With Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl sustaining injuries less than a week apart, the Edmonton Oilers have dealt with some pretty unfortunate injury luck over the past month. But before these injuries, it seemed the Oilers had found their most optimal forward lineup.
For the vast majority of the season, McDavid and Draisaitl have centred Edmonton’s top-two lines, with Adam Henrique as Edmonton’s third-line center, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins playing on the wing. But in early March, head coach Kris Knoblauch decided to run McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, and Henrique down the middle, with each of them centring their own lines.
While it wasn’t a huge sample, the early results of this deployment were quite promising.
On the top line, Jeff Skinner and Zach Hyman were McDavid’s wingers, and they held a fantastic 67 percent expected goal differential in March, out-scoring opponents 4-to-0, while on the third line, Vasily Podkolzin and Viktor Arvidsson were RNH’s wingers, and that trio holds a strong 56 percent expected goal differential on the season. To top it all off, Henrique’s possession rates significantly improved at 4C in comparison to 3C, a role in which he has generally struggled for most of the season.
It seemed that the Oilers finally created the foundation of an extremely well-rounded forward lineup. Multiple factors suggest that the performance of that first, third and fourth line could be sustained over the long term and into the playoffs.
However, this deployment creates a big question for the second line.
The Oilers ran Connor Brown and Corey Perry next to Draisaitl, and to their credit, they did produce solid results in their limited time together. Draisaitl is having an outstanding, MVP-worthy season, and has dominated regardless of who his linemates have been this season.
But, can they really keep both Brown and Perry in the top-six over a long playoff run? I’m not so sure that’s a wise idea.
As we approach the playoffs, here’s a closer look into Edmonton’s forward lineup and who should play on Draisaitl’s wing.
*All on-ice stats via Natural Stat Trick and EvolvingHockey, and all microstats via AllThreeZones unless stated otherwise
Nov 23, 2024; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Vasily Podkolzin (92) celebrates after scoring a goal during the first period against the New York Rangers at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images
Sticking with Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
Edmonton’s most commonly deployed second-line wingers next to Draisaitl this season have been Vasily Podkolzin and Viktor Arvidsson, and this trio has generally performed quite well.
In 241 minutes at 5-on-5 together, they have out-scored opponents 10 to 8, possessing an excellent 61 percent expected goal differential. The most simple option for Edmonton here is to stick with Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Arvidsson moving forward, as it is their most proven option.
However, the main argument against deploying this line is the opportunity to deploy a truly well-rounded lineup.
As mentioned earlier, prior to McDavid and Draisaitl’s injuries, Edmonton had deployed Podkolzin and Arvidsson on RNH’s wings, and that trio had shown quite strong chemistry. What makes this particular deployment strategy appealing is the chance to run a genuinely impactful third line. This season, Adam Henrique has been Edmonton’s most common 3C, but his line has been out-shot and out-chanced, with a net negative impact overall.
Deploying a third line with the potential to be a genuine difference-maker instead could end up going a long way in the playoffs. With potential to be used as both offensively-minded or even as a defensive shutdown line, Podkolzin – RNH – Arvidsson is their best option in that regard.
What about Skinner and Podkolzin?
Podkolzin’s notable strengths are his defensive and forechecking abilities. He has been Edmonton’s top forechecker this season in terms of both recovering dump-ins and forcing opposition turnovers, and his impact on suppressing quality scoring chances against (i.e. RAPM xGA/60) ranks in the 95th percentile among all forwards (!). But, the main issue with his game is offensive consistency, as he just doesn’t have the production and scoring to be a surefire top-six winger.
On the other hand, Jeff Skinner’s most notable strengths are his offensive instincts and his finishing ability. At 5-on-5, Skinner currently ranks fourth among Edmonton’s skaters in points per hour, and third in goals per hour. But, although he has taken a huge step forward in this regard, Skinner is not the strongest defensive player.
So, on paper, Podkolzin and Skinner seem to be a winger match made in heaven, complementing each other’s main strengths and weaknesses perfectly.
Prior to the Four Nations break, the Oilers did run a line of Skinner – Draisaitl – Podkolzin for exactly two games, and they produced three goals. Stylistically speaking, this line could work extremely well, and to me, it’s completely baffling as to why this line has yet to be tried ever since.
However, at the same time, I would also like to see how Skinner – McDavid – Hyman perform over a larger sample, as that line should also work well on paper. It is likely a superior idea to play Skinner on the top line in general instead of the second line, as McDavid needs offensive support much more than Draisaitl at the current moment.
Option 3: Frederic – Draisaitl – X
The Oilers’ big trade deadline forward acquisition, Trent Frederic, seems most suited to slot into the hole on the second line. He has yet to play a game for the Oilers due to his week-to-week injury, but when he does return, I would not be surprised to see him get an opportunity on Draisaitl’s wing.
Here’s a general summary of Frederic’s underlying numbers:
Overall, Frederic is a well-rounded two-way forward with solid production rates and finishing talent. He has produced 1.75 points per hour at 5-on-5 in the past three seasons, which is higher than several Oilers forwards, including RNH (1.74) and Henrique (1.59).
