Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Thursday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche.
Oilers vs. Avalanche Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: +100
- Colorado Avalanche Moneyline: -110
- Puck Line: Oilers +1.5 (-239), Avalanche -1.5 (+206)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over +100, Under -112)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Oilers (28-16 SU, 17-27 ATS, 19-24-1 O/U)
Edmonton will be at a scheduling disadvantage after Wednesday’s 5-3 win over the Minnesota Wild, but head coach Kris Knoblauch’s decision to start Calvin Pickard in the first half of the back-to-back was a smart one, leaving Stuart Skinner well-rested. Skinner hasn’t played since Monday, when he earned a shutout win over the Los Angeles Kings.
The 26-year-old has posted a 14-4-2 record over his last 20 games after starting the season with just two wins in his first seven appearances. He has held opponents to two or fewer goals in 12 of his last 17 outings, including two shutouts in his last three starts. As a result, sharp money in the betting market seems to favor the Oilers over the Avalanche on Thursday.
Oddsmakers initially listed Colorado as a -125 moneyline favorite, but the odds shifted to -110 by Thursday morning, making this matchup a virtual coin flip. Edmonton’s perfect 3-0 record as road underdogs this season, combined with Colorado’s 11-8 record as home favorites, has likely influenced the market.
Edmonton also grades out as the fourth-best team in five-on-five expected goals percentage, compared to Colorado, which ranks 13th. While both teams are among the top 10 in five-on-five shot attempt percentage, not all shots are created equal. The Oilers rank second in expected goals and shots for per 60 minutes, giving them a significant edge over the Avalanche in quality opportunities.
Defensively, the two teams show similarities, but Colorado has been slightly better at preventing goals at even strength and on the penalty kill. However, no team has been more effective on the power play than Edmonton since mid-November.
Handicapping the Avalanche (27-18 SU, 17-28 ATS, 21-21-3 O/U)
The Avalanche are in the middle of a challenging five-game homestand, which began with a win over the New York Rangers on Tuesday. Thursday’s game marks the second meeting of the season between these teams, with Edmonton winning the first matchup 4-1 in Colorado on Nov. 30. The two clubs have split their last six regular-season meetings dating back to the start of the 2023-24 season. Colorado enters this game with a 13-8-1 home record but has won 11 of its last 15 games at Ball Arena after starting the season 2-5 at home.
Only six teams have scored more goals per 60 minutes than Colorado this season. According to Evolving Hockey, the Avalanche rank 10th in expected goals and shot attempts per 60. However, despite ranking sixth in five-on-five shot attempts, they rank 19th in five-on-five expected goals and 20th in goals per 60. The Avalanche have been average on the power play, ranking 17th, but they lead the league in empty-net goals this season.
This matchup features four of the league’s top-five scorers. However, Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon lead the league in empty-net points, with 13 and 12, respectively. Meanwhile, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are the top two even-strength point producers, compared to MacKinnon and Rantanen, who rank 13th and 30th, respectively, in even-strength points.
Defensively, Colorado remains one of the league’s best teams. The Avalanche rank seventh in five-on-five expected goals against and fifth in suppressing shots. However, they’ve been average on special teams, with the 17th-ranked penalty kill. Since acquiring goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood, Colorado has been much better at preventing goals. Only three teams have allowed fewer goals per 60 minutes in all situations since Blackwood’s first game on Dec. 14.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Avalanche
Regulation Time Draw (+326) at Pinnacle
Colorado has been involved in a lot of close games as of late, many of which have been tightly contested affairs. The Avalanche have only gone to overtime or a shootout six times this season, but three times in their last seven games. Edmonton hasn’t gone to extra time in its last nine games, but the Oilers went to overtime or a shootout 10 times in the first 35 games, and they are tied with Colorado and St. Louis for the most one-goal games this season.
