Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Saturday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Carolina Hurricanes.
Oilers vs. Hurricanes Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: +119
- Carolina Hurricanes Moneyline: -132
- Puck Line: Oilers +1.5 (-213), Hurricanes -1.5 (+184)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -102, Under -110)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Oilers (34-25 SU, 21-38 ATS, 27-31-1 O/U)
Edmonton will wrap up its five-game Eastern Conference road trip in Carolina on Saturday, looking to snap a five-game losing streak before heading home for a three-game homestand. However, Edmonton is just 3-7 in its last 10 meetings against the Hurricanes.
The Oilers entered the break atop the Pacific Division, but their recent skid has cost them ground. Vegas now sits four points ahead, while Los Angeles has nearly erased a seven-point gap, trailing Edmonton by just two points with two games in hand.
According to Evolving Hockey, Edmonton’s five-on-five play has plummeted over the last six games. Since Feb. 5, the Oilers have controlled just 40.43 percent of the expected goals and 46.11 percent of the shot attempts — poor results both on the surface and underneath. Even Connor McDavid has struggled, posting an on-ice expected goals percentage of 33.97 at five-on-five during this stretch.
McDavid has points in three straight games, but the Oilers have been outscored 11-1 at five-on-five with him on the ice since Feb. 5, and he hasn’t scored in six games. Meanwhile, Leon Draisaitl has carried the team with a 10-game point streak, including goals in seven straight contests — more than any teammate over the last 10 games.
It was tough to bet on Edmonton to begin with, given that sportsbooks often price them as the best team in the league, but now it’s near impossible to justify betting on the Oilers given their current form. Edmonton was a profitable moneyline bet on the road in October and November, but if a bettor had started betting on the Oilers to win road games in December, they’d be down nearly five units.
Some will say this is a good time to buy low on the Oilers, but it’s not like they’ve been unlucky. The Oilers have deserved to be on the losing end of their last five games.
Handicapping the Hurricanes (34-25 SU, 27-32 ATS, 24-32-4 O/U)
Carolina hasn’t been at its best lately, losing five of six games before opening a four-game homestand with a 5-2 win over Buffalo. Unlike Edmonton, though, the Hurricanes have continued to control play, owning 61.5% of the shot attempts and 53.69% of the expected goals at five-on-five, per Evolving Hockey.
The Hurricanes have been tough to beat at home, boasting the NHL’s third-best home record (22-6-1) and generating nearly four units of profit as a moneyline favorite in all 29 home games.
It’s unclear which goaltender will start Saturday. Pyotr Kochetkov has started three of the last four games, while Frederik Andersen has lost three straight starts with little offensive support, as Carolina scored just three goals combined in those games.
However, Andersen has dominated Edmonton in his career, posting an 18-2-2 record with a .925 save percentage and 2.27 goals against average, including three wins in four starts since joining the Hurricanes in 2021-22.
Seth Jarvis leads the team in scoring since Jan. 1 with 14 goals and seven assists in 22 games. The 23-year-old is also tied with Sebastian Aho for the most shots on goal by a forward during that stretch. That said, Aho and Andrei Svechnikov aren’t far behind, as both players have scored 17 points in their last 21 games.
Meanwhile, Mikko Rantanen has struggled to produce since being traded to Carolina but the 28-year-old hasn’t been invisible. Rantanen has registered three or more shots on goal in seven of nine games with the Hurricanes and he’s coming off his best offensive performance with a goal and an assist against Buffalo.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Hurricanes
Evan Bouchard Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (+125)
Shots will be hard to come by for the Oilers on Saturday. Not only has Edmonton failed to register more than 27 shots in any of its last five games, the Hurricanes allow the fewest shots per 60 minutes in the league. However, Evan Bouchard registered five shots on goal versus Carolina earlier this season, and he’s registered at least three shots in more than half of his games this season, including seven of his last 11 games. Given how tough it will be for Edmonton to generate quality scoring chances in this game, I can definitely see them relying on Bouchard to get pucks on net.
