Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Wednesday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Minnesota Wild.
Oilers vs. Wild Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: +195
- Minnesota Wild Moneyline: -221
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+114), Wild +1.5 (-129)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -107, Under -105)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Oilers (27-16 SU, 16-27 ATS, 18-24-1 O/U)
Since dropping their first two games following the holiday break, the Oilers have won six of seven. That’s a good sign heading into Wednesday, as they kick off a three-game road trip in Minnesota before returning home for a season-long six-game homestand.
Edmonton hasn’t had much success on the road against the Wild, but the Oilers ended a streak of six straight losses in Minnesota with a dominant 7-1 win on Dec. 12, tying the season series at one game apiece. Wednesday will serve as the rubber match, and given Edmonton’s current form and the Wild’s injury troubles, it’s more likely than not that the Oilers will win consecutive games in Minnesota for the first time in the Connor McDavid era. Edmonton is 4-9 straight up in road games against the Wild dating back to the start of the 2015-16 season.
According to Evolving Hockey, the Oilers controlled nearly 57 percent of the shot attempts and 60 percent of the expected goals at even strength during their last visit to the State of Hockey—and that wasn’t a one-off. Since that game, Edmonton has posted the best even-strength expected goals percentage in the league (58.6 percent). In nine of their last 14 games, the Oilers have also finished with an even-strength shot share of 58 percent or higher.
No team has generated more shots on goal per 60 minutes than the Oilers over the past month, and only four teams have scored more goals. During this stretch, the Oilers also rank 11th in goals against, with Stuart Skinner recording shutouts in two of his last three starts. This is part of a strong run in which he has held opponents to two or fewer goals in 12 of his last 17 appearances.
Handicapping the Wild (27-17 SU, 22-22 ATS, 19-23-2 O/U)
Minnesota managed to win the first meeting against Edmonton by a score of 5-3 on Nov. 21. The Wild controlled 70 percent of the expected goals in that game, marking Edmonton’s second-worst performance of the season by that metric. At the time, the Wild were playing their best hockey, ranking fourth in even-strength expected goals percentage.
However, since losing Kirill Kaprizov to injury on Dec. 23, the Wild rank 25th in expected goals at even strength, with only Anaheim, San Jose, and Chicago posting worse shot shares. Additionally, while the Wild had graded out as the best defensive team at even strength for much of the season, they slipped into the bottom 10 in goals against per 60 minutes over their last nine games, largely due to injuries on the blue line.
Jared Spurgeon hasn’t played since Dec. 31 and doesn’t appear close to returning. To make matters worse, the Wild lost both Jonas Brodin and Brock Faber to injury on Jan. 7. Faber could return as soon as Wednesday’s game against the Oilers, but Minnesota will still be without their top player and two of their top three defenders.
Only one team—the Blackhawks—has allowed more shots on goal per 60 minutes in all situations than Minnesota over the past nine games. The Wild do have a one-day rest advantage in this matchup, but while that counts for something, it’s unlikely they’ll gain much from it given their numerous key injuries, especially against arguably the best offensive team in the league.
The Wild have only allowed four or more goals in 13 out of 44 games this season, but they’ve given up 15 goals combined in their last four games.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Wild
Leon Draisaitl Over 1.5 Points (+121) at Pinnacle
Leon Draisaitl has recorded at least one point in 17 of his last 18 games and in 34 of 43 games overall this season, making him a consistent scoring threat. While he has only logged three multi-point performances over his last 11 games, he’s recorded two or more points in 22 games this season—an impressive 51 percent. Minnesota’s injuries, especially on defense, will likely make it difficult to contain the 29-year-old on Wednesday. Betting on Draisaitl to record over 1.5 points at +121 odds is a solid play.
