It’s do or die for Edmonton as the Oilers look to keep their Stanley Cup hopes alive with a win in Game 4. Florida can become the first team to complete a sweep in the Stanley Cup Final since 1998 with a win. This article breaks down the Oilers’ chances, from a betting perspective, using odds and trends.

Panthers vs. Edmonton Game 4 Odds

  • Florida Panthers Moneyline Odds: +100
  • Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -120
  • Puck Line Odds: Panthers +1.5 (-275), Oilers -1.5 (+220)
  • Game Total: 5.5 goals (over 100, under -120)

Stanley Cup Final Odds

Based on the odds, Edmonton is further away from winning the Stanley Cup than they were when the playoffs started. The Oilers entered the NHL playoffs at 8/1 odds, but they are now listed at 13/1. Florida’s Cup odds have improved to -3000 after entering the playoffs with the second-best odds (7/1) of winning the championship.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Game 4 of the Cup Final.

Handicapping the Oilers (13-7 SU, 7-13 ATS, 9-11 O/U)

Edmonton closed as a -140 moneyline favourite in Game 3 after opening at -125, but sportsbooks are offering the Oilers at -120 going into Game 4. In other words, sportsbooks are more than willing to take bets on the Oilers heading into Game 4, despite the strong support they received in Game 3.
The Oilers finally found their firepower, scoring three goals after scoring just one in the first two games, but their defensive game fell apart. Edmonton held the Panthers to just 10 high danger shots combined at 5-on-5 in Game 1 and Game 2, but they allowed Florida to generate eight in Game 3, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Don’t let the shot total (35-23) fool you, either, because a lot of that was driven by the fact that Edmonton was trailing, and had more power play time. The shots were 22-18 in favour of the Oilers when the Panthers took a 4-1 lead. The Oilers outshot Florida 28-23 at even strength, but they didn’t have a big edge in expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey.
The Panthers’ defensive structure and goaltending is so good that it seems like Edmonton will have to play the perfect game in order to defeat them once, let alone four times in a row. With goals being so hard to come by, injured players, and Stuart Skinner providing .868 goaltending, it’s hard to make a case for betting on Edmonton to win straight up.

Handicapping the Panthers(13-6 SU, 9-10 ATS, 7-12 O/U)

Florida has been the favourite in 17 out of 20 games this postseason, and it’s hard not to feel like the Panthers should be the favourite in Game 4. They’ve shut down stars Nikita Kucherov (0 goals in five games), David Pastrnak (0 goals in six games), and Mika Zibanejad (0 goals in six games), and now they’re doing it on a full scale against the Oilers.
For example, the Panthers can live with McDavid controlling the ice at 5-o-5 because they take away his options. Zach Hyman, who has made a living in front of the net, doesn’t have a single high-danger chance in the series. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has attempted just four shots at 5-on-5, according to Natural Stat Trick, and McDavid himself has only generated four such chances in the series.
McDavid, Hyman, Leon Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, and Evan Bouchard have all yet to score a goal in the Stanley Cup Final. Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, and Hyman haven’t even registered a single point. Meanwhile, stars like Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett are scoring big goals and making big plays for the Panthers. Carter Verhaeghe, Evan Rodrigues, Vladimir Tarasenko, three former Stanley Cup champions, have also made contributions in the series.
When you add in the fact that Sergei Bobrovsky has posted an ungodly .953 save percentage in the Cup Final, there’s just far too much to overcome here. Only four teams in NHL history have come back to win a series when trailing 0-3, and only one of those teams, the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs, was able to overcome an 0-3 series deficit in the Cup Final.

Team Betting Trends

  • Florida is 3-2 in games where they can eliminate an opponent this postseason. Edmonton has only faced elimination once this postseason. The Oilers won Game 7 versus the Vancouver Canucks.
  • The home team is 39-45 (.464) this postseason. The Oilers now have a 6-4 record as the home team in the playoffs, while the Panthers have gone 7-2 as the road team.
  • 51 out of 84 games have been decided by one goal in the 2024 NHL playoffs.
  • The total in Games 1-4 are 61-47-2 (55.45 percent) to the over over the past three postseasons, compared to 38-15-2 (69.1 percent) to the under in Games 5-7. Game 3 was the first to go over the total in the Stanley Cup Final.

Player Prop Betting Trends

  • Connor McDavid has registered five shots in five out of his last seven games and he’s registered at least five shots in two games versus the Panthers. McDavid has gone over 3.5 shots on goal in seven of his last 10 games.
  • After scoring eight goals in his first nine games this postseason, Leon Draisaitl has scored just two goals in his last 12 games. 
  • Sam Bennett leads the Panthers with five goals and nine points over the last 10 games. In fact, Bennett is tied for the team lead in goals (6) and points (11) in the 13 games since he returned from injury.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

  • No team has generated more shots against Florida than the Oilers have in two out of the three games in this series. Edmonton finished with 32 shots on goal in Game 1, and 35 in Game 3, but Sergei Bobrovsky was up to the challenge each time. Bobrovsky to make 30-plus saves, which is listed at +200 at Sports Interaction, is a player prop that’s worth some consideration.
  • Elsewhere, I might look to a player such as Gustav Forsling (45/1) or Mattias Ekholm (45/1) to score the first goal of the hockey game. Goals have come from unlikely sources in this series, including Ekholm. Forsling plays big minutes and ranks fifth in the series in individual expected goals per Natural Stat Trick.