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NHL Betting Preview (Oct. 15): Oilers vs. Flyers Odds
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Photo credit: © Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
Andrew MacNeil
Oct 15, 2024, 08:45 EDTUpdated: Oct 15, 2024, 12:00 EDT
The Oilers are off to a shocking 0-3 start, dropping games to Winnipeg, Chicago, and Calgary—teams they were expected to handle. Now, they face a Flyers squad still looking to establish itself early in the season. The question is whether Edmonton will finally bounce back or continue their slide against another weak opponent. This article breaks it all down from a betting perspective.

Oilers vs. Flyers Odds

  • Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -225
  • Philadelphia Flyers Moneyline: +180
  • Puck Line: Flyers +1.5 (-140), Oilers -1.5 (+115)
  • Game Total: 6.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.

Matchup

The Flyers handed Edmonton a 4-1 loss in Philadelphia last October, but the Oilers answered back with a 5-2 win on home ice in January. That’s been the trend in recent seasons, as the two teams have traded wins going back to the 2019-20 season.
Edmonton is 8-5-2 against Philadelphia in the Connor McDavid era but they have defeated the Flyers in three out of the last four meetings at Rogers Place and they went 12-3-1 against Eastern Conference opponents at home last season.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get daily updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders.

Handicapping the Flyers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U)

The Flyers haven’t been good on the road over the last three seasons, but they did perform well as big road underdogs in a small sample last season. Philadelphia has also looked decent on special teams. The Flyers had the fourth-best penalty kill last season and so far they’ve successfully killed off 80 percent of their penalties.
That said, after coming from behind to defeat Vancouver in a shootout on Friday, the Flyers once again found themselves chasing the Flames on Saturday, but this time, they could not overcome the deficit. However, Philadelphia should be happy with their 1-1 record, though, as they have owned just 35 percent of the high danger shot attempts at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Philadelphia has controlled just 42 percent of expected goals at five-on-five so far this season despite controlling most of the shots. Last season, they finished seventh in expected goals percentage. However, early signs suggest that the team has players that are ready to take the next step.
Morgan Frost and Owen Tippett looked great playing with Travis Konecny in the first game, owning 80 percent of the shots and high danger chances. Meanwhile, rookie Matvei Michkov has looked comfortable playing over 18 minutes per game. Frost, Tippett, and Michkov are projected to skate on the same line in Edmonton, while Konecny will skate with Tyson Forester and Jett Lunchanco. However, it looks like Scott Laughton could get a spot on the top line with Joel Farabee questionable after what head coach John Tortorella described as a maintenance day on Monday.

Handicapping the Oilers (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, 1-1-1 O/U)

The Oilers are giving fans very little incentive to back them as big home favourites against the Flyers. If the market were more reactive, it’d be a different story, but Edmonton is still priced as if they’re the best team in the league. If you don’t believe they are, betting on the Flyers makes sense—though that’s a tough call for many.
Edmonton had already won a game by this point last season, but this year they’re off to a worse start. Last season, they were outscored 13-10 in their first three games. This season, they’ve been outscored 15-3. They haven’t come close to winning, losing all three games by at least three goals and failing to cover the puck line. Of course, had virtually no shooting luck, and even had a couple of goals called back on Sunday.
According to Evolving Hockey, Edmonton has scored on just 2.4% of its shots despite controlling 62% of shot attempts and 58% of expected goals at even strength and there’s too much talent for that to continue much longer. With that said, the Oilers were outshot for the first time this season on Sunday, and the Flames controlled 66 percent of the expected goals. Special teams is also becoming a concern, as Edmonton has allowed five power play goals on nine opportunities.

My best bets

Although it’s tough to justify betting on Edmonton right now, especially considering the Oilers are a -225 moneyline favourite, there are player props that are worth targeting on Tuesday.

Jeff Skinner Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-110)

Jeff Skinner scored Edmonton’s lone goal on Sunday, his first as a member of the Oilers. Personally, I wasn’t sure how playing with Leon Draisaitl and Viktor Arvidsson would impact Skinner’s shot volume, given that both players like to shoot, but he’s leading the team with 12 shots on goal in three games. Skinner registered four shots on goal in the season opener, and six shots on goal against Calgary on Sunday. It’s only a matter of time before his props are adjusted to reflect his shooting volume.

Connor McDavid Anytime Goal (+135)

Since McDavid was injured in a game against the Flyers back in 2015-16, during his rookie campaign he has torn them up. In 14 games, he has scored 11 goals and 31 points, which is the most he’s scored against any team on a per game (2.31) basis. McDavid has shot the puck more and more each game, and with no goals, you can bet he’ll continue to take that approach on Tuesday.

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