Historically, Draisaitl’s best defensive and possession results have come next to tenacious, puck-retrieving forecheckers. In 2019-20, he had excellent results with Kailer Yamamoto, who was an absolute puck-hound at the time. This season, Draisaitl has also produced fantastic defensive results alongside Podkolzin.
But, if Podkolzin is to play next to RNH, then Frederic could play in Podkolzin’s role next to Draisaitl. In the past three seasons, Frederic’s forecheck pressure per hour rate ranks in the 81st percentile among all NHL forwards; stylistically, Frederic is suited well to fill the role of a complimentary, forechecking winger, and he likely has much more offensive potential than Podkolzin (granted he fully recovers from his injury).
All-in-all, Frederic is certainly the most obvious solution to the hole on Leon Draisaitl’s left wing. As for the other spot, the Oilers have several bottom-six right-wingers to choose from, including Connor Brown, Corey Perry, and Kasperi Kapanen.
Brown was initially signed by the Oilers in the summer of 2023 to play as a top-six winger, but unfortunately, his first season with Edmonton was infamous for his 72-game goalless drought. He’s certainly improved ever since, playing decently well in a bottom-six penalty-killing role, but he’s yet to bounce back to the second-line forward he was in the final two seasons with the Ottawa Senators.
That being said, Brown does have a 60% goal differential next to Draisaitl this season, and although his raw point totals are fairly unimpressive, he ranks fifth on the Oilers in points per hour at 5v5, and third amongst the wingers behind Hyman and Skinner.
Though Brown may not be a top-six winger on the average cup contender, there’s an argument to be made that he is among Edmonton’s best options for the top-six.
Now, if one were to solely make a conclusion based on the statistical results alone, Perry would be a slam-dunk to play on Draisaitl’s wing. After all, he’s averaged more goals per hour this season than Connor McDavid at 5v5 (!!), and he has a 61 GF% / 61 xGF% next to Draisaitl in 200 minutes this season. While nearly the entirety of Edmonton’s non-Draisaitl players have regressed from last season, Perry is one of the few exceptions.
But, the problem with Perry is his skating and age, as he turns 40 in May. While Perry can certainly excel in the bottom-six, it is highly doubtful that he could keep up in a top-six role for the entirety of a playoff run.
If Perry can sustain his regular-season results in the top-six in the playoffs, he should absolutely be on Draisaitl’s wing, but whether that can actually happen is a massive question mark.
Finally, the Oilers also have Kasperi Kapanen. He does have some offensive skill and talent, averaging more goals per hour at 5v5 than RNH, Podkolzin, Henrique, and Brown. Furthermore, Kapanen is decently fast – a key advantage he holds over Perry – and Draisaitl also has a history of excelling next to fast wingers. For what it’s worth, Draisaitl has a 61% expected goal differential with Kapanen in limited minutes this season.
However, Kapanen has struggled defensively this season. In fact, not a single winger in the entire NHL (minimum 500 minutes) has been on the ice for more goals against at 5v5 than Kapanen this season. And, while his production relative to the rest of Edmonton’s wingers may look solid, it’s certainly not high enough to outweigh his defensive deficiencies.
With the lack of bonafide top-six options for the RW spot available, Matthew Savoie may also be intriguing.
Savoie is Edmonton’s top forward prospect and has spent the vast majority of the season with the Bakersfield Condors in the AHL. But, he did play four games with the Oilers after the Four Nations break and had a couple of strong flashes next to Draisaitl.
Unfortunately, barring significant injuries, I doubt Knoblauch even seriously considers this option. But if the Oilers reach a stage where none of Brown, Perry or Kapanen work out, it wouldn’t hurt to at least give Savoie an opportunity.
May 25, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Edmonton Oilers left wing Evander Kane (91) in action during the game between the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers in game two of the Western Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at American Airlines Center.
What about Evander Kane?
Many have projected Evander Kane to play on Draisaitl’s wing when he returns from his injury in the playoffs. But, I am personally strongly against this option.
In each of the past three seasons, Draisaitl has produced awful 5v5 results next to Kane, particularly because of their putrid defensive play together. In 2021-22, away from McDavid, Draisaitl and Kane held a horrendous 42 percent scoring chance differential. In 2022-23, it still remained at 44 percent. It did improve to exactly 50 percent in 2023-24, but it is still not strong enough for a cup contender, particularly when you account for the fact that Draisaitl improved all the way to 59 percent away from Kane that year.
There are multiple factors for these poor results. Kane is a slow forward with horrendous passing ability and defensive results, and although he may be physical, he’s not an effective forechecker in terms of loose puck retrievals and forcing turnovers, and his goal-scoring abilities are not enough to outweigh these deficiencies. Additionally, with Kane coming off a major surgery and such significant missed time, it’s likely that those results could be even worse, especially in the playoffs. Perhaps Kane could work elsewhere in the lineup, but the overwhelming body of evidence strongly suggests that he is not the answer to the hole on the second line.
All things considered, the Oilers have a variety of different options here when the lineup is completely healthy, each with several pros and cons. Luckily, with the fantastic year that Draisaitl is having, he should be able to find success regardless of who plays on his wing. But nevertheless, with the playoffs approaching, the coaching staff should find the most optimal way to fully maximize his abilities and the rest of the team.
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