Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he breaks down and handicaps Monday’s Stanley Cup Final rematch between the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers.

Oilers vs. Panthers Odds

  • Florida Panthers Moneyline: -125
  • Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: +105
  • Puck Line: Panthers +1.5 (-225), Oilers -1.5 (+185)
  • Game Total: 6 (Over -110, Under -110)
Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.

Handicapping the Panthers (18-13 SU, 13-18 ATS, 18-13 O/U)

Florida started out 11-4 straight up, capped by a seven-game win streak, but the Panthers then lost six of their next seven games. They appeared to get back on track with six wins in their next seven outings but have since suffered two consecutive shutout losses: 4-0 in Vancouver and 3-0 in Calgary. Monday’s game will mark the fourth game of Florida’s five-game road trip, which concludes in Minnesota on Wednesday. The Panthers are 9-6-1 on the road this season but have dropped five of their last eight away from home.
Aleksander Barkov missed Saturday’s game against the Flames due to illness. The Panthers’ captain played just under 20 minutes in last Thursday’s loss to the Canucks, recording four shots on goal. The 29-year-old has appeared in only 22 of Florida’s 31 games but still ranks third on the team in scoring with nine goals and 20 assists. From a handicapping perspective, it’s probably best to err on the side of caution and assume Barkov will play on Monday.
With Barkov, the Panthers match up well against the Oilers. He’s a crucial part of the team’s seventh-ranked power play and 10th-ranked penalty kill. Florida likely wouldn’t rank as a top-five team in five-on-five expected goals and shot attempt percentage without Barkov’s effectiveness against the opposition’s top players. At full strength, the Panthers stack up well against the Oilers.
Edmonton has Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl; Florida has Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk. The Oilers have Zach Hyman, while the Panthers counter with Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe. On defense, Florida might have the edge. Over the last month, the Panthers rank second in five-on-five shot attempts and expected goals against, while Edmonton sits 12th and 21st in those categories, respectively. That said, Florida’s goaltending hasn’t been giving them a lift like Edmonton’s has.

Handicapping the Oilers (18-12 SU, 12-18 ATS, 13-16-1 O/U)

Edmonton extended its win streak to five games with a dominant 6-3 win over the Vegas Golden Knights at Rogers Place on Saturday. Now, they’ll look to exorcise another demon by defeating the Panthers. Florida has won six of its last 10 games against Edmonton, including playoffs, though the two teams have split their six regular-season meetings since the start of the 2021-22 season.
The Oilers are in better form right now, having won 12 of 17 games since McDavid returned from his three-game absence. They’ve also covered the puck line eight times during that stretch, after doing so only four times in their first 14 games. Since McDavid’s return against Vegas, Edmonton has posted the league’s third-best shot differential and fifth-best expected goals differential. Additionally, the Oilers rank fourth on the penalty kill and fifth on the power play over that span.
Since Nov. 6, only one team has scored more goals per 60 minutes than Edmonton. While Florida may have stronger underlying defensive metrics, the Oilers have been far more effective at preventing goals recently. Edmonton ranks third in goals against per 60 minutes over the last month, while Florida sits just outside the bottom-10. That has a lot to do with goaltending, as Stuart Skinner ranks eighth in goals saved above expected over his last eight outings, and Calvin Pickard has been solid, too, winning seven of his last nine starts.
Edmonton is finally living up to expectations, and as a result, oddsmakers have labeled the Oilers as clear favorites in this matchup. However, sharp money has been trickling in on the Panthers, likely in anticipation of Barkov’s return, which is why it’s wise to assume he will play. Edmonton’s moneyline odds currently sit at -135, but those odds will likely shorten if Barkov is confirmed in the lineup. If you bet on Edmonton now, you risk making an objectively bad wager, as there’s a good chance the odds will move against you. The Oilers’ moneyline odds have already shortened from -135 to -125 this morning.

Best Bet for Oilers vs. Panthers

While it’s tempting to go back to the well and bet on Leon Draisaitl to deliver another strong performance, there’s another Oilers forward whose player prop catches my attention.

Zach Hyman Anytime Goal (+190) at Sports Interaction

Since returning from injury, Hyman has been on fire, scoring five goals in five games. He has found the back of the net in four of those five games and now has eight goals in his last 15 outings, aligning with the 43.5-goal pace the betting market projected for him this season. That said, during this recent run, Hyman looks more like the player he was last season. He was priced at +115 to score an anytime goal the last time the Panthers visited Rogers Place. Given Hyman’s recent resurgence, I’ll take my chances with him scoring a goal at +190 odds. However, while Sports Interaction is offering competitive odds, bettors should still shop around for the best price. Let’s just hope that Sergei Bobrovsky doesn’t morph into ‘Playoff Bob’ on Monday.