Two struggling teams meet Friday at Rogers Place as Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers host Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Oilers vs. Penguins Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -225
- Pittsburgh Penguins Moneyline: +180
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+110), Penguins +1.5 (-135)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Matchup
Edmonton has dropped two straight, most recently a 4-1 loss to the Stars, followed by a 3-2 overtime defeat to the Hurricanes after squandering a two-goal lead. Pittsburgh is on a three-game slide, having fallen to Carolina, Winnipeg, and Calgary. Their three wins this season came against Detroit, Montreal, and Buffalo.
Since the 2019-20 season, Edmonton has dominated this matchup, going 7-1, including six consecutive wins over Pittsburgh, with an average margin of 5.5 to 1.5 in those games.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for today’s game.
Handicapping the Penguins (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-2-1 O/U)
Pittsburgh is in a tough spot, having already used three different goaltenders in just eight games. Tristan Jarry started two, including a rough 6-0 loss in their home opener. Joel Blomqvist, a 2020 second-round pick, has started three, while Alex Nedeljkovic has started the last two. The Penguins’ goalie situation is far from stable right now.
The Penguins are scoring at an above average rate, but they’ve underperformed expected goals by quite a wide margin. It’s good that Pittsburgh is getting goals from players like Rickard Rakell, Lars Eller, Kevin Hayes, and Drew O’Connor. However, that’s where most of the goals are coming from. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin must be leading the charge for them to have a real chance, and right now, they’re now.
Malkin started hot (2-9–11), but he hasn’t produced a point in the last three games, and captain Sidney Crosby has just one goal in eight games. Crosby has scored just three goals in 15 games against the Oilers since McDavid was drafted in 2015-16.
That said, Crosby scored 30-plus goals in every full season he’s played and his shooting percentage is absurdly low at the moment. Crosby has scored on just 4.5 percent of his shots so far, which is 10 percent lower than his career shooting average. The Penguins captain has generated 10 shots over the past two games.
Handicapping the Oilers (2-5 SU, 1-6 ATS, 2-4-1 O/U)
Despite entering the season as a top Stanley Cup contender, Edmonton has been held back by suspect defense and goaltending. The Oilers currently rank 17th in expected goals against in all situations, and only six teams have allowed more goals per 60 minutes. But even more surprising, Edmonton’s offense has sputtered, scoring two or fewer goals in five of seven games. They rank 28th in goals per 60 minutes, a stark contrast for a team that has ranked in the top seven in offense over the past four seasons.
Offensively, Edmonton’s scoring issues appear to be a statistical anomaly. Evolving Hockey’s model ranks them fourth-best in generating expected goals at even strength, and they’re near the top of the league in shot attempts across all situations. Given Pittsburgh’s defensive issues, Friday’s game could be a chance for Edmonton’s offense to get back on track. Pittsburgh has allowed more shots on goal than all but three teams and ranks fifth-worst in expected goals against in all situations. The Oilers have scored four or more goals in each of their last six games against the Penguins, including a combined 17-6 score in their last three home matchups.
However, the Oilers are big -225 moneyline favorites, which makes betting on them riskier. While they went 14-2 last season as home favorites of -200 or higher, the return on investment has been minimal, especially after two early-season losses as large favorites.
My best bets
All good things must come to an end, but while Jeff Skinner’s streak of going over 2.5 shots has caused oddsmakers to make an adjustment, it’s still a bet worth considering. Additionally, I’ve also circled an Oilers’ defenseman to target in the shots on goal market on Friday.
Jeff Skinner Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-150)
Skinner has consistently reached three or more shots in six of seven games this season, including the last five straight. With sportsbooks now listing him at -150, the Penguins’ defensive struggles still make this a solid prop bet despite the price increase from +140 in the season opener.
Mattias Ekholm Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+120)
Evan Bouchard is the player on Edmonton’s blue line that everybody thinks of when looking at shot props, but Mattias Ekholm has actually been firing more pucks on a per 60 minute basis. Ekholm has registered at least three shots in four out his seven games played, including all three games that the Oilers were big home favourites.
