One of the most highly anticipated Stanley Cup Finals in recent memory will finally get underway Wednesday evening when the Edmonton Oilers host the Florida Panthers at Rogers Place.

Each side enters this rematch after earning conference titles in very convincing fashion, and arguably both look to be even better this season than last. After opening as slight betting underdogs in the series, the Oilers are currently priced at -125 to win it all, and are slightly larger favourites in the series opener.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Oilers were able to get past at least two teams that were widely regarded as legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, but the Panthers are undoubtedly their toughest test yet, and also employ a different style tactically than any of their previous three opponents.

The Panthers have dumped pucks in at the offensive blue line at a higher rate than any other team this postseason, aiming to avoid costly turnovers at the blue line and award themselves opportunities to enforce themselves physically on opposing defenders.

The Oilers have improved with regard to retrievals and zone exits compared to last season and have fared well in that aspect of the game this postseason, but they have not faced a team with four lines as capable of effectively applying a heavy forecheck as the Panthers.

Florida’s offensive play is certainly not as flashy as the Oilers’, but it still ranks second in slot shots created per game this season, based largely on its ability to force turnovers in key areas of the ice and create chances while the opposition is out of position.

While the Panthers have generated a fair share of high-quality chances, head coach Paul Maurice’s team is still most known for their elite defensive play and has allowed only 2.80 xGA/60 this postseason.

After each of the Panthers’ first three series, the opposition’s top stars, such as Nikita Kucherov, Mitch Marner, and Sebastian Aho, were all criticized for a lack of production, which makes the case that a huge part of the story needs to be the Panthers’ ability to suppress elite offensive talents.

However, those players obviously still aren’t at the same level offensively as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and each of those three teams’ defensive corps struggled to move the puck up the ice and force the Panthers to defend. Based on what we have seen so far this postseason, Edmonton’s defensive core should be more well-suited to help handle dump-ins effectively and help drive offence in transition.

Matthew Tkachuk continues to look as though he is dealing with a significant injury, but Florida still enters this matchup in great shape from a health perspective, given that A.J. Greer is the only skater who may be unavailable for this matchup.

After a shaky start to the series in Round Two versus the Toronto Maple Leafs, Sergei Bobrovsky has been razor-sharp and now holds a +8.5 GSAx rating and .912 save percentage in 17 games played this postseason.

By most indications, the Oilers are in a better place mentally than they were entering last year’s final and seem to be laser-focused on getting off to a good start after carving out an insurmountable three-game deficit in 2024. Part of the confidence among the team likely comes down to their belief that they are, in fact, a better team now than they were then, after completely dominating the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars with effective play in all facets of the game.

It’s not as though the Oilers were outclassed in last year’s final either, which should be obvious to say given that they lost Game 7 by one goal. The Oilers outscored the Panthers 23 to 18 in last year’s series, held a 52.7% expected goal share across all strengths, and allowed only 24.63 shots against per 60.

If Mattias Ekholm is able to offer his typical level of play in this series, the Oilers’ defensive core is clearly improved compared to last year’s series. Jake Walman has had a fantastic postseason run, and his tremendous ability to evade forecheckers on puck retrievals and drive play the other way should be an asset in this series.

The underlying numbers also suggest the Oilers have played a very sharp team game this postseason, as they enter this series with the highest expected goal share of all teams this postseason and have generated more slot shots per game than any other team.

Edmonton took just 16 games to reach the final this postseason, compared to last year’s mark of 18, and has not relied nearly as much on McDavid and Draisaitl to steal games, which could help the Oilers’ dynamic duo be more prepared to take on a hefty workload compared to last year. Draisaitl also seems to be in better condition, in particular, as he was clearly ailing badly in last year’s final.

Whether or not Stuart Skinner is able to continue playing at a high level is likely the greatest source of volatility in this series. He may not need to steal games in order for the Oilers to win this series, but he will need to be sharper than in the early part of last year’s Final, and make the saves he is supposed to.

Skinner holds a +2.8 GSAx rating and .904 save percentage in 10 appearances this postseason.

Edmonton has offered well-structured team play this postseason and is no longer a team reliant on an elite power play and absurd production from McDavid and Draisaitl to power their success. While the Oilers do seem to be a much-improved team entering this year’s rematch, they also do not seem to be getting enough credit for how well they played in last year’s final despite the losing result.

At -130, there looks to be a little value backing the Oilers in this matchup, but I see slightly more value in backing Edmonton to win the series at the price of -125 and will likely add to that position if the Oilers are to lose this game in most circumstances.

There does look to be value in betting Nugent-Hopkins to record over 2.5 shots on goal at a long price of +145.

McDavid’s line will face a tough matchup in this series as Maurice will try to play Barkov’s line and Gustav Forsling’s pairing against them as much as possible, but I still believe Edmonton’s top line can win that matchup, and Knoblauch can try to use the last change to cherry-pick good spots for McDavid’s line here on home ice.

Many of Nugent-Hopkins’ shot attempts have also come from the left flank on the top power play unit, as his shot seems to be an option that opponents can live with as opposed to Draisaitl’s one-timer from the right side. He’s recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of the last seven games, and at a price of +145 there looks to be value riding that trend.