch started McDavid and Draisaitl on their own lines but then put them together later in the games. The Oilers have been dominated in the second period of both games. Both teams are good, and they will have stretches where they control the play, but the second period has been a challenge for the Oilers. It has led to them trailing both games heading into the third periods. They did tie the game both games and push it to overtime, which is good, but that isn’t a trend they want to continue.
Panthers
Rodrigues – Barkov – Reinhart
Verhaeghe – Bennett– Tkachuk
Luostarinen – Lundell – Marchand
Greer – Nosek – Gadjovich
Verhaeghe – Bennett– Tkachuk
Luostarinen – Lundell – Marchand
Greer – Nosek – Gadjovich
Forsling – Ekblad
Mikkola – Jones
Schmidt – Kulikov
Mikkola – Jones
Schmidt – Kulikov
Bobrovsky
AJ Greer is healthy and draws back in. Don’t downplay his importance to the Panthers. He adds a lot of energy to their group. He’s another aggressive forechecker the Oilers need to be aware of. It hasn’t been talked about much, but Barkov and Reinhart were very quiet the first two games. The Panthers need them to contribute. Neither has a point and both have been outscored 5×5.
TONIGHT…
Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk
GAME DAY PREDICTION: Edmonton bounces back with a 4-3 victory.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers’ PP scores, making it eight-straight games with a PP goal.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Leon Draisaitl records a hat trick.
