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Pre-Scout: The Capitals might not be scoring much, but they’re very tough to score on
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Photo credit: © Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
Michael Menzies
Nov 19, 2025, 11:00 ESTUpdated: Nov 19, 2025, 11:05 EST
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Certainly, there’s enough shenanigans happening on Capitol Hill that the lacklustre start for the Washington Capitals is flying under the radar. Blink and you would have missed in the 20,000 released emails this revelatory phrase: “The Caps aren’t scoring, Donny.” 
Perhaps a regular season where everything went right a year ago is regressing just as harshly in the opposite way in 2025-26 for Washington. 
No one expected a 51-22-9 season, in the same way that a 9-8-2 record raises eyebrows this year to start. 
The Caps enter Wednesday’s game wrapping up a three-game homestand, gutting out a 2-1 win vs the Los Angeles Kings, snapping LA’s 10-game road point streak. Not exactly appointment television, I grant you, but Washington doesn’t allow goals all too often. 
Tied for third best in goals against, allowing just 49 this year, WSH staved off the Kings thanks to Alex Ovechkin’s 903rd goal, to win head coach Spencer Carbery’s 100th regular season game. 
“You could tell we’re looking for good things to happen, not only as a team, but individually…When you’re searching for that — anything positive — winning a game like this, it just builds. It builds momentum for us, it builds confidence, and that’s really, really important,” Carbery said.
The Caps were 2-6-2 in their last 10 before Tuesday.
Combined with Edmonton’s lack of chance generation, are we due for a low-scoring snoozer, or will the shackles of low goal totals be thrown off by the goal-scoring king Ovechkin and co? 

Stats are there

But these two teams are trending in opposite directions.
The Oilers are outscoring their poor 5-on-5 play with a great power play and having Jack Roslovic become a third part of the Holy Trinity (McJesus-Draisaitl) with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins out. 
Meanwhile, the Capitals are true analytical darlings, but can’t bear down and score, and have a ghastly power play at 14 per cent. Think of the New York Rangers without the embarrassing home shutouts. 
Quickly, 5-on-5, they rank, via Moneypuck (as of Tuesday): 
  • Second in GF% 
  • Third in xGF% 
  • Third in Corsi% 
  • Fifth in Fenwick% 
  • Third in Expected Goals For 
What does this mean? The team should be scoring more. The Caps are outscoring teams at 5-on-5 by 16! That’s the second-best mark in the NHL. 

Yes, it’s him who leads

But without looking (don’t look), guess who leads the Capitals in scoring. 
  • Ovechkin? 
  • Nope. 
  • Strome? 
  • Close, but no. 
  • What about that guy who came outta nowhere last year…what was his name…Aliaksei Protas? 
  • No. 
Who else is there…
Tom friggin’ Wilson, that’s who. That’s right, last year’s 65-point season doesn’t appear to be a flash in the pan because he’s got 9-9–18 to lead the way. I might get flamed for saying this, but Tom Wilson’s inclusion on Team Canada would make them a ferocious team to play against. 
Wilson is one of the few true power forwards remaining in the game. He plays on the edge, sometimes crosses the line, but what a throwback of a player. Most of the league hates him, and he’s so effective for his team. 
He isn’t just some goon — he’s leading the Caps in points, just ahead of Strome. 
And if the Oilers are going to let themselves be pushed around, Wilson is going to take centre stage. 

A true can’t miss piece

Of course, the man with the best chance for Team Canada — but for some reason is so overlooked by Doug Armstrong and the brass — is Logan Thompson. 
Logan Thompson needs to be Team Canada’s starter in Milano. 
He’s following up last year’s tremendous campaign by posting a 1.85GAA and .925sv%. No one in the NHL who has played more than five games has a better save percentage. 
His Goals Saved Above Expected is second-best in the league, as well as Wins Above Replacement (WAR), typically a baseball stat, but it applies well to goaltenders. 
I expect Thompson will start vs. the Oilers since Charlie Lindgren started Tuesday. Lindgren has struggled mightily at times, but posted a solid 30-save winner in his last outing. The right-handed catching goalies are on the mend. 

Notes:

  • A word here on Jakob Chychrun. He’s dynamite: 4-10–14. He is the top minutes man, averaging 23:30, which would be a career high. He doesn’t kill penalties very often, but his 5-on-5 and PP time make him a tremendous threat. 
  • Then there’s John Carlson, who, at 35, just continues to be reliable, steady, and ready to go in all situations. He mirrors Chychrun with a 4-10–14, but an added feather in the fedora was a neat milestone achieved Tuesday. 
  • Carlson’s 1106th game the other night puts him second in franchise history in GP, just surpassing Nicklas Backstrom. The Caps are just the fourth franchise to have their top-two franchise GP leaders both active at once. Ovechkin has played 1510 games. Neat. 
  • I haven’t talked much about Ovi yet because you’re all too familiar with what he does. But there were early struggles for the king, perhaps a symptom of missing training camp. However, he has eight points in his last seven games. He’ll be just fine. 
  • Pierre-Luc Dubois’ services will be missing for three to four months. He underwent surgery on his abdominal and abductor muscles a week ago. Rough go. 
  • It’s not just a bottom-three power play for the Caps, it’s also a bottom-six penalty kill. They’d be best served playing 5-on-5 in this one. 
  • The Oilers are 5-5 vs the Capitals in their 10 head-to-heads straight up. In the last five times at Washington, the Oilers went L-W-L-W-L…so are we due for an Edmonton win? 

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