Special teams are crucial if you want to go deep in the playoffs, and historically, a good penalty kill is more important than a good power play. Both need to be good, but in the salary cap era, teams that make it to the Conference Final usually have great penalty kills. The Oilers’ overall penalty kill percentage won’t look good at the end of the playoffs, even if they kill off every penalty the rest of the playoffs. The Oilers have allowed 14 goals on 37 kills (62.5%), and if they play 11 more games and maintain the same three PK/game, they’d finish the playoffs shorthanded 70 times — going perfect the rest of the way would finish their PK at 80%.

The overall percentage won’t look good, but the Oilers have to solve their PK woes starting now, otherwise it will be difficult to win the final two series.

Since 2006, only four teams have won the Cup with a PK% below 81%. The 2015 Blackhawks (79%), the 2018 Capitals (76%), the 2019 Blues (75.4%) and the 2023 Golden Knights (71.7%). However, the Blackhawks’ PP was solid, and their PPGF-PKGA differential was +2. Washington was +4, St. Louis was -7 (they allowed four shorthanded goals) and Vegas was -2.

It is possible to hoist the Stanley Cup with subpar special teams, but it is very rare. The Oilers’ PPGF-PKGA is currently -7. Not good enough.

Their penalty kill has been brutal early in each series.

LA’s PP was 50% in the first two games, scoring five goals on 10 chances. They were 100% in Game 3, going 2-for-2. In the final three games, the Oilers only allowed one goal on eight kills.

Vegas went three-for-seven in the first two games but then went 0-for-6 in the final three games.

Dallas was 75% in Game 1, going 3-for-4.

The PK has been a dreadful 50% in the opening games of the series this year, allowing six goals on 12 kills. It was even worse in Game 2s, allowing five goals on nine kills (44.4%). The Oilers’ penalty killers need to do their job tonight. The forwards need good sticks and must be in the shooting lanes, and they must block shots. The D-men need to win one-on-one battles and clear the puck when they have a chance, and Stuart Skinner needs to make a key save or two.

It is noticeable how much the Oilers miss Mattias Ekholm, Cody Ceci and Vincent Desharnais on the PK. Ekholm played 68 minutes and was on for three GA. Desharnais logged 47 minutes, mainly with Ekholm, and was on for three GA. Ceci played 54 minutes, while Darnell Nurse played 40 and they were on for zero GA. Desharnais blocked 15 shots, Nurse 10 and Ekholm 8.

This year, Nurse has played 28 minutes and leads the Oilers with five blocked shots. Brett Kulak has three. Last year, the RD blocked 22 shots, but this year they’ve blocked a total of four. Ty Emberson (17:48), Evan Bouchard (19:13),and  Troy Stecher (3:15) have no blocked shots. Neither does Mattias Janmark. The forwards didn’t have a big number of blocks last year, however, as Janmark and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins led with three. They checked well with their sticks and feet and had a total of 12 blocks. This year, the forwards have four, with Adam Henrique leading with two and RNH and Connor Brown each having one.

Blocked shots are one aspect, and usually it is the D-men who eat more of them. They have 13 through 12 games this year (Josh Brown had three in his only game) after blocking 44 last year in 25 games and on 70 kills. The D-men need to get in the way of a few more shots. They also need better sticks to stop cross-seam passes and need better body positioning at times in front of the net.

The players and coaches are well aware of the PK issues. It is the area they are focused on the most. Considering how well the Oilers have played 5×5 throughout the playoffs, they don’t need their PK to be elite to win, it just can’t be as putrid as it has been thus far, especially early in the series. They can’t keep waiting until later in the series to figure out the opposition’s power play.

The power play is at 25.9% in the playoffs, which is solid, however, most of that success came in the opening round. The Oilers were 33% against LA (4 of 12), but in the six games since, they are 14.2% (2-for-14). They did score in Game 1 vs. Dallas, but it came on a broken play as Connor McDavid’s pass deflected off a Dallas stick, right to RNH in the slot. They only managed two shots on their three power plays. They got a PP midway through the third period in Game 1 when they trailed 4-3, but they didn’t even get one shot on goal. The PP never looked dangerous, and it really hasn’t since the LA series. They did create some decent looks in Game 2 vs. Vegas, mainly because they decided to shoot the puck. They had 10 shots in nine minutes of PP time. In the rest of that series and including Game 1 vs. Dallas, the Oilers have fired a total of 15 shots in 19:25.

