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Monday Musings: Oilers bonus overages
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Jason Gregor
Apr 4, 2016, 15:59 EDTUpdated:
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The final week of the NHL season has some interesting story lines to follow.
Three division titles are still up for grabs Dallas leads the Blues by two points, but the Blues have a game in hand. Florida leads Tampa Bay by two points and each have four games remaining, while the Ducks lead the Kings by a single point and each team has four games to play.
The Red Wings (91 points) and Boston (90) are battling for third place in the Atlantic division, but they are also battling Philadelphia (91) for the final wildcard spot. The Red Wings’ 25-year playoff streak is on the line, and likely so is Claude Julien’s job as head coach of the Bruins.
Playoff races are fun, but for the first time since 1970, Canadian fans won’t have a team in the dance.
Sadly, fans of the seven Canadian teams will only be watching the race for lottery percentage as the Oilers and Leafs battle for 29th and 30th. The Flames (72), Jets (72) and Canucks (71, with game in hand) will jockey for 27th to 25th place, while the Senators and Canadiens will finish anywhere from 24th to as high as 19th.
It will not be a riveting week for Oilers fans, but there are some other numbers worth looking at.
Some teams could be hurt by players reaching their individual bonuses this week.
  • The Chicago Blackhawks are on pace to have just under $160,000 in cap space, but Artemi Panarin could max out his bonuses at $2.775 million. His first bonus was $200,000 for playing ten games. Smart negotiation by his agent, and likely a reason why he signed with the Hawks.
    He will max out at $850,000 in “Individual A bonuses”, and receive $212,500 for reaching each of the following:
    20 goals
    35 assists
    60 points
    A 0.73 points per game average.
    He also reached being a top-six forward in TOI/game and will likely make the all-rookie team.
    He could garner a cool $1.725 million bonus if he finishes top-ten in goals, assists, points or points-per-game. He is currently 12th in points, one behind 10th place Tyler Seguin and Blake Wheeler. If he finishes top-ten in scoring the Hawks will start next year with a cap penalty over $2 million.
  • Now that Connor McDavid has played 42 games he is eligible for bonuses. If he finishes top-ten in points-per-game — he is currently tied for 3rd at 1.05 PPG — he receives $2 million. He would have to go pointless in both games and need seven other players to have a great final week. I’d say he’s a lock to reach this.
    He can also receive a maximum of $850,000 in “Individual A bonuses.” He will receive $212,500 for obtaining any of the following parameters, but can max out at four.
    Top-six among Oilers forwards in TOI/game. He has achieved this.
    A 0.73 PPG. He has this.
    Top-three in Oilers forwards in +/-. He is second behind Hendricks. He would need a bad week, and have Hall and Draisaitl gain two and three pluses.
    He seems destined to achieve those three, and could gain a fourth with any of the following:
    20 goals. He needs five in two games.
    35 assists. He needs five in two games.
    60 points. He won’t reach.
    Named to the NHL all-rookie team. This seems like a lock.
    So McDavid will max out his bonuses at $2.85 million. The Oilers are on pace to finish the season with about $3.4 million in cap space. McDavid’s bonuses alone won’t put them over the cap, but Leon Draisailt, Darnell Nurse and Iiro Pakarinen could.
  • Nurse can max out at $850,000 in bonuses and is on pace to reach a few of the $212,500 targets. Top-four in TOI/game among D-men.
    Second in blocked shots. He is three ahead of Mark Fayne.
    So he could reach $425,000.
  • Draisaitl won’t reach any of his “Individual B bonuses” and cash in $1.625 million, but he will achieve some of the $212,500 “A bonuses.” Again he can max out at four.
    Top-six among Oilers forwards in TOI/game. He has achieved this.
    Top-three in Oilers forwards in +/-. He is third and one ahead of Taylor Hall.
    20 goals. He needs two in two games.
    35 assists. He needs three in two games.
    A 0.73 points per game average. He is currently at .714. If he tallies three points in the final two games he finishes with 0.736. Or if he only plays one game, but scores two points, he will also reach .73.
    He is guaranteed $212,500 and could reach anywhere from $425,000 to $850,000.
  • Iiro Pakarinen has reached his GP bonus and will snare $61,875. He received $20,625 for 40 GP, then another $20,625 for 50 GP and $20,625 for 60 GP.
  • Right now the Oilers sit at $3,336,875 in bonuses, and depending on how Nurse and Draisaitl play this week they could reach $4.186 million in overages. If Draisaitl maxes out at four and Nurse reaches his second one, the Oilers will have approximately $700,000 counting against the cap next year. It isn’t a huge number, but it is something to monitor this week.
  • Oscar Klefbom won’t play again this year, but McLellan has the most positive report on his status since he contracted the staph infection. “When he comes to camp next season he should be fine.” That must be a huge relief for the coach, the organization and, I’m guessing, for the fans.
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