Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Saturday’s matchup between the New York Rangers and Edmonton Oilers.

Rangers vs. Oilers Odds

  • New York Rangers Moneyline: +115
  • Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -135
  • Puck Line: Rangers +1.5 (-1225), Oilers -1.5 (+180)
  • Game Total: 6.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.

Handicapping the Rangers (12-6 SU, ??? 8-10 ATS, 8-9-1 O/U)

The Rangers started the season strong, looking like a completely different team. By October 26, eight games in, they ranked second in both expected goals percentage at even strength and goal share, trailing only Carolina. However, since then, their performance has dipped sharply. They now rank among the bottom six in expected goals and have a negative goal differential. In short, the Rangers have reverted to relying too heavily on their goaltenders to bail them out.
Take Thursday’s game in Calgary: the Rangers allowed a season-high 49 shots in an overtime loss to the Flames. It was the fifth time in the last 10 games their opponent registered 37 or more shots. Unsurprisingly, four of their six losses have come during this stretch. Without stellar goaltending from Igor Shesterkin and veteran Jonathan Quick, it could have been worse.
This puts head coach Peter Laviolette in a tough spot for Saturday’s game. While Shesterkin has been solid, he’s lost five of his last nine starts. Quick, on the other hand, is coming off back-to-back shutouts, stopping the last 61 shots he faced. The 38-year-old also boasts a 25-12-6 record against the Oilers, while Shesterkin has split his two starts against them, allowing four goals each time.
That said, I don’t buy the narrative that the Rangers are better off with Quick in goal than Shesterkin. Sure, Quick is undefeated, but he’s played four games against weak teams. Even last season, most of his games were against non-playoff teams. It could be true that the Rangers play a different style with Shesterkin in goal, but I believe strength of schedule is important when comparing statistics and records.
It’s not all negative. New York’s offense remains as potent as ever, ranking third in expected goals, sixth in shot attempts, and seventh in goals per 60 minutes. The Rangers are also among the best in the league on special teams, ranking second on the penalty kill, and eighth on the power play. Star forward Artemi Panarin is the only player among the top-50 scorers, though.

Handicapping the Oilers (10-11 SU, 6-15 ATS, 8-12-1 O/U)

Edmonton took an early lead just 27 seconds into Thursday’s game after Marc-Andre Fleury misplayed a dump-in. However, instead of building on that momentum, the Oilers delivered their worst home performance of the season. While the 5-3 score line wasn’t as lopsided as some previous shutout losses at Rogers Place, it didn’t reflect how poorly Edmonton played.
According to Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model, only last week’s shutout loss in Montreal ranked as a worse five-on-five performance. Against the Wild, the Oilers controlled just 28 percent of the expected goals at five-on-five, after posting an even lower 21 percent share in Montreal—more than 10 percent below Edmonton’s worst mark last season. These numbers suggest the team is in worse shape heading into American Thanksgiving than they were a year ago, no matter what the standings say.
Injuries are certainly a factor in Edmonton’s struggles. Missing key players like Zach Hyman, Viktor Arvidsson, and Darnell Nurse is significant, but a team aiming for the Stanley Cup shouldn’t collapse this dramatically with its top stars still available. The Oilers only seem capable of decisive wins when Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl delivers a dominant performance; otherwise, they lose or scrape by with narrow victories.
Thursday’s game also highlighted Edmonton’s goaltending woes. Stuart Skinner posted a sub-.850 save percentage for the fourth time in his last five starts, allowing more than 1.3 goals above expected. He currently ranks second-last in goals saved above expected, but no goaltender has performed worse over the past month. Since October 28, Skinner has allowed 8.4 more goals than an average netminder would have faced under similar conditions.
It may be time for Edmonton to turn to Calvin Pickard. As Jason Gregor points out, the Oilers have a break until Friday, giving Skinner a chance to reset. Edmonton also needs to reset its offensive approach. Pickard gave them a chance to win in Montreal, but the team failed to provide any offensive support. Similarly, against Minnesota, the Oilers showed little offensive substance, regardless of the 5-3 score line.

Best Bet for Rangers vs. Oilers

Despite my harsh criticism of the Oilers, I still think this is a game that Edmonton can and should win. However, so does the betting market. Edmonton is currently a -135 favorite, and I don’t think this is a game that they win more than 57.5 percent of the time if Shesterkin ends up starting. Therefore, I don’t believe there’s any value backing Edmonton on the moneyline. That said, given how poor the Rangers’ team defense is, I do think there’s value in the player prop betting market.

Leon Draisaitl Over 1.5 Points (+125) at Sports Interaction

As mentioned, the Oilers need a big performance from Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl, and with both players skating on the same line, and working on the top power play unit together, there’s a decent chance of that happening on Saturday. Draisaitl has registered multiple points in eight of his last 13 games playing on line that has been tinkered with quite a bit. The decision to have Draisaitl skate alongside McDavid is only going to increase his chances of continuing his recent scoring surge.