Sportsbooks favor Edmonton in their first matchup against Vancouver this season, with the potential absence of the Canucks’ leading goal scorer casting a significant shadow over the game.
Oilers vs. Canucks Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -115
- Vancouver Canucks Moneyline: -105
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+195), Canucks +1.5 (-250)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Matchup
Only four points separate these two teams in the standings, and Vancouver has two games in hand. However, while the Canucks have gotten off to a better start, they’ve gone 1-1-3 at home this season, while Edmonton is 4-2 on the road. Neither team has been profitable for bettors overall, unless you’ve been betting against them, but the Oilers are 4-2 on the road this season, while the Canucks are 1-1-3 at Rogers Arena.
Handicapping the Oilers (6-8 SU, 4-10 ATS, 3-10-1 O/U)
According to the betting market, Edmonton is still seen as the best team in the Pacific Division, despite recent losses. The Oilers were heavy favorites (-160) at home against Vegas and are favored again on the road versus Vancouver. This suggests the market believes Edmonton is better than their current performance shows, which is especially surprising given their unexpected scoring struggles.
The Oilers played well against Vegas, but it marked the eighth time in 14 games that they scored two or fewer goals. While mistakes in the final 10 minutes ultimately cost them the game, these errors wouldn’t be as glaring if Edmonton were scoring at their expected rate. Defense and goaltending are important, but they aren’t the primary keys to victory for the Oilers. So far, Edmonton is 0-8 in games where they score two or fewer goals.
Currently, Edmonton ranks 30th in offense and has struggled in all scoring situations. They’re among the bottom five teams in five-on-five goals per 60 minutes and sit 26th in power play success, with a 14.29% conversion rate. However, the odds makers are looking beyond these stats. Edmonton remains a top-10 team in shots and expected goals, and that underlying strength signals better results ahead.
Handicapping the Canucks (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U)
Forward Brock Boeser (6-5–11) was blindsided by a hit from forward Tanner Jeannot in the first period of Thursday’s game, resulting in a major penalty and a three-game suspension for Jeannot. Boeser immediately left the ice for the locker room and did not return. We don’t know how long Vancouver will be without Boeser, but the injury certainly puts a damper on what has been an otherwise great run for the Canucks.
Vancouver recently swept their California road trip and has won seven of their last nine games after starting the season 0-3. They’ve scored three or more goals in nine of 14 games and are 7-2 in those contests, but potentially losing their leading goal-scorer is a serious blow. Boeser not only leads the team in goals, but also leads all Vancouver forwards in shot attempts and expected goals. He has also scored three of the Canucks’ seven power-play goals this season.
That said, Vancouver is far from one-dimensional. They rank among the league’s best defensive teams, sitting fourth in expected goals against and fifth in shots against per 60 minutes at even strength, with a top-10 penalty kill. Only seven teams have allowed fewer goals per 60 minutes in all situations. Though starting goaltender Thatcher Demko has been sidelined by injury, Kevin Lankinen has stepped up, posting a .923 save percentage with seven wins and a shutout in nine games. Among goaltenders who have faced at least 300 unblocked shot attempts, Lankinen ranks ninth in goals saved above expected, according to Evolving Hockey.
My Best Bet
Depending on how things play out with Boeser’s injury, there could be some interesting lineup changes that would lead me to place a player prop bet on a Vancouver forward. I mean, what if Conor Garland moves up to the top line? He’s registered three or more shots in four of his last six games, with a couple of the league’s best defensive teams among the opponents. Garland is currently listed at -110 odds to register three or more shots on goal against the Oilers. Regardless, I still think this is a good spot for the Oilers, so I’m keeping it simple with a moneyline bet on the road team.
Edmonton Oilers Moneyline (-115) at Sports Interaction
While it is true that Vancouver has been solid defensively, they did allow three or more goals in seven out of their first nine games. Additionally, two of their last three games came against the Sharks and Ducks, two of the worst offensive teams in hockey. The Canucks have also given up 4.2 goals per game on home ice this season. Considering the Oilers rank second in shot attempts and fifth in expected goals per 60 minutes, I’m expecting this game to look a lot like Vancouver’s 4-3 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes a couple of weeks ago.