The Edmonton Oilers have the fewest hits in the NHL. They are on pace for the fewest hits by a team since 2006-07, and only six teams in the salary cap era are averaging fewer hits at 5×5 than this year’s Oilers.
Edmonton’s hits are down 40% from each of the past three seasons. Edmonton has been quite consistent with its physical play the past three years, but it has fallen off a cliff this season…
The Oilers are dead last in hits — by a large margin. They’ve never led the hit parade, and that is fine, but in 2021-22 they were 15th, they were 16th in 2023, and they were 15th last season. That was quite consistent, and they rarely got ran out of the rink or pushed around.
This season they aren’t close to average. Seattle is 16th at 21.23 hits/60 at 5×5. Edmonton is 32nd at 13.42. Dallas is 31st at 14.91, Utah is 30th at 17.03 and Detroit is 29th at 17.93. They are the only other teams under 18 hits/60.
The Oilers’ lack of physicality is apparent every game. They have no one who can change the momentum by being physical. And the lack of physical play allows the other teams more time to make plays, which results in fewer turnovers.
Also, please don’t try and suggest the Oilers possess the puck more so that means they hit less. It is a theory that has been proven inaccurate over and over.
Fun fact: The Florida Panthers lead the NHL in hits with 1,715 (27.82 hits/60 at 5×5). They are second in the NHL in SF% (54.34%) and outshoot teams 1,490-1,252 at 5×5.
The Oilers are last in the NHL in hits with 811 (13.42 hits/60). They are third in the NHL in SF% (54.08%) and outshoot teams 1559-1324.
The Oilers and Detroit aren’t in possession of the puck more than Florida, despite having half as many hits. There are many examples of teams who are physical and also have more shots and more shot attempts, and there are teams who don’t hit and have fewer shots and shot attempts. Detroit for instance is 29th in hits/60 while also being 29th in SF%, 29th in FF% and 26th in CF%.
And last season the Oilers had a higher SF% than they do this season, despite having 40% more hits. I’m not sure why people keep repeating “you have fewer hits, because you possess the puck more.” It has been proven many times that isn’t the case. Florida has the puck more than their opponents and they outhit them. As do some other teams.
The Oilers don’t need to have the same identity as Florida, as teams are built differently, but just comparing this year’s Oilers to the previous three it is abundantly clear they lack a physical presence and are in dire need of acquiring a player, or two, who will play with an edge and physicality.
Adding Evander Kane to the lineup would help, but last year Kane had 250 hits in 77 games. If he was averaging the same this season that would be an additional 194 hits. That would give the Oilers 1,005 hits, which would rank them 31st in hits and hits/60. One player isn’t going to make that much of a difference. They need more current players willing to be aggressive.
Here’s a comparison from last season to this season for the Oilers’ forwards. First we have this season…
And here was last season…
Warren Foegele, Evander Kane, Ryan McLeod and Dylan Holloway (only 38 games) aren’t on this year’s roster. They’ve been replaced by Vasily Podkolzin, Jeff Skinner, Viktor Arvidsson and Kasperi Kapanen.
Foegele, Kane, McLeod and Holloway had a combined 495 hits, with Kane having 250. The new four players have combined for 232. Podkolzin and Kapanen rank first and second on the Oilers in hits this year with 133 and 52 respectively. Kapanen being second with 52 is wild.
The drop in hits is partially due to the change in roster, but every returning forward is much lower.
Adam Henrique was at 7.35 hits/60 last year. He’s at 2.69.
Connor McDavid was at 4.36 last year and is at 1.69 this year.
Mattias Janmark was at 3.90 and is at 1.88 this year.
Corey Perry was at 3.44 and is at 1.68.
Zach Hyman was at 3.34 and is at 2.49.
RNH was at 2.36 and sits at 0.91 this year.
Connor Brown was at 2.11 and is at 0.96.
Leon Draisaitl was at 2.07 and is at 0.87.
Across the board, every forward is down. Some of these players have never been overly physical, so I don’t suddenly expect them to be. I don’t need Leon Draisaitl delivering hits regularly, but even he’s down over 50%.
The defence is similar. Here’s last year…
And here’s this year…
The Oilers essentially used six D-men last regular season. Vincent Desharnais and Cody Ceci are gone. Ty Emberson replaced Desharnais, while so far Troy Stecher, Travis Dermott and John Klingberg have been used in Ceci’s spot.
Desharnais was at 6.60 hits/60 last year and Emberson sits at 6.27 this season.
Ceci averaged 3.45 hits/60 while this year Stecher (2.12), Dermott (2.75) and Klingberg (0.77) are lower.
Darnell Nurse was at 5.68 last year and is at 5.50 this year.
Mattias Ekholm was at 4.90 last year and is at 1.74 this season.
Brett Kulak had 3.66 last year and is at 1.44 this season.
Evan Bouchard was at 2.28 last year and sits at 1.14 this year.
Nurse is the only returning skater whose hit totals are similar. The reduction in hits has been noticeable up and down the lineup.
“I think, to a man, we can all be harder to play against, be more dialled and more detailed,” said Connor McDavid. “I think you’ll start to see that come in down the stretch. We still have 22 games left to find it (physicality). Everybody’s trying to find their game or find another level to their game.”
Nurse said this about their physical play…
“I think our team can be more physical as a whole,” Nurse said. “And that’s not just trying to run people through the wall, it is stick battles, winning that in front of the net battle both on the offensive and defensive side. There’s definitely an element of physicality that our team can bring. “A lot of the physicality comes through our work, either with the puck or away from the puck, getting the inside position. When you’re playing that way, you’re a hard team to play against.”
“You have to be, committed to finishing check, but then also there is the technical part, as much as you are committed to making a check, you have to have the speed, to get in there,” said head coach Kris Knoblauch. “There are certain situations where you can finish that check, so yeah, I would like to improve our physical play a little more, hits. But, we also have to be careful on running out of position to finish those checks.”
I don’t see the Oilers suddenly running around to make hits, but as outlined above they didn’t do that last season and they still had 40% more hits than we’ve seen this season. It is an issue, and the return of Kane or the addition of another player won’t solve it alone. Those additions will help, as it is always good to have players who are comfortable being physical. But the Oilers can be more physical than they have been.
When every player, except for Nurse, has a significant drop in their physicality from last year, it is easy to say it is a team-wide issue.
Every team becomes more physical in the playoffs, so I expect that, but it has to become a habit and right now, it isn’t one.
Apr 18, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Edmonton Oilers goaltender Calvin Pickard (30) during the second period against the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
PARTING SHOTS…
— I think we will see Calvin Pickard start tomorrow. It will be the first time in the regular season he’s made consecutive starts with the Oilers. He did start Game 4 and Game 5 v. Vancouver in round two last year, and was decent. Pickard played very well in Carolina and he’s earned a second-straight start. At the same time, it will get Stuart Skinner’s attention and I’d guess the organization is hopeful he will rebound like he did last year in the playoffs.
After sitting out those two games versus Vancouver, Skinner made 15 consecutive starts and allowed two goals or fewer in 11 of those starts. He was outduelled Jake Oettinger and had the exact same Sv% and a lower GAA as Sergei Bobrovsky after being sat. Skinner has shown he can bounce back, and they need to him to do that again. I expect he will start Thursday against Montreal.
Nurse practiced today and Knoblauch said it is likely Nurse plays tomorrow.
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