The Oilers’ PP is best when they are shooting and creating. We haven’t seen that at all in their last four games, as their SF/60 is only 39.34 (it was 68.4 in the first eight games if you’re curious to see how drastic of a drop it has been). They need more movement on the PP, but mainly they need more shots. The split between their first eight games and the last four is staggering.

In the first eight games, the Oilers had 32 shots on 18 chances. In the last four games, they have nine shots on 9 chances. Bouchard doesn’t have a shot on goal, but Perry did deflect home one of his shots in the last four games for a goal. But Bouchard having no PP shots in four games, and the only one from Perry and Hyman was a deflection, isn’t ideal. Bouchard doesn’t need to be a high-volume shooter for the PP to have success. In fact, it is better when he’s not the main shooter, but often his point shot can lead to chaos as it creates a rebound.

Last playoffs, Draisaitl, McDavid and Hyman each averaged over one shot/game on the PP. This year, the Oilers have no players even close. Bouchard and Draisaitl each have eight shots on the PP in 12 games. If you combine Perry/Hyman as they split time on the first unit, they are at 11 shots — close, but still, not one player is averaging one shot/game on the PP.

They need quicker puck movement and more player movement to create more looks, but they need to be willing to shoot more than they have. This group has been very good at figuring out what ails their power play, but they need to do it quickly, especially with the PK faltering. It’s a bad recipe to have both special team units slumping at the same time.

— Kris Knoblauch is confident his team will rebound with a solid effort, mainly because they have experience dealing with tough losses. “It was heartbreaking the other night, but we’ve had some heartbreaking losses this year,” said Knoblauch. “Game 1 vs. LA and then Game 3 against Vegas — can’t get more disappointing than that. Last year, losing the final game. I think we will respond. There were a lot of positives from last night.”

He is correct that, through 40 minutes, the Oilers would have been very happy with their play. They were dominating at 5×5. They had killed off Dallas’ only power play, and the Oilers had a PP goal. Everything was good, but then everything imploded in the final period.

— The Oilers did a good job limiting Dallas’ chances off the rush at 5×5. If they continue to do that, they should have success, as long as they play disciplined. Corey Perry can’t take a needless cross-checking penalty in the offensive zone. He knows better than that. The best way to help your PK is to limit the PP chances for the opposition.

— Tyler Seguin loves playing the Oilers in the playoffs. After his two goals in Game 1, he now has 4-4-8 in seven games against the Oilers in the past two playoffs. Seguin had five shots 5×5, the most of any Stars player. That was more than Matt Duchene, Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Oscar Back (all zero), Wyatt Johnston (1), Sam Steel (1) and Mikko Rantanen (2) had combined. He was their best forward at 5×5 by a large margin.

— The Kane-Henrique-Brown line had their first rough night of the playoffs, getting outshot 8-3. They weren’t on the ice for a goal against, which is good, but they will need to spend more time attacking and less time defending tonight.

— Stuart Skinner needs to reduce his “low” games. He had two bad games vs. Vancouver last year (nine goals on 39 shots) and in the first two games vs. LA and Game 1 vs. Dallas, he allowed 16 goals on 85 shots. In those five games, he has a 5.08 GAA and a .798sv%. In his other 24 starts, he’s allowed 51 goals on 596 shots for a .914Sv% and 2.12 GAA. Off nights will happen, but they can’t be 17% of the time. I’m not blaming the loss on him — I think that would be misguided, as the entire team was brutal in the third, and Skinner, like the team, was good in the first 40 minutes — but to me it seems more of a focus issue than a technical problem for Skinner.

— In the Conference Finals during the salary cap era, teams who lose the first two games are 1-18 in the series. Only the 2022 Tampa Bay Lightning came back after losing both road games to the New York Rangers. Not a good sign for Carolina and shows how important tonight is for the Oilers.

Wyatt Johnston had a tough game. When he played with Jason Robertson and Matt Duchene, they got outscored 2-0 and outshot 5-1. Pete Deboer switched up his lines in the third period and moved Johnston with Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov and they got outshot 3-0, but the Marchment-Duchene-Seguin line was very good in the third and outshot the Oilers 4-1. Steel changed on the fly for Duchene and assisted on Seguin’s second goal, but Duchene was mainly the centre between them in the third period. I won’t be surprised if we see Duchene centring that line to start the game tonight.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Edmonton avoids being the 20th team in the salary cap era to go down 2-0 in the Conference Finals. They win 5-3.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Dallas scores a power-play goal.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid scores his first PP goal in 26 games (since March 4th).