Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he breaks down and handicaps Thursday’s matchup between the Boston Bruins and Edmonton Oilers.

Bruins vs. Oilers Odds

  • Boston Bruins Moneyline: +150
  • Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -185
  • Puck Line: Bruins +1.5 (-165), Oilers -1.5 (+140)
  • Game Total: 6 (Over -110, Under -110)
Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.

Handicapping the Bruins (17-16 SU, 8-25 ATS, 17-15-1 O/U)

With a 17-13-3 record, the Boston Bruins are clinging to third place in the Atlantic Division, with the Tampa Bay Lightning and Ottawa Senators close behind and holding games in hand. Thursday’s game wraps up Boston’s Western Conference road trip, which started with blowout losses to the Winnipeg Jets (8-1) and Seattle Kraken (5-1) before the Bruins bounced back to beat the Vancouver Canucks (5-1) and Calgary Flames (4-3 in overtime).
Boston is 9-4 under interim head coach Joe Sacco but hasn’t faced many playoff-caliber teams—or anyone as dangerous as the Oilers. Of the teams they’ve played since the coaching change, only Utah ranks in the top half of the league in five-on-five expected goal share, according to Evolving Hockey. Thursday’s game will be a good test to see where the team stands.
The Bruins rank 13th in five-on-five expected goal percentage, defending well enough to sit in the top 10 in expected goals against per 60 minutes but struggling offensively. They rank 22nd in expected goals and 25th in shot attempts per 60 at five-on-five, with only six teams scoring fewer five-on-five goals. While Boston ranks second in expected goals percentage across all situations under Sacco, they still haven’t faced stiff competition.
The biggest issue has been goaltending. According to Evolving Hockey, Jeremy Swayman ranks last in goals saved above expected this season and has been the worst goaltender by that metric over the past month. By my count, he’s had just three solid starts since Sacco took over.

Handicapping the Oilers (18-13 SU, 12-19 ATS, 14-16-1 O/U)

Edmonton’s five-game win streak ended in a wild 6-5 loss to the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers on Monday. The Oilers scored three unanswered goals in the second period but couldn’t close it out, allowing three in the final frame. Neither goaltender impressed, but as in the playoffs, Sergei Bobrovsky outperformed Stuart Skinner. Per Evolving Hockey, Skinner allowed -3.65 goals above expected, while Bobrovsky saved about one goal more than an average goaltender would have.
Thursday’s game should be a bit easier for Skinner. Florida is a top-five offensive team, while Boston isn’t. From a betting perspective, though, I can’t justify taking Edmonton at -185 odds. The Bruins remain a respectable opponent, and Swayman has the potential to deliver a strong performance, even if he hasn’t shown it this season. Still, the Oilers are big favorites for good reason. They’ve scored four or more goals in nine of their last 12 games, which spells trouble for the Bruins—who are 1-10 straight up when their opponent scores four or more goals.
Zach Hyman is expected to play Thursday despite taking an Evan Bouchard slap shot to the face on Monday. Hyman suffered a broken nose but avoided a concussion, and head coach Kris Knoblauch said he’ll likely suit up, albeit with extra protection. The 32-year-old has been on fire, scoring seven goals in six games since returning to the lineup. His +210 goal-scoring odds against Florida seemed ridiculous to many, but they’ve now adjusted to +170. Meanwhile, Viktor Arvidsson could also return to the lineup Thursday.
Whatever Knoblauch does with his lineup, though, he doesn’t have to worry about Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. McDavid has led the way, scoring 11 goals and 23 assists in 18 games since returning from injury, but Draisaitl’s 14 goals and 17 assists is just as impressive. As is the fact that he’s scored multiple points in eight of his last 10 games, including six in a row. Draisaitl has scored six goals in his last six games versus the Bruins, and three of those games were multi-point performances.

Best Bet for Bruins vs. Oilers

Boston’s weak schedule is probably a big reason that the Bruins rank higher than the Oilers in categories like even strength, expected goals and shot attempts over the last month, but what if it’s not? If Edmonton wasn’t such a public darling, there might be some value here, but there isn’t, so I’m taking a different approach.

Highest Scoring Game (Bruins vs. Oilers) +600 at Sports Interaction

Boston and Edmonton are 8-2 to the under in the last 10 meetings, but I value the current form of these teams more than historical trends. Both the Bruins and Oilers have been part of some high-scoring games recently. Eight of Boston’s last 10 games have featured at least six goals, as have 13 of Edmonton’s last 18 games. The baseline is where it needs to be, but more importantly, the ceiling is high enough for these two teams to light it up, much like they did last season when the Bruins visited. Therefore, this is a solid matchup to place a small wager on it being the highest-scoring game on Thursday.