Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Tuesday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Tampa Bay Lightning.
Oilers vs. Lightning Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -104
- Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline: -106
- Puck Line: Oilers +1.5 (-273), Lightning -1.5 (+232)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over +100, Under -115)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Oilers (34-23 SU, 20-37 ATS, 26-30-1 O/U)
The Oilers‘ five-game Eastern Conference road trip is off to a rough start. They lost 6-3 in Philadelphia after the break, then 7-3 to Washington. That brings their record as road favorites to 12-11 (52.2%), which isn’t good given their average implied odds of 61.7%.
Don’t get me wrong, the Oilers are clearly a top team. Edmonton ranks second in expected goals percentage, third in shot attempt percentage, and seventh in goal share at even strength, according to Evolving Hockey. Additionally, only four teams have scored more goals per 60 minutes than the Oilers in all situations.
However, the average fan and/or bettor doesn’t want to bet against them, and it shows in how sportsbooks price their games. From a betting perspective, Edmonton simply hasn’t been good enough on the road. The Oilers are often priced like the top team in the league, but their moneyline results haven’t matched.
The Oilers aren’t a favorite or an underdog heading into this game, as it is currently priced as more of a pick ‘em, but Edmonton is just 1-7 on the road against the Lightning in the Connor McDavid era, so maybe the team shouldn’t be getting so much credit given its current form.
However, despite Edmonton’s struggles, this will be Tampa Bay’s toughest test in a while. Over their last 11 games, the Lightning have faced the Montreal Canadiens, Chicago Blackhawks, Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, New York Islanders, Seattle Kraken, and Los Angeles Kings. Some decent clubs, like the Kings, but mostly mediocre or bad teams.
McDavid was on a heater before the break, but he has registered just one point (an assist on the power play) in his last three games, and the Oilers have been outscored 6-0 with him on the ice at even strength. Leon Draisaitl has been great, but McDavid has to get back up to speed immediately, or they risk losing four games in a row for the first time this season.
Handicapping the Lightning (32-24 SU, 29-27 ATS, 25-26-5 O/U)
While the Oilers look to avoid their fourth straight loss, the Lightning will aim for their sixth consecutive win. The Lightning are 19-7-2 at home this season and 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games. Tampa Bay has earned points in seven straight outings and owns the best record (8-1-1) since Jan. 7.
From a betting perspective, only one team has been more profitable as a home favorite year-to-date. A bettor who placed one unit on the Lightning to win each home game in which they were listed as the favorite would have a record of 17-6 for a profit of 3.92 units. However, Tampa Bay is just 6-10 as the underdog this season.
Goaltending continues to be a strength for the Lightning, as only six teams have allowed fewer goals per 60 minutes—an impressive feat considering they don’t have a solid backup goaltender. Andrei Vasilevskiy ranks eighth in save percentage and seventh in goals saved above expected, according to Evolving Hockey.
However, Tampa Bay also remains one of the league’s best offensive teams, as only two teams have scored more goals per 60 minutes this season. So, not only have the Lightning been better than Edmonton defensively, but they’ve also been better offensively—something not many teams can claim. The Lightning have scored four or more goals in each game during their recent win streak.
Tampa Bay is also still one of the best teams on special teams, ranking fifth on the power play and 10th on the penalty kill. While they don’t grade out quite as well as the Oilers at even strength, there isn’t much separating them from Edmonton. According to Evolving Hockey, the Lightning rank 10th in expected goals percentage, 11th in shot attempt percentage, and third in goal share.
They also have the star power to match Edmonton, with players like Nikita Kucherov, who is tied with David Pastrnak for the most points since Jan. 5, and Brayden Point, who is tied for fourth in goals with 31.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline (-106) at Pinnacle
If the Oilers were on top of their game, it might make sense to price this game the way sportsbooks are, but there have been some concerning signs dating back to before the 4 Nations Face-Off, and they’ve yet to clean them up. Tampa Bay is just as good on offense and defense, and they have much more stability in goal.
