Déjà vu all over again.

Around this time last year, I declared two things in an article at Oilersnation.

The first was that I was going to do regular articles previewing the Edmonton Oilers’ playoff series with a focus on the tactics that would be deployed.

The second thing I declared once it was determined who the Oilers would play in the first round was, “We start with who is fast becoming a serious rival: the Los Angeles Kings.”

There is no question heading into the fourth time these two teams have met in the playoffs, the animosity between the two teams is palpable. Whether it is Philip Danault calling the Oilers lineup from a late regular season game a “B squad” who was intent on hurting Kings players to Warren Foegele telling Kings media that he hates Edmonton, there is no question this is the most intense rivalry for the Edmonton Oilers. It makes for great hockey.

What that style of hockey looks like is the purpose of this article. Below is a preview of what the Oilers and Kings series will look like tactically, mostly at 5v5. Why 5v5? It is the most dominant state of play in each game. 5v5 play is almost always about 80 percent of a game, with more games trending towards 90 percent. While power plays or penalty kills can have an outsized impact in spots of a series, 5v5 will almost always rule the day and crown a victor.

So, without further ado, let’s dive into the first series preview article focused on the 5v5 tactics of another Oilers-Kings playoff match-up with some commentary on a few players of note who may make the difference and a little bit on specialty teams.

In the past, I have been critical of the Los Angeles playing style. Not that it hadn’t yielded good results. For me, the team had too much speed and too much skill to play the way they did. The Kings traditionally played a very passive game focused on limiting chances against and, quite frankly, limiting their own chances for by playing so conservatively.

Well, that has changed in the first full season under Jim Hiller. Last season, the Kings finished 3rd in shots for at 5v5, but 15th in high danger chances for and 21st in goals for at 5v5. This data is all courtesy of Natural Stat Trick. This year, the team was 10th in shots for, 5th in high danger chances and 8th in goals for.

These are noticeable improvements over the prior year. Has it impacted their defensive capabilities from the prior season? Not the slightest. In shots against, high danger chances against and goals against at 5v5, the Kings were second in all three categories. So what changed? Was it tactics? Was it players? Well, it was both, but let’s start with the tactics in all three zones.

The tactic that has changed the least is the Kings’ offensive zone forecheck. The Kings utilize a standard 1-2-2 forecheck in the offensive zone same as the Oilers. The principle is to have F1 drive the puck carrier in one direction,n allowing F2 to react to that direction and either engage the puck carrier or whomever the puck carrier distributes the puck to. F3 for the Kings stays nice and high in the middle of the ice, waiting to react to the play. If the puck is reversed, F3 can become the new F,2 challenging the puck or, in this case, F3 can become part of the offensive attack on a turnover.

This tactic will be very familiar to the Oilers, given the Kings have not changed, and it is the system the Oilers run. To counter this forecheck, the Oilers need to focus on making quick plays and trying to get out through the middle of the ice before the F2 and F3 can set up on their assignments. There is a heavy reliance on getting the defenceman involved in this type of play. Here, the defender simply beats all three Kings players using his feet.

You could certainly see Jake Walman and Darnell Nurse beating the forecheck this way as well as Kulak on occasion. Evan Bouchard could do so, but he is far more prone to pass the puck out of the check.

Even passing to beat this tactic will involve the defenceman. Watch this play by Edmonton against Calgary a few weeks ago, and pay particular attention to Darnell Nurse.

Once the Oilers have control of the puck in their zone, Nurse springs up the weak side available to support the play. This can be crucial to creating offence out of the 1-2-2 attack. Remember, the other team is sinking two and often three players lower in the zone. If the Oilers can escape that with a defenceman coming off the weakside, it likely leads to an odd-man break. Also, look at the chaos the play causes in the offensive zone when a defenceman is up in the play. It is hard to sort out defensive responsibilities quickly off the rush, and it is even harder when the team adds a player to the attack who is usually not there.

The top five defencemen on the Oilers, plus Troy Stecher, all do this incredibly well. This should be a focus for the Oilers against Los Angeles. The Kings can be challenged here and need to be.

This is the biggest change in the Los Angeles Kings’ tactical playbook. In prior seasons, the Kings ran a 1-3-1 neutral zone forecheck very effectively.

The simple principle was to force the opponent to come up out of the zone into a highly congested area with limited options to pass or skate. F1 starts by moving the puck carrier to the side where D1 resides. D1 immediately jumps up to attack the puck. F2 remains in the middle to protect seam passes. F3 turns and heads back into the zone to assist D2 in winning possession or acting as an outlet. D2 is the safety valve who is tasked with puck retrieval. Take a look at this clip.

F1 moves the Oilers to the strong side where D1 resides. The pressure on the puck carrier forces a dump-in. Immediately, all of the Kings head back to retrieve the puck, with D1, F2 and F3 overwhelming the Oilers’ forecheck. Voila, the puck sneaks up the boards, and the Kings exit the zone. You can see how this would be incredibly frustrating for opponents since there is no pressure up ice. Instead, the entire neutral zone is clogged up, and the attacking team is forced to give up the puck.

