Edmonton and Vegas will face off for the first time this season on Wednesday at Rogers Place and the return of Connor McDavid has flipped the betting market on its head. Originally, the Oilers were a -115 moneyline favorite, but they’re now listed at -150 odds.
Golden Knights vs. Oilers Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -150
- Vegas Golden Knights Moneyline: +125
- Puck Line: Golden Knights +1.5 (-190), Oilers -1.5 (+155)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Oilers (6-7 SU, 4-9 ATS, 3-9-1 O/U)
Edmonton couldn’t solve goaltender Jake Allen in Monday’s 3-0 loss to New Jersey, but it wasn’t for lack of trying—they outshot the Devils 31-16 and held them to just six shots in the final 40 minutes. However, while it was a good performance in many respects, it highlights the main concern going forward: the Oilers might not have enough firepower when McDavid is out of the lineup.
Thankfully, McDavid is set to return, well ahead of schedule, after being a surprise participant in line rushes at Wednesday’s practice. This should give the Oilers a big boost given that they generated 2.95 expected goals per 60 minutes over their four games with McDavid compared to 3.78 per 60 minutes in the nine games with McDavid.
Stuart Skinner has had success against Vegas in the regular season, going 4-1-1, but the 26-year-old has had trouble with consistency this season. Skinner has had time to rest since his strong performance in Calgary on Sunday, but he hasn’t won consecutive games yet this season and he’s had just as many bad games as good games.
Handicapping the Golden Knights (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS, 10-2 O/U)
At first glance, the Golden Knights (8-3-1) are entering this game playing some of their best hockey since their 2023 Stanley Cup win. Vegas is a perfect 8-0 at The Fortress this season but they remain winless as the visitor.
Wednesday’s matchup in Edmonton offers an opportunity to get right on the road, with nine of their next 11 games scheduled away from home. However, Rogers Place has not been kind to the Golden Knights, especially in recent years, and their underlying metrics leave a lot to be desired. Vegas is the only top-10 team in five-on-five goal differential with less than 50% control of expected goals and the worst shot share in that group.
Vegas is shooting the lights out right now. They’ve got the second-best five-on-five shooting percentage (13.71 percent) in the NHL, and their fourth-ranked power play has converted on roughly one out of every three opportunities. Obviously, we should question just how sustainable this is, but this team was able to sustain a high shooting percentage throughout an entire playoff run on their way to a championship. However, Vegas was also getting great goaltending from Adin Hill, and that hasn’t necessarily been the case this season.
Hill has had a couple of decent games, but he’s been mediocre overall and Ilya Samsonov isn’t traveling with Vegas on this road trip. Hill has gone 1-1-1 versus the Oilers in the regular season since 2021-22. He allowed five goals in his last trip to Rogers Place on April 10th, but he stopped 30 of 31 shots against Edmonton on Feb. 6th in a 3-1 home victory.
My Best Bet
If you didn’t bet on the Oilers before the market learned that McDavid would be returning, you missed out on a great moneyline odds, but I’m still willing to wager that this game will feature seven or more goals.
Over 6.5 Goals (-115) at Sports Interaction
The last five meetings in Edmonton have gone 3-1-1 to the under, and Edmonton is 3-9-1 to the under this season. However, while the last two games featured six or fewer goals, the teams have combined for seven or more goals in five of their last seven matchups. Both Hill and Skinner have struggled at times, and with McDavid’s return comes the expectation that Edmonton will create more offense than they would have without him.
