There are plenty of lessons the Edmonton Oilers can take from Thursday’s opponent, the Tampa Bay Lightning, because their path from frustration to dominance is a blueprint that should hit close to home.

Like most expansion teams, the Lightning spent years stumbling around the basement before finding their footing. By the mid-2000s, they had built a consistent playoff team and eventually beat the Calgary Flames in the 2004 Stanley Cup Final with Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis leading the way.

That era eventually faded, and after a rough 31-42-9 season in 2007-08, Tampa drafted Steven Stamkos first overall. What followed was not instant success. Outside of a fluke run to the 2011 Eastern Conference Final, they missed the playoffs four times in five seasons and were swept in the first round in 2014.

It was not until the 2014-15 season that the version of the Lightning that we know now truly emerged. They ripped through Detroit, Montreal, and New York to reach the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 2004, losing to the Blackhawks. In 2016, they reached the Eastern Conference Final again, pushing Pittsburgh to seven games.

Then came 2016-17. Stamkos suffered a major injury in November, the season went sideways, and the team missed the playoffs by a single point. Ben Bishop was traded for next to nothing to clear the crease for Andrei Vasilevskiy. It was disappointing, frustrating, and felt like a massive step backwards.

Sound familiar?

The Oilers are living a similar story right now. Through 22 games, they sit at 9-9-4 with only four regulation wins. That is fewer than the Calgary Flames. The underlying numbers, which carried them through early slumps the last two seasons, are nowhere near as strong. In 2023-24 and 2024-25, Edmonton dominated expected goals and high-danger chances. This year, they have not.

As optimistic as I try to be, it is hard to see the Oilers digging themselves fully out of this and re-establishing themselves as contenders the way they were the previous two seasons. The good news? Tampa Bay shows that this does not have to be the beginning of a long decline. Missing the playoffs does not have to signal disaster if the organization responds the right way.

After missing the 2017 postseason, the Lightning roared back. They reached Game 7 of the 2018 Eastern Conference Final against Washington. In 2018-19, they put up a ridiculous 62-16-4 record, tied for the most wins in NHL history and the fifth-highest point total ever. They were then hilariously swept by Columbus.

But here is the part Oilers fans should pay attention to. Tampa did not panic, did not tear everything down, and did not lose faith in their core. They stayed the course, made smart additions, kept developing their depth, and trusted their elite talent. The result was back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021 and another trip to the Final in 2022.

The last three years have been first-round exits, but the Lightning remain a consistent, battle-tested playoff team capable of winning a round or two every year. Their elite players remain elite. Their system remains strong. Their expectations remain high.

If the Oilers see their season spiral down the drain and they miss the playoffs in 2026, the Lightning model shows that it does not have to be the end of their Cup window. It can be the reset point. The moment where things get recalibrated, not dismantled. The moment where disappointment becomes fuel.

Tampa turned one step back into three steps forward. If Edmonton handles this season the right way, they can do the same.