Game 1 between the Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings starts tonight.
While hockey fans across the world got to tune into the start of the playoffs over Saturday and Sunday, Oilers fans sat patiently awaiting their own team to drop the puck. Similarly, the Oilers had to do the same, getting practices in on Friday and Sunday with different lines in each tune up.
For the first time, these two teams — meeting for the fourth straight year — will kick off the series in Southern California as opposed to Edmonton for the last three meetings. Not having home ice isn’t ideal, but it doesn’t seem to bother the team.
In fact, last week, Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch said he felt his team was as good on the road as they were at home.
“Our record at home and away is almost identical. It’s always nice to play here at Rogers, the support of the fans, we’d like that, but we’re as good of a road team as we are at home, so we’re ready for that.”
Is he right?

At home

The Oilers had the 13th best record in the league at home going 25-13-3 with a .646 points percentage where, at five-on-five, they narrowly outscored the opposition 87-86. That 50.3 percent goal share put them in the 39th percentile for home team goal shares this season. It’s not like the Oilers didn’t dominate play, as their 56.3 percent expected goal share was actually third among home teams, ranking in the 94th percentile. So what gives?
Sinking them on home ice was their goal scoring and goaltending. They shot just 8.1 percent and had a team save percentage of .902, numbers that ranked near the bottom of the league in the 19th and 23rd percentile, respectively.
The Oilers were dominant in terms of controlling the shot attempt share, scoring chance share and high-danger scoring chance share, respectively, with them ranking in the 90th, 90th and 100th percentiles.
When accounting for how the Oilers rank in terms of shot attempt share, goal share, expected goal share, scoring chance share, high-danger scoring chance share as well as shooting and save percentages, they ranked in the 74th percentile, or as the ninth best team. Removing their shooting and save percentages, they jump to the 87th percentile, where they’d tie with the Los Angeles Kings for fourth overall.

On the road

The Oilers had the sixth best record in the league at home going 23-16-2 for a .585 points percentage where, at five-on-five, they were outscored 85-81. That 48.3 percent goal share put them in the 61st percentile for away team goal shares this season. Similarly to at home, the Oilers were strong at controlling play, with a 52.5 percent expected goal share ranking fifth among teams on the road, in the 87th percentile. So what gives?
Well similarly to their issues at home, poor goal scoring and goaltending were major issues. They shot 7.9 percent and had a .904 save percentage, ranking in the 23rd and 39th percentiles, respectively. It’s worth noting that both rankings were slightly above their home numbers, yet still below league average for both marks.
The Oilers, again, were dominant in terms of controlling the shot attempt share, scoring chance share and high-danger scoring chance share, respectively, with them ranking in the 90th, 84th and 90th percentiles.
Accounting for all the same metrics as above, they rank in the 84th percentile on the road, or as the sixth best team. But if you take away the shooting and save percentage percentiles, they rank in the 97th percentile, as the second best team behind only the Los Angeles Kings.

Making sense of it

Playing on the road is far different from playing at home in the NHL and teams across the league are worst away from their own rink than in it.
In fact, teams on average have a .117 worse points percentage away than at home, and control the goal share at a 4.4 percent worse. The Oilers, however, had a 0.061 points percentage worse on the road than at home, and just a 1.5 percent worse goal share. Believe it or not, areas where the Oilers are stronger on the road than at home is in their shooting and save percentages, seeing increases well above the league average differentials.
So is Knoblauch right? Partially. Comparing their own numbers at home vs. on the road, the Oilers aren’t better — although the numbers are close. But when you look at how the Oilers fare at home vs. the road compared to the rest of the league? Yeah, the Oilers are better.
Is that enough for them to take down the Kings for a fourth straight year, who as mentioned above are in lockstep with the Oilers in terms of their metrics on the road and at home?
Time will tell.

Zach Laing is Oilersnation’s associate editor, senior columnist, and The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter, currently known as X, at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach.laing@bettercollective.com.

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