Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Saturday’s matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers.
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Odds
- Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline: +142
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -157
- Puck Line: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-172), Oilers -1.5 (+151)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -101, Under -111)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Maple Leafs (30-21 SU, 26-25 ATS, 22-26-3 O/U)
The Maple Leafs kick off their four-game road trip in Edmonton on Saturday, looking to avoid their fourth straight loss. Toronto might get some help, as forwards John Tavares and Matthew Knies could return to the lineup, but while both players make an impact, the Maple Leafs are an underdog for good reason.
On the surface, Toronto has been doing alright, going 16-12 since the start of December, but according to Evolving Hockey, the Maple Leafs have been mediocre. Since Dec. 1, Toronto ranks 25th in expected goal share and 18th in shot attempt percentage, and the team has looked even worse so far in 2025.
Only nine teams have allowed more goals per 60 minutes than Toronto over the last month, and the Maple Leafs also rank 18th in goals per 60. That’s exactly where they grade out, both offensively and defensively, based on Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model.
Special teams have also been an issue. The Maple Leafs have been strong on the power play, converting on 25 percent of their opportunities over the last month, ranking 12th. However, they have the 11th-worst penalty kill since Dec. 1, with a success rate of just 74.2 percent. Prior to that, Toronto had killed off 81.5 percent of its penalties.
Captain Auston Matthews has been heating up, recording 15 goals and 10 assists in 22 games since Dec. 1. While he hasn’t scored in his last two outings, he has 10 goals in his last 13 games. Meanwhile, William Nylander has 14 goals and 12 assists in 28 games since the start of December.
From a betting perspective, Toronto has been an underdog 13 times and has won eight of those games. A bettor wagering one unit on each of those wins would be up approximately 4.3 units.
The Maple Leafs are 7-3 straight up in their last 10 meetings against Edmonton, but the Oilers have won the last two home games against Toronto.
Handicapping the Oilers (32-19 SU, 20-31 ATS, 21-29-1 O/U)
Edmonton concludes its six-game homestand on Saturday, looking to bounce back after blowing a 2-0 lead and losing to the Detroit Red Wings in a shootout. However, the Oilers may not be at full strength due to illness.
Mattias Ekholm has been dealing with an illness but managed to suit up against Detroit on Thursday. Kasperi Kapanen, however, was forced to miss the game, and now newly signed John Klingberg is also under the weather and could miss Saturday’s game as a result.
It’s unclear if the illness will further impact the roster, but with Toronto having players whose status is uncertain and Edmonton potentially dealing with a bug in the locker room, this game is a bit tougher to handicap.
Still, Edmonton should control play, given that they rank among the league’s top teams at even strength, while Toronto does not. The Oilers are the second-best team in Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model and rank third in shot attempt percentage.
Edmonton has better scoring rates than Toronto, both offensively and defensively, and also holds an edge on special teams. Since Dec. 1, the Oilers rank second on the power play (30.8 percent) and ninth on the penalty kill (84.2 percent).
The Oilers are 18-8-2 at home this season, but with an early start and a likely split crowd, it might not feel like much of a home game. Additionally, Edmonton is 18-9 as a home favorite, but that record hasn’t been profitable.
The Oilers have performed about as well as their odds implied they would, and on Saturday, they will be a bigger favorite than in any previous home game against the Maple Leafs since the 2020-21 season.
Best Bets for Maple Leafs vs. Oilers
Edmonton Oilers First Period Handicap -0.5 (+160) at Pinnacle
Edmonton has struggled with slow starts this season, but they bucked that trend with a strong opening against Detroit on Thursday. Meanwhile, Toronto has trailed after the first period 22 times this season, with only three teams faring worse in that regard. Given that, Edmonton’s first-period handicap odds (+160) look pretty appealing.
Connor McDavid Anytime Goal (+149) at Pinnacle
Saturday’s game is all about the stars, and none shine brighter than Connor McDavid, who enters the matchup on a six-game point streak. While he didn’t find the back of the net on Thursday, he was clearly hunting for a goal, recording five shots on seven attempts. The Oilers’ captain has scored six times in his last nine games and has been consistently firing the puck over his last 10. Though he’s only scored in one of his last six home games against Toronto, he has eight goals in 13 career games against the Maple Leafs at Rogers Place.