However, the Kings have moved away from that system, and I think that is very smart.

Before last year’s series,s I wrote: “Personally, I am not convinced this is the best system for this group. There is a great deal of speed and skill on this team that would allow for a 1-2-2. In addition, the Oilers seemed to have figured out how to pace their play against it this season and in last year’s playoffs.”

The Kings clearly recognized this and made a change to a much more standard 1-2-2 neutral zone forecheck. The goal of the 1-2-2 neutral zone forecheck is to force a dump-in that can be retrieved or a neutral zone turnover that can lead to an attack. This is a key change in philosophy. Here is a good example of the 1-2-2 by the Kings.

You’ll note that F2 and F3 are a little further up the ice, so it is more aggressive. Trying to force plays before center ice. The key is once the attacking team decides which side to attack from, D2 or the weakside defender surfs over to retrieve a puck behind D1, and F3 surfs down to fill into the D2 spot and provide support should the puck get low into the zone. When this works well, D1 has the confidence to stand up at his blueline and attack the puck carrier to try and create a transition play.

This is a very standard, but very well-executed play. Here is another one that achieves the basic result of the tactic, which is to get the puck off the attacking team’s stick. I’m highlighting this one because of Darcy Kuemper, as he can handle the puck well. The Oilers will have lots of frustration if they try this play a lot because Kuemper gets the puck out.

Now that doesn’t mean the Oilers can’t have some success here. After all, the high skill the Oilers run through their top nine will allow them chances to break this down.

If the puck is dumped into the corner where the goalie cannot retrieve it, the Kings definitely can struggle to break the puck out. Here is an example against the Leafs. The first thing to note is how many Kings go down into the corner. This is by design to overwhelm the play, but look at the space it leaves net front. In this case, the Leafs don’t take advantage of that. Instead, they continue to work the walls and have a man slide into a nice F3 position for a chance on net.

The Kings’ defence group is not a great passing group on the whole. So when they get into tight quarters, the goal is to have the forwards come down for two reasons. Help with puck retrieval, but also help with puck transition by either being available to a short pass or carrying the puck themselves. This is an area the Oilers need to attack. Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Trent Frederic and Victor Arvidsson all have the ability to put pressure on the Kings’ defenders down low.

Another way to counter this 1-2-2 neutral zone is to simply not allow it to set up. Watch this great play. Here the Colorado forwards backtrack, allowing for the Colorado defenceman to stand up and turn the puck over. Watch how quickly the play is turned back up the ice on the attack. Also, note that weak side activation by the defenceman.

To me, the whole tactical battle of this series will be fought in the neutral zone. The Kings use their new look to create rush chances. The Oilers have a noticeable weakness against rush chances against. If the Kings can turn the puck over quickly and the Oilers forward group, in particular, cannot recover, there will be trouble for the Oilers.

The Kings’ defensive zone has not changed a lot in a season. Indeed, take a look at this clip from last year against the Oilers as a reference point.

The Kings employ a pretty simple defensive zone when the puck is down low. They have D1 on the puck. D2 net-front on the strong side and F1 playing off D1 covering the middle of the ice. F2 and F3 hold their positions on a line marking the opposition defensemen. When the puck is available or in a battle, the Kings will try and out-man the other team and create a turnover. Veteran Oiler fans would call this the swarm.  When the puck comes up top, the Kings mark the points hard, but the low forward stays low, playing the middle of the ice, looking to take a shot and pass lanes away.

Now, here are a couple of clips from this season. Again, you can see this almost swarm-like concept down low, essentially outmanning the other team 4v3 or 5v3.

No question if the Oilers get into these situations, they will simply have to out-battle the Kings low. The way to counter that is to have all three forwards into the battle with the strong side defenceman also moving down to the harsh marks to look for any loose pucks that come up the wall.

When the Oilers win the battle, one of the things I would love to see is a much more concerted effort on a 2-3 offensive zone attack. This was a play from last year’s playoffs that I would love to see a lot of against the Kings.

This play led to a goal from the point, but most often, what it will lead to is the Oilers having a lot of space to operate in the slot without many defenders. It will also allow their skill players to attack downhill towards the net against defenders who are standing still.

While the article is focused on the Kings, I would be remiss not to discuss the Oilers’ tactics a little bit. The reason for this is that the Oilers are certainly going to give up some opportunities. Whether these opportunities turn into high-danger chances is difficult to say, but the Oilers will give up chances nonetheless.

The Oilers also run a similar 1-2-2 style of forecheck as the Kings do. The only modest change is that the Oilers F3 tends to play “narrow” or more into the middle of the ice instead of wide. Where the Oilers’ offensive zone forecheck has a tendency to break down is when F3 fails to stay over the top and in the middle of the ice. Here is a perfect example of what can happen.

