Good morning, everyone, and a happy Monday to you all. As always, I’ve got a fresh mailbag ready to go after taking your questions and sending them to the crew for their take on whatever’s on your mind. This week, we’re discussing the Connor McDavid contract noise, expectations for rookie Oilers, Trent Frederic’s first full year in Edmonton, and more. If you’ve got a question you’d like to ask, email it to me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk, and I’ll get to you as soon as I can.

Of course. The Oilers had contact with his agent over the summer, but they never had serious discussions as they wanted to give McDavid some time off. He had a short summer combined with weddings for his brother and Leon Draisaitl. I don’t think much has changed. I never thought a deal would happen until September, so I’m not surprised nothing has happened yet. I still lean towards a four-year deal being what he signs for.

Yes. We are 1000% reading too much into every word that leaves his mouth. And, unfortunately, I don’t see the noise quieting down until his name is on the dotted line.

Offensively I think realistic production would be 15-18 goals and 32-40 points. But he will bring physicality and energy as well. He’s a third line player who could moonlight in the top six at times.

I’m expecting 15-20 goals and five+ fights. Mostly, I’m just excited to see what he can do with that ankle finally healed up and a summer of training and getting to know the organization under his belt.

I’m not sure I see a better stylistic fit between Draisaitl and McDavid. Both are great passers. Mangiapane’s best year was with Mikael Backlund. He isn’t very similar to McDavid or Draisaitl. I see him starting on RW with Draisaitl as Hyman is best with McDavid.

I think he’s going to be pumped to play with any of McDavid, Draisaitl, or Nugent-Hopkins. I’d like to see him on Draisaitl’s wing because he’s got a knack for finding the middle of the ice and Leon is an incredible passer on the forehand and backhand.

Yes. I’m not sold Howard will be a regular in the NHL. It is his first pro season. Over 75% of NHL players spend some time in the AHL. I think Savoie will be a regular to start the season and likely starts on the third line. I’d have low offensive expectations of both, and if they overachieve then it is a bonus, rather than projecting them to score 20 as rookies, and if they don’t, then being mad.

Over the past four seasons only four rookies have scored 20+ goals at EV. Michael Bunting, Tanner Jeannot and Wyatt Johnston (21) and Matt Beniers (20). They all played over 15:29/game. The Oilers only had four forwards who averaged over 15 minutes/game last year in McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH and Hyman.

I used EV, because I don’t see either getting a lot of PP time. But even when you look at total goals, we’ve seen 16 rookies scored 20+ goals the past four seasons and only one averaged less than 15:29/game and that was Cutter Gauthier at 14:09.

I think many need to recalibrate their offensive expectations for Howard and Savoie. I hope, for their sake, one or both surprise and produce a lot, but history tells me it is unlikely. And that is totally fine. The Oilers are a legitimate Cup contender and they don’t need a rookie to carry them. If one has a surprise season that is a bonus, but shouldn’t be looked as an expectation.

I’m worried about it a little bit, tbh. I think Savoie will be solid — there will be ups and downs but he’s going to be good. Howard is getting a lot of hype and hasn’t played a pro game yet, and that’s what makes me nervous. Obviously, I hope he comes in and blows the doors off, but I’m not necessarily expecting that to happen either.

Anaheim will be better, but I’m not sure if their blueline is good enough to make the playoffs. Calgary will have fewer than 96 points like they had last year. I don’t see them cratering, but I don’t think they will be in the playoff hunt until the final day of the season like last year.

I think LA misses the playoffs. How’s that for a hot take?

Star Mechanical is one of Edmonton’s biggest locally owned and operated plumbing and heating businesses. They have been working within the community for over 20 years, and many of the homes built in Edmonton over the last two decades have had their plumbing and heating systems installed by Star Mechanical.  Visit them at starmechanical.ca to schedule an appointment and let them help keep your home running smoothly.