This cannot happen against the Kings. The Kings are simply too aggressive on the counterattack and it will lead to many odd-man rushes against. The Oilers are not always disciplined in their structure and it can lead to these types of counters. The Kings have enough speed and skill to take advantage of these breakdowns. This needs to be a point of emphasis.

Much like the Kings, the Oilers run a 1-2-2 neutral zone forecheck.

As noted, the basic premise of the 1-2-2 in the neutral zone is to force a turnover higher up the ice so that your team can attack more quickly. F1 is to drive the play to one side of the ice. F2 is then to step up on the potential outlet pass, and F3 moves into the middle to defend that area of the ice. D1 also steps up hard on the strong side to congest the passing and skating options. D2 remains as the safety valve should the opponent break the forecheck. In this case, the pass gets to the wide side of the neutral zone, and Noah Philp playing the F2, makes a beeline to cover the D1, who steps up hard to turn the puck over. Ty Emberson does this successfully.

Here is another excellent example of the Oilers neutral zone play forcing a turnover.

Now, the risk with this type of tactic is that it can lead to odd-man rushes against if the structure is not disciplined. The Oilers do not always have the best discipline in their neutral zone. Indeed, it is likely their biggest weakness at 5v5. One stat to track will be the odd-man rushes the Kings get in the series. If the numbers are suppressed, the Oilers are likely doing a very good job at 5v5 in the neutral zone. The key here will be the forwards’ play in backtracking hard if the neutral zone if broken. If they do that, it will allow the defence group to stand up at the blueline and will also give them support in the zone.

The Oilers have run mostly a zone style of defence. It depends a little on where the puck is in the zone. If it is low, the Oilers set up in a box that is compressed below circles with one player on the puck. When the puck goes up higher, the forwards press more while the low forward stays inside the middle of the box, marking the third player for the opposition. If he goes high, the centre follows. If he stays low, the centre stays low.

The key in this set-up is the low forward, who is mostly the centre. The player has to be incredibly disciplined.  The whole system is designed to elicit shots from a distance and from poor lanes with lots of congestion. Its secondary goal is to attack loose or 50/50 pucks on the wall to create turnovers. Here is a very basic example.

As you can see, it is a very passive type of defending. It looks for loose pucks on the wall but will settle for outside shots that are either gathered by their goalie or directed into spots where the Oilers can recover. The net front area is also incredibly hard for teams to navigate now because the Oilers collapse hard to the net front on shots or down-low plays. This should lead to improvement on 5v5 goals against in-zone plays.

I think outside of tactics, this series will come down to two sets of players. The centres and the goaltenders. There is zero question that the Kings have the better starting goaltending in this series. Darcy Kuemper has been a wall for the team this year. He was third in goals saved above average, while Stuart Skinner was 26th for goalies with over 2000 minutes of playing time. If Stuart Skinner cannot keep pace with Keumper, the Edmonton Oilers will have trouble winning this series.

The other group is the centres. The Los Angeles Kings are the most threatening team in terms of their centre depth, matching the Oilers. Kopitar, Danault and Byfield are 1-2-3. The emergence of Quinton Byfield as a centre this year has been remarkable.

Make no mistake, this team can compete with McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins. Whether this group can blunt the centre play from the Oilers is yet to be determined, but of all the match-ups in the Western Conference, the Kings present the biggest challenge. The Oilers centres will need to be incredibly strong in all three zones and in all tactical situations.

Also, there is a chance the Oilers’ forward group as a whole could be a challenge for the Kings. If the team can get one or both of Trent Frederic and Evander Kane back early in the series, the depth of the group would be formidable. This could be countered by the loss of Mattias Ekholm and Troy Stecher, which weakens the Oilers’ defence group fairly significantly.

I am not convinced this will be much of a deciding factor in this series. The overall penalty rate in the NHL was down in this regular season. In addition, the playoffs usually see a modest decline in calls as well, although not like some think. In terms of penalty kill, the Oilers are very good at suppressing chances. They were second in the league this year in terms of expected goals against. The problem was that they ended up 12th in actual goals against. Goaltending was the culprit. The Kings were surprisingly good, but not great on the penalty kill. The team was 13th in expected goals against and 10th in actual goals against.

The Oilers’ power play was down this season, but the talent element is too hard to ignore. The more intriguing part is the Los Angeles Kings. The Kings struggled on the powerplay this year and there is a limit of talent on the first powerplay. Late in the season, the team went to a very novel five-forward powerplay. The team certainly had more success, but I wonder whether Coach Hiller would be willing to put out this formation against the Oilers in the playoffs.

The Oilers are not particularly dangerous on the penalty kill at scoring with their main group. Although the last playoffs were an exception. Should the Kings decide to deploy this formation, I wonder whether Draisaitl and McDavid see penalty kill time and see it early in the penalty just to test the Kings’ deployment.

That is all for the tactical preview of the Oilers versus the Kings. I hope you enjoyed it. As always, please send feedback here or to @bcurlock on the Elon Musk machine.

I’ll be back after Game 1 with a tactical breakdown of the key points in the game. See you then.